Policy Brief
El Niño 2026–2027 and the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean: a causal chain from climate to employment and labour institutions
This policy brief examines the foreseeable effects of El Niño 2026–2027 on the world of work in Latin America and the Caribbean. It analyses the direct and indirect channels through which changes in rainfall patterns and ecosystem services may affect food security, public health, disaster risk, economic activity, employment and incomes. It also identifies the subregions, productive sectors and groups of workers most exposed. The brief emphasizes that the labour market impacts of El Niño are not predetermined, but depend on the strength of labour institutions, the coverage of social protection systems and the proactivity of public policies, including those aimed at climate change adaptation and disaster resilience.
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Fabio BertranouDeputy Regional Director of the ILO for Latin America and the Caribbean
El Niño 2026–2027 could disproportionately affect employment, incomes and working conditions across Latin America and the Caribbean. Droughts, extreme rainfall, flooding and heatwaves may disrupt agriculture, fisheries, energy, transport and other productive sectors, with particularly severe consequences for informal, rural and outdoor workers. The phenomenon could also exacerbate food insecurity, child labour and occupational safety and health risks.
These impacts are not predetermined. Social protection, social dialogue, labour inspection, public employment services and proactive measures can help mitigate labour market losses and protect the workers and communities most exposed. The policy brief sets out short-, medium- and long-term responses to strengthen institutional resilience, support climate change adaptation and improve preparedness for extreme weather events.
Additional details
Author(s)
- Fabio Bertranou
References
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