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Modelling for Social Governance


Depending on the state of development most countries redistribute between up to 35 per cent of their Gross National Income through their national social protection systems. These include pensions, health care, unemployment benefits, social assistance and other social security transfers. Maintaining the financial and fiscal viability of these transfer flows requires sound quantitative management and planning.

Social Budgeting is a method to enhance the quality of the quantitative management of the social protection sector. This website offers you the possibility of obtaining a generic version of the ILO Social Budget Model as a tool for social budgeting. The model forecasts national social expenditure and its components for both the short and medium term and establishes its financing structure. It projects income and expenditure of the social sector and simulates the effects of alternative social policy strategies on social security contributions and government budgets. Social budgeting thus serves the planning needs of the Ministries of Labour, Finance and Economic Planning as well as those of social security institutions. The methodology has so far been applied to the social protection sectors in Egypt, Slovakia, Poland, Ukraine, Panama and Turkey.

By obtaining the generic model version and its manual you do not have a ready made model for your country. There is a lot of work to be done before you can start advising your government on social protection financing. You have to adapt model components and input a whole range of national data. The model is easy to modify. All it takes is knowledge of MS-EXCEL and for some parts VISUAL BASIC.

The model is not perfect, neither is it final. Nor is it intended to be ever final. The version you find reports on work in progress. Each time we apply the concept to a new country we learn and improve some aspects of it. We hope that some of you will do the same and let us know about it. All interested social protection planners and researchers are invited to enter into a technical dialogue with the ILO team and to contribute to the improvement of the methodology. We aim to create an international expert network on social budgeting. Let us hear from you, contact us at or the team members directly.

We are also in the process of publishing a book on Social Budgeting which will form part of our series of training manuals.

Furthermore, the Social Budgeting team has been providing training on the Social Budget model not only within the framework of our technical cooperation projects in member States but also as a standard technical course in cooperation with the ILO's International Training Centre.

Updated by JD. Approved by ER. Last update: 1 July 2000