Labour market information as a practical policy tool for pandemic recovery
Labour and social protection statistics play an essential role in how member States can achieve decent work for all - and in the ILO's support of their efforts. Such a role has gained an even greater momentum since the outset of the crisis.
23 June 2021
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by Diego Rei, ILO Specialist, Employment and Labour Market Policies
Since March 2020, determining the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the wellbeing of populations has become a paramount but certainly challenging objective of governments. While compelling, real time -or reasonably lagged- information about the impact on poverty and the labour force was hardly available. Even basic questions to identify changes in work modalities, the number of people who lost their jobs or the number of households that lost sources of income and became exposed to the risk of poverty became daunting. As a result, primary inputs for the design and budgeting of policy responses became deficient.
Against the above backdrop, a handful of Caribbean countries pursued the undertaking of regular household surveys. Their collection of data was not without sizable pandemic-induced hindrances, notably linked to the need to switch to telephone based interviews and adapt questionnaires to the new format. The majority, however, relied on second-best solutions deriving information from (usually online) surveys not based on probabilistic samples; administrative data such as changes in the number of contributors to social protection schemes; the number of applications for emergency financial help or the number of reported dismissals by public and private sectors; consultations; and even anecdotal evidence.
Absence or limited availability of reliable data posed and will continue to pose challenges in terms of design of policy response, especially when confronted with a shrinking fiscal space. Notwithstanding any other obstacle to actual policy implementation, risks may include wrongful targeting; insufficient coverage and/or depth of assistance; or inadequately handling of legislative gaps (for instance those concerning remote work, treatment of leave days or occupational health and safety).
As recovery kicks in and countries develop and implement forthcoming policy responses, it is crucial to tackle some of the pre-pandemic data related challenges including non-universally regular collection, barriers to access by third parties, limited analysis, and lack of understanding and interest within the public. To increase their chances of success countries should focus on the root causes of such situation. Those include the irregular and/or insufficient funding for operations and staffing of statistical institutes, the improvable availability of statistical tools needed to run a modern labour market information system (for example, questionnaires, tablets, data entry software, and single registries); and the inadequate dissemination of results to broader audiences and media.
In addition, we have to consider the challenge of accurately depicting the post-pandemic world. International data highlight how new working modalities including remote, ‘contract’ and platform work emerged or consolidated; how vulnerabilities worsened for women, youth, workers in the informal economy, migrant workers, workers with disabilities and children; and how some industries expanded (for instance health care and logistics) and other shrank (such as hospitality). Whether these trends are confirmed, temporary or lasting for the Caribbean has yet to be determined and will require suitable tools.
Last, but not least, it is essential to consider collecting and utilizing data for ex-post evaluation of recovery policies and programmes to measure their effectiveness and detect areas for improvement. Governments and social partners are encouraged to assess whether results from implementation reflected expected ones along dimensions such as maintaining employment levels, ensuring survival for small and medium enterprises, and preventing spikes in poverty incidence. They can also identify any lessons to be learned for the future and most notably whether responses to the COVID-19 situation can be helpful to cope with other crises like those caused by extreme weather events.
Since March 2020, determining the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the wellbeing of populations has become a paramount but certainly challenging objective of governments. While compelling, real time -or reasonably lagged- information about the impact on poverty and the labour force was hardly available. Even basic questions to identify changes in work modalities, the number of people who lost their jobs or the number of households that lost sources of income and became exposed to the risk of poverty became daunting. As a result, primary inputs for the design and budgeting of policy responses became deficient.
Against the above backdrop, a handful of Caribbean countries pursued the undertaking of regular household surveys. Their collection of data was not without sizable pandemic-induced hindrances, notably linked to the need to switch to telephone based interviews and adapt questionnaires to the new format. The majority, however, relied on second-best solutions deriving information from (usually online) surveys not based on probabilistic samples; administrative data such as changes in the number of contributors to social protection schemes; the number of applications for emergency financial help or the number of reported dismissals by public and private sectors; consultations; and even anecdotal evidence.
Absence or limited availability of reliable data posed and will continue to pose challenges in terms of design of policy response, especially when confronted with a shrinking fiscal space. Notwithstanding any other obstacle to actual policy implementation, risks may include wrongful targeting; insufficient coverage and/or depth of assistance; or inadequately handling of legislative gaps (for instance those concerning remote work, treatment of leave days or occupational health and safety).
As recovery kicks in and countries develop and implement forthcoming policy responses, it is crucial to tackle some of the pre-pandemic data related challenges including non-universally regular collection, barriers to access by third parties, limited analysis, and lack of understanding and interest within the public. To increase their chances of success countries should focus on the root causes of such situation. Those include the irregular and/or insufficient funding for operations and staffing of statistical institutes, the improvable availability of statistical tools needed to run a modern labour market information system (for example, questionnaires, tablets, data entry software, and single registries); and the inadequate dissemination of results to broader audiences and media.
In addition, we have to consider the challenge of accurately depicting the post-pandemic world. International data highlight how new working modalities including remote, ‘contract’ and platform work emerged or consolidated; how vulnerabilities worsened for women, youth, workers in the informal economy, migrant workers, workers with disabilities and children; and how some industries expanded (for instance health care and logistics) and other shrank (such as hospitality). Whether these trends are confirmed, temporary or lasting for the Caribbean has yet to be determined and will require suitable tools.
Last, but not least, it is essential to consider collecting and utilizing data for ex-post evaluation of recovery policies and programmes to measure their effectiveness and detect areas for improvement. Governments and social partners are encouraged to assess whether results from implementation reflected expected ones along dimensions such as maintaining employment levels, ensuring survival for small and medium enterprises, and preventing spikes in poverty incidence. They can also identify any lessons to be learned for the future and most notably whether responses to the COVID-19 situation can be helpful to cope with other crises like those caused by extreme weather events.