Conflicts and Climate Change in South Sudan 2012-2023

Since its independence in 2011, South Sudan has confronted persistent challenges from conflict and climate change, profoundly disrupting its economic and social stability. This study analyzes the economic impacts of conflict and climate shocks—specifically floods and droughts—on South Sudan from 2012 to 2023, employing innovative remote sensing techniques and geospatial data.

Using nighttime light intensity as a proxy for local economic activity, the study quantifies the effects of conflict fatalities and flooding on economic performance and employment. Results indicate that conflict has had a significant and enduring negative impact: areas within 10 km of five conflict fatalities experienced a 8.9% decline in local employment in the first year, with cumulative losses reaching 17.8% over three years. Similarly, flooding in 2021 led to a 4.9% reduction in employment during the flood year and a 12.1% reduction in the following year, underscoring the prolonged labour market disruptions caused by conflicts and climate shocks.

The study also examines specific events, such as the 2016 Battle of Juba and the 2021 floods, producing high-resolution maps of affected areas. By adopting a pixel-level analytical approach, this research captures localized GDP and employment effects that broader regional analyses might overlook, offering valuable insights for targeted policy interventions.