Ces documents ont Ă©tĂ© prĂ©parĂ©s par l'Institut international d'Ă©tudes sociales (IIES) dans le cadre du projet conjoint Â« Relever les dĂ©fis sociaux et du marchĂ© du travail dans lâ€™Union europĂ©enne en vue d'une mondialisation durable Â», qui a Ă©tĂ© rĂ©alisĂ©e par la Commission europĂ©enne et lâ€™Organisation internationale du travail (OIT). La sĂ©rie spĂ©ciale de documents de discussion fournit une analyse approfondie qui a servi de base pour les deux rapports de synthĂ¨se. Ceux deux rapports rĂ©sument les principales conclusions du projet.
- DP1: Literature review of past crises - (pdf 1,084 KB)
There is a robust modern literature on financial crises that policy makers in newly affected countries can potentially draw from. The existing literature has yet to fully account for the large size of the crises and the long run effects, but still there are a number of findings that may help guide policy in the context of the current crisis. This paper is an attempt to draw the main lessons from this literature, with a special focus for the macro-economic impact of financial crises.
- DP2: Republic of Korea â€“ Case study of past crises - (pdf 920 KB)
This paper examines the effects and implications of a number of measures and reforms undertaken by the Republic of Korea during the 1997 crisis. In particular, in some cases reforms and programme introductions laid the groundwork for the governmentâ€™s current response to mitigating the labour market effects of the crisis. In other instances, reforms while initially successful have created distributional considerations where risks of job loss are unevenly distributed.
- DP3: Argentina â€“ Case study of past crises - (pdf 411 KB)
In the context of the global financial crisis of 2008-09, Argentinaâ€™s has fared relatively well compared to other countries of similar characteristics. Moreover, compared to its own experience during the 2001-02 crisis, Argentina has managed to recover faster and avoid the devastating impacts brought by the past crisis. And while the origins of past and current crises are different in nature and scope, the ability to respond in an efficient and effective manner in the current crisis is tied very much to the countryâ€™s previous experiences â€“ in fact, the groundwork for many of the current programmes and measures was laid during the previous crisis and subsequent government reforms. The effectiveness of past policy efforts have thus played a role in the positive performance of Argentina during the current crisis. Understanding these dynamics and shedding light on the effectiveness of the Argentina policy responses are the main objectives of this paper.
- DP4: Determinants of global imbalances - (pdf 476 KB)
This paper offers an enriched analysis of underlying determinants of current account positions. In particular, it focuses on the interactions between current account imbalances and changes in labour supply, capital account liberalization, income inequality and social policies. Given the global nature of the phenomenon, the analysis presented here is based on broad country coverage, accounting for country heterogeneity. In order to cover long-run trends, the analysis presented here dates back to the 1980s or â€“ in case of data limitations â€“ to the early 1990s. The two novelties of our analysis are that (i) we include wage share measures as an important determinant to current account balances and (ii) we add income inequality measures such as the Gini coefficient and household poverty measures into our regression analysis.
- DP5: Global fiscal stimulus - (pdf 667 KB)
In response to the global financial and economic crisis that started in 2008, countries around the world embarked on an unprecedented level of intervention with aims to keeping the economy buoyant and stop a full-scale assault on the labour market. Although world economic growth returned to positive territory, a number of labour market challenges persist. At the same time, massive public spending, depressed economic activity, and reduced revenue are causing considerable fiscal pressure. As such, policy makers are urged to bring public expenditures under control, including scaling back programmes introduced as part of stimulus measures. The aim of this paper is threefold: first it gives an overview of the global stimulus spending; second it examines their effectiveness; and third, it presents a snapshot of recent fiscal consolidation measures.
- DP6: How to deal with the job crisis - (pdf 830 KB)
The aim of this note is to present an overview of the current understanding of the role of fiscal policy in promoting an employment recovery, taking into account different labour market characteristics such as segmentation and different wage bargaining institutions. Specifically, the note discusses the resilience of economies with segmented labour market. Regarding fiscal policy, it demonstrates that wage bargaining institutions that also include hours worked in their bargaining process typically leads to improved employment outcomes, despite the fact that output and real wages are reacting in a similar fashion. Finally, the note discusses the importance of targeted active labour market policies in promoting employment creation: When such policies specifically increase search effort of the unemployed, their effectiveness is multiplied in comparison to a general spending increase that gets diluted in the economic system.
- DP7: Dual Labour Markets with search costs - (pdf 698 KB)
General equilibrium models with non-competitive labour market accounting for the dynamics of wages and employment have become increasingly used. For the most part, however, these general equilibrium models have been applied to advanced economies while the case of developing economies with dual labour market has been mainly addressed in partial equilibrium framework. This paper models an economy with an informal labour market along the line of the search and matching framework and revisits three main issues. The first issue is the dynamics of the informal sector over the business cycle. The second issue is the impact of informality on economic volatility. A third issue is the extent to which the interaction between dual labour markets modifies the standard properties of search models.
- DP8: Active labour market policies and positive fiscal multiplier - (pdf 289 KB)
This paper discusses the efficiency of fiscal intervention. In particular, this paper models a new instrument for fiscal policy, active labour market policies, and identifies a new transmission channel for fiscal policy, the labour market. In the model below, active labour market policies play a key role in supporting new jobs, by easing the matching process between searching workers and firms with job vacancies. For that purpose, the traditional matching function is extended to incorporate labour market spending. The Cobb-Douglas matching function is now made of three elements: searching workers, vacancies and active labour market spending. There are ambivalent transmission channels. Fiscal spending crowds out private consumption and investment in line with the Ricardian properties associated with intertemporal optimizing private agents. The increase in the interest rate following fiscal expansion also affects negatively the discounted value of an additional match and reduces the incentive for firms to hire an additional worker. Labour market spending however improves the functioning of the labour market and increases the rate of matching.
- DP9: Collective bargaining and the fiscal multiplier - (pdf 364 KB)
The current economic crisis has led several governments to conduct discretionary fiscal expansion to foster aggregate demand. The question of the effectiveness of fiscal policy has attracted an increasing interest within academic circles. A new body of literature on fiscal policy, making use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, has recently emerged. In this paper, we aim at contributing to this new literature with a particular focus on the effects of expansionary fiscal policy on the labour market. In particular, we focus on the following three questions: (i) What are the effects of an increase in government spending on economic activity? (ii) How do changes in the labour input, induced by the rise in government spending, adjust along its two margins (hours of work per employed worker and employment) ? (iii) Is the choice of the bargaining scheme important for the propagation of government spending shocks to key labour market variables?
- DP10: Defining â€śgreenâ€ť: issues and considerations - (pdf 400 KB)
The paper involves in the discussion about proper â€śgreenâ€ť definitions and attempts to give meaning to the terms â€śgreen economyâ€ť, â€śgreen policyâ€ť and â€śgreen jobâ€ť for the purposes of the joint EC-ILO study. The paper goes beyond a direct application to the study by providing a review and a discussion of the various definitions of â€śgreenâ€ť that have been suggested by governments, organizations and the policy literature. Similarities and problems are elaborated and some conclusions on how to move forward are derived.
- DP11: Economic theories and methodologies to assess the impact of climate change on employment - (pdf 261 KB)
An essential aspect of this discussion paper is to present economic theories and methodologies to assess the impact of climate change on employment for the purposes of the joint EC-ILO study. The paper focuses on both empirical analysis and theoretical models by describing input-output (IO) models, Social accounting matrix (SAM), growth and real business cycles (RBC) models, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and econometric models.
- DP12: Policy options and instruments for a green economy - (pdf 503 KB)
The discussion paper examines the theoretical background of different instruments and the suite of available environmental policy instruments. In particular, the effectiveness of a range of potential green policy instruments on reducing CO2 emissions are analyzed extensively.
- DP13: The double dividend and environmental tax reforms in the European Union - (pdf 492 KB)
The paper explores how environmental policies and labour market policies can complement each other to achieve both objectives simultaneously. The paper discusses different versions of the double-dividend hypothesis and its importance in the context of global climate change. Environmental tax reforms (ETR) have often been inspired by the theoretical considerations of the double dividend hypothesis. These reforms, which were implemented across a range of EU Member States in the 1990s, are reviewed and explained. Additionally, the paper discusses the effectiveness of these reforms and reveals where improvements can be made.
- DP14: Green Policies in the EU: a review - (pdf 740 KB)
The discussion paper examines a variety of green policies that EU Member States have implemented to address environmental sustainability. The paper starts with presenting available green policy instruments, such as regulations, tax instruments, the EU emission trading system, research and development (R&D) and public investment. It further discusses how these instruments are adopted in different EU Member States. Furthermore, existing green labour market policies in the EU are examined and the policy gaps are discussed.
- DP15: Green stimulus measures - (pdf 724 KB)
The main purpose of this discussion paper is to examine the variety of green stimulus measures that EU Member States as well as other countries such as the U.S., China, the Republic of Korea and Japan have implemented in response to the recent global economic crisis. The paper presents a definition and the most common types of green stimulus measures. Furthermore, detailed analysis of the types of stimulus measures reported by countries, with a specific focus on measures designated as â€śgreenâ€ť is provided. Additionally, tax-related measures and government spending in various programs are examined. Finally, the paper discusses the size of green stimulus measures and explores their employment impacts.
- DP16: Green structural change: sectoral analysis and policy challenges - (pdf 976 KB)
The purpose of this discussion paper is to identify some of the potential challenges confronting workers and enterprises and to highlight areas where labour market and social policies can support workers to make a successful transition. The transition towards a greener economy can be described as structural change and structural change has always been characterized by massive employment transitions. The paper examines the nature and composition of employment in high and low carbon intensive industries, looking in particular at skill levels and wage share trends in the top 15 emitting industries. Moreover, a number of employment issues are analyzed, including the important question of possible net employment effects. Challenges that are likely to occur during the transition are discussed and adequate policy responses are developed. Labour market and social policies can help address challenges specific to the green transition.
- DP17: Economic Transition following an Emission Tax in a RBC Model with Endogenous Growth - (pdf 882 KB)
This paper investigates the short run and long run effects of introducing an emission tax. The model endogenises both the effect of damage by pollution as well as of emission tax distortions on macroeconomic variables, most importantly on economic growth. As such, it not only allows an analysis of economic fluctuations at business cycle frequency, but also a long run comparison between different environmental policy scenarios. We find that an emission tax, if its receipts are used to cut wage taxes, has a positive effect on employment and on the share of income attributed to workers. Green policy produces net distortions in the economy that will initially reduce output and growth compared to a business as usual scenario. However, accumulating environmental damages in the business as usual scenario eventually reduces its growth rate so much that the green scenario delivers net benefits. In our baseline calibration, the maximum negative net output effect of green policy is around 8%, while the effect turns positive after 90 years.