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CISDOC database

Document ID (ISN)111272
CIS number 10-0799
ISSN - Serial title 1351-0711 - Occupational and Environmental Medicine
Year 2009
Convention or series no.
Author(s) Warren N., Meijster T., Heederik D., Tielemans E.
Title A dynamic population-based model for the development of work-related respiratory health effects among bakery workers
Bibliographic information Dec. 2009, Vol.66, No.12, p.810-817. Illus. 39 ref.
Internet access A_dynamic_population-based_model.pdf [in English]
Abstract This article presents a dynamic population-based model for the development of sensitization and respiratory symptoms in bakery workers. The model simulates a population of individual workers longitudinally, and tracks the development of work-related sensitization and respiratory symptoms in each worker. The model has three components: a multi-stage disease model describing the development of sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker over time; an exposure model describing occupational exposure to flour dust and allergens; and a basic population model describing the length of a worker's career in the bakery sector and the influx of new workers. Each worker's disease state is modelled independently using a discrete time Markov Chain, updated yearly using each individual's simulated exposure. A Bayesian analysis of data from a recent epidemiological study provided estimates of the yearly transition probabilities between disease states. For non-atopic/non-sensitised workers the estimated probabilities of developing moderate (upper respiratory) symptoms and progression to severe (lower respiratory) symptoms are 0.4% and 1.1% per mg/m3/year of flour dust, respectively, and approximately twice these for atopic workers. The model predicts that 36% of workers with severe symptoms are sensitised to wheat and 22% to α-amylase. The predicted mean latency period for respiratory symptoms was 10.3 years.
Descriptors (primary) allergies; sensitization; symptoms; respiratory diseases; bakery products industry; risk factors
Descriptors (secondary) amylase; subject variability; exposure evaluation; mathematical models; prediction formulae
Document type D - Periodical articles
Subject(s) Occupational pathology
Food, beverage and tobacco industries
Broad subject area(s) Occupational medicine, epidemiology
Chemical safety
Browse category(ies) Allergies
Food industry
Diseases of the respiratory system (except for pneumoconiosis & similar)