The COVID 19 health crisis and the associated measures of confinement will have devastating consequences for micro and small business operations and will disrupt many existing value chains. This in turn will lead to loss of income and sharp increases in unemployment. The estimated negative growth effect for African economies for example in early April 2020 was estimated to be between -2% and -8% .

• See here the ILO webpage on the employment impact of COVID 19 
• See here Enterprise department brief: Interventions to support enterprises during the COVID-19 pandemic and recovery
• See here the Policy Brief on the Enabling Environment for Sustainable Enterprises and the Post-COVID-19 Rapid Response

Those most affected by the economic downturn will be the first to succumb to the pressure of restarting operations, even if this means taking health risks, in order to get out of a dire economic situation. Here a few resources of how a post crisis recovery might play out in developing countries:

•   World Bank Research on Post-Ebola Recovery in Liberia. Interesting resource with empirical data
• An article comparing effects of SARS on Chinese economy to likely effect of COVID
• Quick and easy read on informal food markets and COVID
• UN W est  Africa Study on Regional Effects of Ebola,  p. 51 onward