Employment Diagnostic Analysis

Introduction

The Uganda labour market statistics show that in 2014, GDP expanded by 17.3 percent at 2009/10 market prices. Uganda’s economy has been relatively stable over the last twenty years within the context of several macro-economic reforms starting with the structural adjustment programs in early 1990s. However, these reforms have not created enough decent and productive jobs to absorb and keep up with a high population growth rate (3.03%). Empirical evidence shows that for every one percent point increase in GDP, the economy has created less than a percent point in jobs (0.04). Hence, in an economy with excess labour supply, this result is a yardstick of ‘jobless growth’ and hence a potential cause of rising unemployment.

The 2015 ILO-SWTS indicates that many young job seekers in Uganda experience barriers to employment during their job search, such as; not enough jobs available (34 percent), and requirements for jobs were higher (26 percent). Out of an estimated 8,507,000 young Ugandans aged 15-29, about 270,000 are discouraged, with the proportion slightly higher for females (about 4 percent) compared to that of males (3 percent). It is against this background that an Employment Diagnostic Analysis (EDA) is being undertaken. This EDA process will involve the Ministry of Gender, Labour and Social Development (MGLSD), as the host and lead partner and will have a National Steering Committee (NSC) composed of ILO tripartite constituents, relevant government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDA’s) and academia who will play an oversight.

Project Goal
The Employment Diagnostic Analysis is targeted at understanding the nature of the deficiency of productive employment and the context-specific constraints, challenges and opportunities for increasing productive employment through sustainable and inclusive job-rich growth as a basis for a sharper and more effective focus of policies and strategies on productive employment.

Objective

The development objective of EDA is to generate stakeholder understanding on job-rich inclusive economic growth and just structural transformation. It is important to note that structural transformation is explicitly acknowledged as a process that unfolds through deep-rooted and far-reaching interaction between different economic sectors. The EDA thus will incorporate a holistic approach that explores inter-sectoral relations, up- and downward linkages and dynamic spill-over effects.

Expected Outcome

The Employment Diagnostic Analysis will focus to achieve two main Outcomes:

• Increased stakeholder appreciation, participation and ownership of the EDA process and outcomes with a focus on job-rich economic growth and inclusive structural transformation
• High-quality information on employment is available and accessible to policy makers and the general public, in order to inform policy and investment decisions towards a just inclusive structural transformation and job-rich growth

Deliverables/Activities

EDA steps to be undertaken are as follows:

• Setting up a National Steering Committee to secure ownership and engage in Pre Studies to assess data availability and data quality;
• Situational Analysis to ascertain tentative and broad conclusions on the main challenges, constraints and opportunities for achieving inclusive and sustainable development and poverty reduction;
• Diagnostic Analysis for prioritization, sequencing and focus on policy development, planning and design of interventions. (Joint Employment Diagnostic)