by
D.T. Nguyen and J.S. Bandara
Griffith University
Queensland, Australia
A Report Prepared under UNDP Technical Support Services 1
ILO East Asia Multidisciplinary Advisory Team (ILO/EASMAT)
ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific
Bangkok
July 1996
__________________________
* Unpublished document issued without formal editing by ILO. The responsibilities for opionions expressed in this document rest solely with the authors and its inclusion here does not constitute an endorsement by the ILO of the opionions expressed therein.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Abbreviations
List of Tables
List of Figures
2. OUTFLOW OF CONTRACT WORKERS
General Trends
Destination
Industry Occupation
Gender Composition
Regulations and Administration
Refugees and Asylum Seekers
Approved Emigration
4. SHORT-TERM DEPARTURES AND ILLEGAL MIGRANTS
5. EMIGRATION PRESSURE AND UNDERLYING FACTORS
Emigration Pressure
Wage and Income Differentials
Excess Demand for Labour in East and Southeast Asia
Domestic Over-Supply of Labour
Poverty and Malnourishment
Mobility and Willingness to Migrate
Economic Reform and Structural Changes
Labour Market
Remittances and Investment
Transfer of Skills and Experiences
Brain/Talent Drain
Administration of Labour Export
Data Collection and Further Studies
APPENDIX: PERSONS AND ORGANISATIONS CONSULTED
The purpose of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the ways in which structural economic changes interact with emigration pressure in Vietnam. A key objective of the study is to assemble and systematise information currently available on the Vietnamese side.
Contract Workers
The outflow of contract workers from Vietnam was around 11,000 in 1994, and there are some expectations that it will soon reach 50,000. East and Southeast Asia have received more than 50% of such workers in recent years. Three categories have dominated the industrial occupation of contract workers: light industry, particularly labour-intensive manufacturing; construction; and heavy industry. So far in the 1990s male workers have dominated the gender balance, but there has been a recent trend toward greater female participation. The State (including state-owned enterprises) holds a total monopoly over the recruitment of workers to be sent overseas. Before going, these workers typically must pay a security deposit equivalent to a one-way air ticket.
Permanent Emigrants
Numerically, the outflow of permanent migrants since 1975 has been far more important than that of short-term contract workers. There have been three major waves of such migrants. The first occurred in the aftermath of the end of the Vietnam War in 1975, and involved boat people from South Vietnam. The second took place around the time of the border war between Vietnam and China in 1979, when many ethnic Chinese left Vietnam by boat, joined by ethnic Vietnamese from both the North and the South. The third involved emigrants who obtained approval for resettlement through orderly departure programs. This flow increased sharply after 1989, when
Vietnam's relations with the West began to be normalised and the opening up of its economy began to proceed in earnest. This suggests that net effect of the reform process in Vietnam has been to increase rather than decrease the outflow of emigrants. The current outflow in this category is around 50,000 per year.
Informal and Illegal Emigrants
Anecdotal evidence suggests that a nontrivial proportion of those who are overseas for 3 months or longer are interested (or actually engaged) in gaining employment and/or extending their stay. While accurate data are difficult to obtain, there are estimates suggesting that the total number of illegal Vietnam-born migrants in foreign countries could be as high as 150,000.
Emigration Pressure
A preliminary, and conservative, estimate of the emigration pressure (i.e. the total number of people who wish to go abroad, and who are reasonably well qualified and endowed to do so) puts it at 300,000 persons per year.
Factors Underlying Emigration Pressure
A key demand pull factor underlying the emigration pressure has been the wide gap between Vietnam's wage and income levels and international levels. Further, as a result of rapid growth and industrialisation, in the NIEs (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) the domestic demand for labour has begun to exceed the domestic supply, and must be met increasingly by inflows of foreign workers. This represents another demand pull factor.
Vietnam's domestic over-supply of labour has been the major underlying supply push factor. Its excess supply of labour may be as high as 17% of the labour force. Poverty has been another important push factor. While the income differential factor influences people's preference of a place of residence over another, the poverty factor may actually compel people to move.
As the Vietnam-born communities in the main receiving countries grew rapidly during the past twenty years, networks of connections have grown in size and effectiveness, and there has been a noticeable increase in the willingness to emigrate and capacity to travel abroad.
Economic reform and structural changes during the past decade have increased labour mobility between industrial sectors and geographical areas. The opening of the economy and society to international influences has led to an influx of foreign visitors and the temporary return of many overseas Vietnamese (Viet Kieu). This serves to increase domestic residents' familiarity with foreign ways of life, thereby increasing the willingness/desire to go abroad.
While economic reform and closer ties with foreign countries have probably resulted in an increase in emigration pressure in the short-to-medium term, in the longer run, if they succeed in raising the standard of living and improving the economy's overall performance, they will also reduce emigration pressure.
Major Effects
It would be unrealistic to expect that legal emigration flows can make a significant impact on Vietnam's unemployment situation in the foreseeable future. The current annual rates of short-term labour export and approved permanent emigration combined represent no more than approximately 1% of the total number of unemployed people , and there are few prospects for a major increase.
As legal channels by themselves will not be sufficient to accommodate all of the country's emigration pressure, the spill-over into illegal and informal channels will be most likely to continue. The situation will warrant close monitoring and further investigation.
Remittances from contract workers are an important source of foreign exchange earnings for Vietnam. The annual value of this flow is estimated to be around US $250 million, equivalent to about 6% of total export value. To this should be added the remittances of Viet Kieu, about $200m - $300m per year.
In the medium-to-longer term, returning workers from overseas and visiting Viet Kieu can be expected to contribute to the dissemination of information regarding international business practices and foreign cultures.
It is important not to neglect the possibility that permanent emigration may impose a substantial cost on the country in terms of the talent and human capital being taken overseas.
Administrative Issues
There is a pressing need for more comprehensive and up-to-date information about the laws and regulations governing labour markets in the receiving countries, and about mechanisms for protecting the rights of workers overseas. Multilateral organisations can play a major role in addressing this need. In the medium term, it may be desirable to turn over to the private sector most of the recruitment and support activities currently undertaken by state-owned companies.
A high priority is to collect more data in this area, and to ensure that they are consistent and do meet the needs of policy analysis and decision-making. It will also be highly relevant to develop a more detailed understanding of the major issues.
List of Abbreviations
ADB - Asian Development Bank
ASEAN - Assosiation of South East Asia Nations
CMEA - Council of Mutual Economic Assistance
DAFELF - Department for Administration of Foreign Employed Labour Force
DILACO - Department for International Labour Cooperation
FDI - Foreign Direct Investment
GSO - General Statistical Office
ILO - International Labour Organisation
IOM - International Organisation for Migration
MOLISA - Ministry of Labour, War Invalids and Social Affaires
NIC - Newly Industrialised Countries
ODA - Official Development Assistance
ODP - Orderly Departure Program
UNDP - United Nations Development Programme
UNHCR - United Nations High Commision for Refugees
VIR - Vietnam Investment Reveiw
List of Tables
List of Figures
The purpose of this study is to contribute to a better understanding of the ways in which structural economic changes interact with emigration pressure in Vietnam. We propose to use the latter term, emigration pressure, as it is generally understood in the literature. Some authors, such as Bruni and Venturini (1991; 1995), tend to emphasise the supply side of the migration issue; that is, they consider the pressure to migrate predominantly from the viewpoint of an excess supply of labour at the source. Others, such as Schaeffer (1991) and Straubhaar (1993), place emphasis on the demand side as well (in terms of an excess demand for labour at the destination). In particular, Schaeffer (1991) distinguishes three concepts: emigration pressure, immigration pressure, and net migration pressure. The latter term encapsulates the situation "where more people want to leave a country than the countries that they wish to enter willingly accept" (Martin, 1994: 243).
In those terms, the focus of the present paper will be mainly on emigration. A key objective of the study is to assemble and systematise information currently available on the Vietnamese side. To keep the project within manageable limits, the willingness of receiving countries to accept migrants and contract workers from Vietnam will be considered only briefly. A full and proper treatment of such immigration pressure issues must be left to future research.
It is generally considered (particularly by the receiving countries) that while international migration flows may serve some immediate needs, by and large they are potentially problematic and should be reduced or discouraged. Such a view is implicit in, for example, a recent ILO publication (Bohning and Schloeter-Paredes, 1994) which argues that official development assistance (ODA) may be the best available means to reduce emigration pressure in developing countries. According to advocates of this approach, the other two major alternatives, namely foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade liberalisation (leading to increased trade flows between emigration and immigration countries, particularly in labour-intensive goods), have had a limited impact on emigration pressure. Decisions regarding FDI are taken by agents in the private sector whose motives often do not coincide with the desire to reduce such pressure in developing countries. Trade liberalisation efforts, while potentially effective in the long run, have been hampered in practice by various entrenched trade barries and restrictions. Thus, "governments should explore the possibility of using ODA to reduce emigration pressure" (Bohning and Schloeter-Paredes, 1994: 6).
In the same vein, it is of interest to investigate whether economic restructuring and liberalisation serve to lessen emigration pressure in a developing, transitional economy, such as Vietnam's. Conflicting tendencies are involved here. For example, it might be expected that, as the domestic economy is further integrated with the world economy, and as it progresses along its transitional path to the market system, living standards would rise and the incentive for emigrating would tend to diminish. At the same time, the opening of the local economy and the closer contact with foreign societies may provide many families with their first opportunity to send a family member overseas. Therefore, the net effect on emigration pressure is in principle ambiguous, and any indication of the likely outcome in practice would be of some policy relevance.
In comparison with other labour-exporting countries (such as the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India or Thailand) there are at least two sources of difficulties which apply especially to the study of Vietnam's emigration patterns. First, there is a severe shortage of data, even by the standards of developing countries. Second, memories of the Vietnam War and its legacies are still fresh in the mind of many people, so that even the analysis of what otherwise might be straightforward issues could become deeply entangled in irreconcilable controversy. This study is intended to focus on the economic aspects of emigration. This, of course, is not to deny that there are important political dimensions to the issues involved, but simply to keep the present analysis within manageable and practical boundaries.
Below, we shall interpret "emigration" as covering three broad groups of people. First, there is an outflow of short-term contract workers. The second group consists of approved permanent emigrants as well as refugees and asylum seekers. The third group includes (at least conceptually) persons who are temporarily overseas for non-employment purposes, e.g. to study or visit relatives, but who may be seeking employment and/or extensions of their stay, and persons who used illegal means to gain entry in a foreign country or who overstayed their foreign visas.
2. OUTFLOW OF CONTRACT WORKERS
General Trends
Table 1 gives the number of contract workers which Vietnam sent overseas each year during the 15-year period 1980-1994. In the early-1980s, this outflow was increased substantially, to a then annual peak of almost 26,000 people in 1982. The increase was partly a response to the need for an export item which would help to reduce the country's trade deficit and external debt vis-a-vis East European countries, particularly the former USSR. The workers were sent principally to Czechoslovakia and the USSR; smaller numbers went to East Germany and Bulgaria. Resentment among local workers (e.g. over the competition by the guest workers for scarce consumer goods) resulted in a sharp decline from about 1984 in the number of Vietnamese contract workers received by East European countries. In response, Vietnam began to send workers to Middle East countries such as Iraq, Algeria, and Lybia.
In the latter half of the 1980s, bilateral agreements with CMEA countries were renegotiated, and during the period 1987-1989 a second major wave of contract workers was sent to Eastern Europe (see Figure 1). The annual outflow reached an historical peak of 71,830 people in 1988. Of these, 30,567 were received by the USSR and 27,625 by East Germany.
After 1989, the outflow was severely reduced by socio-political changes in Eastern Europe and by the Gulf War. From 1992, efforts were made to increase the export of labour to other receiving countries, especially those in East Asia, such as Korea, Japan, and Taiwan. By the end of 1994, the rate of outflow had returned to over 10,000 workers per year. At present, there are some expectations that it will soon reach 50,000.
All of the figures cited above refer to gross outflows. As yet, there are insufficient data regarding the flows of returnees to enable estimation of a consistent series of net outflows, or the outstanding stock of workers overseas.
The numbers can be examined in the context of outflows of workers from other, more established Asian labour-exporting countries. As Table 2 shows, Vietnam's export of contract labour has remained on a scale far smaller than that of the other countries, especially the Philippines and Thailand.
Destination
The geographical distribution of the outflow in recent years is summarised in Table 3. Despite Vietnam's conscious efforts to diversify and develop links with other labour-importing countries, the Middle East and Eastern Europe continue to be important employers of Vietnamese contract workers. As of 1994, Middle East countries accounted for almost one-third of the annual outflow, while Eastern Europe took about 15 per cent. Nevertheless, the growing importance of East and Southeast Asian countries as labour importers has been unmistakable: their share grew from 26 per cent in 1992 to about 53-54 per cent in 1993 and 1994 (see also Figure 2).
Such a concentrated orientation toward the Asian region is noteworthy in comparison with the experiences of other labour-exporting countries. For example, in 1993 the share of total labour export going to Southeast Asia from Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the Philippines was, respectively, 5.9, 3.3, 3.0, 6.8 and 24.1 (Wickramasekara, 1995: 6).
Vietnam's more concentrated pattern is consistent with the overall strength of its economic ties with East and Southeast Asian countries. The latter countries dominate the list of the top 10 countries with FDI in Vietnam (Phan, Bandara and Nguyen, 1996) and are by far its largest trading partners (Le, Nguyen and Bandara, 1996). Le, Nguyen and Bandara find that trade flows between Vietnam and these countries in recent years have been larger than predicted by a gravity model which takes into account each trading partner's economic size and level of development, as well as the geographical distance between them. By contrast, trade between Vietnam and Western Hemisphere countries (notably the US) has remained lower than model predictions. These results suggest that, in developing closer ties with other countries, Vietnam began with a heavy emphasis on its nearest neighbours -- but also that, as the country's process of integration with the world economy extends to areas further away, the above concentration will probably be diluted.
Industry Occupation
Table 4 presents an analysis of the industrial occupation of the approximately 300,000 contract workers who went overseas during the period 1980-1994. Three categories have dominated, accounting for almost 90 per cent of the total. Light industry, particularly labour-intensive manufacturing, represents just over 34 per cent, while construction accounts for slightly less than this percentage. Heavy industry represents another 21 per cent of the total (see also Figure 3).
While it is difficult to make direct comparisons of the above with the occupational structure of contract workers from other labour-exporting countries (due to a lack of consistent data) it is clear that typically unskilled workers in the services sector represent a far higher share of the total outflow than in Vietnam's case. For example, the outflow from Sri Lanka and the Philippines have been dominated by the categories of housemaids and entertainers. Vietnam's historical backgrounds suggest that, despite the transition to the market system, some unease will probably remain with the idea of exporting services-related labour.
Gender Composition
As Table 5 indicates, in the early 1990s male workers dominated the gender balance among the contract workers, although the proportion of female workers has risen steadily, from 3 per cent in 1992 to more than 18 per cent in 1994. The latter represents a trend toward the original situation in the 1980s, when female workers had accounted for a 51 per cent share of the outflow to the USSR, 37 per cent to East Germany, and 25 per cent to Czechoslovakia -- respectively, the three most important receiving countries then. On the whole, nevertheless, it is clear that in the 1990s Vietnam's women have featured far less importantly in their country's export of labour services than the women of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, or the Philippines (see Table 6).
The higher female proportions in the above cases can be related to the importance of domestic workers in the occupational structure of labour export. As shown in Table 7, Vietnam maintains a ban on contracts which allow female workers to go overseas to work as domestic helpers, entertainers and massage technicians. This restriction was introduced because of fears that the women may be subjected to sexual exploitation by their overseas employers (Farooq-i-Azam, 1994: 8). Given that there have been prominent examples of such exploitation in the recent past, and given the country's unease with labour export in the services sector in general, the ban may continue for some time.
Regulations and Administration
A number of other aspects of the administration of labour export are summarised in Table 7. It is noteworthy that the State (including state-owned enterprises) held a total monopoly over the (legal) recruitment of workers to be sent overseas. By contrast, government recruitment represents no more than 2 per cent of the total in the Philippines, Bangladesh, India, or Thailand. Table 8 lists the (state-owned) companies which have been licensed to recruit workers for the overseas employment market. Three companies have dominated recruitment activities during the three years ended 1994. Of these, two (Vinaconex and LOD) are based in the North (Hanoi) and the third (Sulexco) is based in the South (Ho Chi Minh City).
Figure 4 depicts the system employed by Vietnam for managing labour export. The state monopoly over recruitment has been a key feature since workers began to be sent overseas in 1980. Between 1980 and 1991 workers, trainees and specialists were sent mainly under bilateral agreements between the Vietnamese and Eastern European governments. The Deparment for International Labour Cooperation (DILACO) of the Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) was responsible for implementing these agreements. After 1992 the department was renamed the Department for Administration of Foreign Employed Labour Force (DAFELF).
The Department's main functions include the formulation of guidelines regarding the export of labour; provision of information on foreign labour markets and other market research activities; protection of contract workers' rights and interests; and facilitating the settlement of disputes between workers and employers. It has a number of appointed representatives abroad, both for marketing purposes and for protecting workers' rights. It is responsible for granting licenses to organisations which operate as recruitment agencies (see Table 8) and includes within its organisational structure a number of training centres which provide workers with pre-departure courses in foreign languages, cultural awareness and orientation, and basic occupational skills. Similar courses, especially those dealing with languages and cultural orientation, are also offered from time to time by the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) .
In their overseas marketing activities, the Department and the licensed recruitment agencies tend to highlight certain strengths of the Vietnamese labour force, such as adaptability, discipline, hard-working nature and high skill level. At the same time, it is recognised that there are some areas of weakness compared to other labour-exporting countries, such as sheer physical strength and English facility. To rectify the latter weakness, training courses receive considerable emphasis; they are seen as an inportant component of the Department's portfolio of reponsibilities.
Contract workers must pay the recruiting agencies a proportion (not more than 8%) of their basic salary. In practice, some agencies may charge more than the nominated fee, and there is some evidence of over-charging through middlemen, so that the total fee amounts to 2-3 months' expected salary; that is, approximately US$400-600 (Farooq-i-Azam, 1994: 11-12).
Before going overseas, typically the workers must also pay a security deposit equivalent to a one-way air ticket, in case they fail to complete the time stated in the contract and need to be provided with passage home. Most workers have to borrow to make the deposit upfront. The deposit is refundable upon the worker's satisfactory completion of the contract.
The available evidence suggests that the up-front costs in Vietnam of securing an overseas job is approximately US$ 600-1000, still relatively low compared with other labour-exporting countries: US$ 1,000 - 2,000 in Bangladesh in 1986, US$ 800 in India in 1985, US$ 917 in Pakistan in 1983 and US$ 400 in the Philippines in 1987 (ILO, 1988). With inflation, and consequent increases in the nominal salaries payable by thr foreign employers, it is expected that the above figures (for the other countries) need some upward adjustments to reflect current conditions.
Numerically, the outflow of permanent migrants since 1975 has been far more important than that of short-term contract workers. As Table 9 shows, Vietnam-born immigrants represent a sizable proportion of the total migrant population in a number of industrialised countries. For example, as of 1990, there were more than 543,000 Vietnam-born persons in the US, representing 2.7 per cent of all immigrants. Other countries with large numbers of resettled Vietnamese include Australia (122,300 persons in 1991), Canada (113,600 in 1991), Germany (95,500 in 1993), and France (33,700 in 1993). Note that some of the people included in the above figure for Germany first went there as contract workers rather than intending immigrants.
To gain a better understanding of the build-up over time of such large numbers of immigrants, one needs to examine the annual arrivals data. Such data are presented for a representative receiving country, namely Australia, in Table 10. Two distinct incoming waves can be seen from the data (see also Figure 5). The first began in 1975-76, rose sharply around 1979 and levelled off around 1983. These movements reflected a surge around 1979-1980 in the number of "boat people" who typically landed in countries of first asylum in East and Southeast Asia but who sought permanent resettlement elsewhere.
The second wave, centred around the period 1990-1992, coincided with a time of considerable change and reform in Vietnam, one which confirmed that the country was on its transition to a more open and market-oriented economy. In particular, many improvements were made in the bilateral relations between Vietnam and Western countries, thus paving the way for co-ordinated action by both sides to move large numbers of legal emigrants to the West. Below we examine in turn each of these two categories of emigrants.
Refugees and Asylum Seekers
Numerically, the largest outflow of Vietnamese migrants occurred at the beginning of the first wave as identified above. In the immediate aftermath of the defeat of South Vietnam and the conclusion of the Vietnam War in 1975, hundreds of thousands of people left Vietnam (almost exclusively from the South). Most were resettled in the US, with smaller numbers going to Canada, France, Australia, and other countries.
The outflow then subsided, until around the time of the border war between Vietnam and China in 1979, when many ethnic Chinese left Vietnam by boat, joined by ethnic Vietnamese (both the Northern and the Southern halves of the country were involved). Estimates of the combined outflow in these two episodes are of the order of 1 million people (see Tables 11 and 12). Boat people continued to leave Vietnam in significant numbers until recent years.
The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated that, between 1975 and 1995, a total of 839,228 Vietnam-born people arrived in countries of first asylum in East and Southeast Asia. (To these must be added those who went directly to countries in other regions, particularly the US.) Of the above total, 754,842 were offered resettlement, mainly in the US (55%), Australia (15%), Canada (14%), France (4%), the UK (3%), and Germany (2%); see Figure 6.
In recent years, the number of people in refugee camps in Asia who were accepted as refugees and offered resettlement has decreased quite considerably. In 1990, the relevant figure was 23,817. By 1995, it had dropped to 2,152 (see Table 13). Correspondingly, there has been a rising trend in the number of people repatriated to Vietnam (see Table 14). While the trend stalled in 1994 and 1995, plans have been announced to repatriate all remaining camp residents who have not been selected for resettlement, despite the vigorous protests of many such residents. As at 1 September 1995 there were 38,031 such people, with the largest groups being in camps in Hong Kong (20,898) and Thailand (5,128); see Table 15. By the end of June 1996, the numbers had been further reduced to around 16,000 in Hong Kong, and 4,000 in Thailand, while Malaysia and Singapore had closed their camps. China has stated that it wishes to have no asylum seekers remaining in Hong Kong when the territory reverts to Chinese rule at the end of June 1997.
Approved Emigration
Soon after the 1979-1980 surge in the number of boat people, countries of permanent resettlement as well as those of first asylum began to find ways to encourage potential asylum seekers to remain in Vietnam and to apply for resettlement through approved channels involving officials of both Vietnam and the receiving countries. The official policy of most of these countries since then has been that this would be a fairer, more rational, and less hazardous way of meeting the needs and desires of all potential migrants, in comparison with the illegal crossing of borders, whether by boat or over land. This view partially explains the insistence that refugee camps in be phased out.
The approved emigration programmes were known by a variety of names, corresponding to an array of schemes targetted at certain special groups (such as children of mixed blood, or officials of the previous regime) as well as at family reunion. By the end of 1995, the number of people resettled overseas through these "orderly departure programmes" and assisted by IOM had exceeded 600,000 (see Table 16). Again, the largest numbers went to the US (about 440,000), Canada (61,000), Australia (47,000), France (23,000) and Germany (12,000); see Figure 7. These figures represent a slight underestimation of the numbers of resettlers actually accepted, in that some of them were directly assisted by their own relatives overseas in making travel arrangments and were therefore not recorded by IOM.
For our present purposes, it is particularly interesting that the annual flow of approved emigrants from Vietnam increased sharply after 1989, when Vietnam's relations with the West began to be normalised and the opening up of its economy began to proceed in earnest (see Figure 8). At its peak (in 1991 and 1992), this outflow was approximately 86,000 persons per year. The latest figure (for 1995) indicates that the flow has slowed to around 46,000 people per year, which is still far higher than during the early 1980s, when Vietnam was internationally isolated and living standards were lower than they are now. This suggests that net effect of the reform process in Vietnam has been to increase rather than decrease the (observed) outflow of emigrants. We shall return to this issue below.
4. SHORT-TERM DEPARTURES AND ILLEGAL MIGRANTS
It has not been possible to obtain official data concerning the number of people departing on short-term visas for such purposes as overseas study, family visit, or tourism. However, anecdotal evidence suggests that a nontrivial proportion of those who are overseas for 3 months or longer are interested (or actually engaged) in gaining employment and/or extending their stay. In some instances, visitors from Vietnam are able to derive income through informal networks of out-contracted light manufacturing tasks, such as garment production. Others become engaged or married to residents of the host country, thereby qualifying for permanent entry. The former case bears some resemblance to that of an official contract worker (i.e. a short-term migrant) while the latter case adds to the number of permanent settlers accepted by foreign countries.
The cases of informal and illegal short-term migrant workers warrant further investigation. In many host countries, visitors on short-term visas are allowed to work a limited number of hours per week, and as long as the limits are not exceeded, one might think of their employment as being in the nature of a short-term, informal, but legal arrangement. (The term "informal" is used in a broad sense here, to indicate that the work is not originally cited, or approved, as the main purpose of the visit.)
By contrast, those who knowingly exceed the maximum hours permitted are in direct contravention of the law. It has been estimated, for example, that every year around 500 - 1000 Vietnamese workers cross the border to work on construction projects in Laos (Farooq-i-Azam, 1993). Similarly, there are some establishments which send workers to employment overseas without the knowledge of MOLISA. But the largest group of illegal migrants consists of those who simply overstay their permits, or illegally enter the host country by circumventing border immigration procedures. While accurate data are understandably difficult to obtain, there are estimates suggesting that the total number of illegal Vietnam-born migrants in all three categories mentioned above could be as high as 150,000. On the other hand, some reports have suggested that the flow of illegal migration has dropped substantially since 1989, due to improvements in economic conditions in Vietnam, strengthened administrative and border controls, and established mechanisms for legal emigration (VIR, 18-24 March, 1996, p.4).
5. EMIGRATION PRESSURE AND UNDERLYING FACTORS
Emigration Pressure
From the above discussion, we can be reasonably sure that, in line with some official projections, at least 50,000 people per year will wish to obtain legally approved contract work overseas in the next few years. Indeed, comments from various recruitment agencies and applicants suggest that for every available contract job, there are 5-10 (or more) suitably qualified applicants, all eager to go. This would indicate that the annual supply of contract workers who meet the employers' requirements could be 100,000 or even higher.
As for approved emigration, the intense lobbying undertaken by the Vietnamese communities in various receiving countries in connection with this form of migration would suggest that the supply of potential emigrants under this category will not fall below the current level of actual arrivals (around 50,000) -- indeed, it will almost certainly be higher, as the overseas Vietnamese communities grow and as the desire by new community members for family reunion is gradually accommodated.
Estimates of the number of people who wish to join the ranks of "informally" short-term workers and illegal migrants overseas are the "softest" of all these indications. On balance, and in the absence of contradicting evidence, 150,000 seems a conservative estimate.
Thus, efforts to gauge the overall emigration pressure in Vietnam might begin with an initial, working hypothesis that the total number of people who wish to go abroad, and who are reasonably well qualified and endowed to do so, will be at least 300,000 per year. Compared with the actual outflows of only contract workers from other exporting countries (see Table 2) this figure certainly does not appear too high. Further research will be required, however, to obtain a good indication of just how much higher a realistic (as opposed to conservative) estimate will need to be.
The literature dealing with the determinants of international migration is substantial (see, for example, Straubhaar, 1993; Stahl, 1995; Molle, Koning and Zandvliet, 1994; Bruni and Venturini, 1995). These factors have been summarised and organised by Martin (1994: p.243) into three groups. They are:
(a) "demand pull" factors such as higher wages in migrant-receiving countries;
(b) "supply push" factors such as poverty and excess supply of labour in emigration countries; and
(c) communication channels and networks of friends and relatives already settled in destination countries.
For our purposes, it will be useful to extend and generalise the third concept to include all other facilitating (including catalytic) factors.
Wage and Income Differentials
A key demand pull factor has been the wide gap between Vietnam's wage and income levels and international levels. As Table 17 indicates, average labour income in Vietnam is only about one-twentieth of that in Korea or Taiwan, and about 2 per cent of that in the US or Germany. Similarly, data presented in Table 18 show clearly that Vietnam has one of the world's lowest per capita income level, in terms of either the usual exchange rate conversion, or purchasing power parity comparisons. Although other socio-economic indicators (such as life expectancy and literacy rate) suggest that these comparisons may overstate the income gap to some extent, there can be no doubt that a typical emigrant or contract worker from Vietnam can reasonably expect to enjoy a sharp rise in material income and wealth when they go overseas.
The financial incentive to emigrate, whether permanently or for a short period, is heightened further for those who are unskilled and poor, even by Vietnamese standards. As Table 19 shows, about 18 per cent of the population are considered "poor", with an average income of only around VND 40,000 (US$ 4) per month or less. Similarly, it is estimated that almost 40 per cent of all Vietnamese households spend VND 4m (less than US$ 400) or less per family each year (see Table 20) and almost 50 per cent of the population earn an annual per capita income of VND 750,000 (US$ 75) or less (see Table 21). For people with such low incomes, the vastly higher wages in the relevant receiving countries must act as a powerful attraction.
Excess Demand for Labour in East and Southeast Asia
The rapid growth of the newly industrialised economies (NIEs) in East and Southeast Asia during the past three decades or so has resulted in an economic transformation in the region, and has created an uneven pattern of growth which has stimulated a rise in international labour mobility (Athukorala, 1993b). As a result of rapid growth and industrialisation, the NIEs (Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) have reached the so-called "international migration turning point" or "migration transition". In other words, the domestic demand for labour in these countries has begun to exceed the domestic supply, and must be met increasingly by inflows of foreign workers.
Some of the faster-growing ASEAN countries (such as Malaysia and Thailand) are also approaching this turning point, where they switch from being a net labour-exporting to a net labour-importing country. It has been estimated that Thailand, for example, experienced an excess demand of about 1.5 million persons in 1994 (Low, 1994).
There has been a significant shift recently in the pattern of international migration. The flow of temporary migrant workers from various Asian countries to the Middle East was a major feature of this pattern in the 1970s and the early 1980s. Since then, with the rise of the NIEs, intra-Asian labour migration has become a key new development. Vietnam has also responded to this new trend. As noted in an earlier section, East and Southeast Asia currently account for more than one-half of its annual outflow of contract workers.
Domestic Over-Supply of Labour
The domestic over-supply of labour has been the major underlying push factor. As Table 22 shows, Vietnam has one of the highest rates of population growth among Asian countries, and one of the highest population density rates in Southeast Asia. While labour force growth in countries such as Malaysia and Thailand has slowed down considerably, it has remained stubbornly high in Vietnam. Data presented in Tables 23 and 24 suggest that high rates of population growth and increases in density were common to both rural and urban areas and throughout all major parts of the country. Table 25 confirms that there has been a rise in the proportion of the total population who are of working age: in the 10 years to 1989, the proportion of males who were in the 15-59 age group increased from 49 per cent to 52.5 percent. The corresponding rise for females was from 51.7 to 55 per cent.
Such rapid growth in the labour force puts enormous pressure on the employment market. It is difficult to obtain any consistent set of data on unemployment in Vietnam, and under-employment in the agricultural sector inherently does not lend itself to accurate estimation. Nevertheless, it is undeniable that Vietnam has a high rate of unemployment. As Table 26 shows, MOLISA estimates that as of 1992 about 17.3 per cent of the total population in working age were in one form of unemployment or another. The group officially categorised as "unemployed" represented 8.3 per cent of the population. Another 2.6 per cent were not actively looking for jobs but remained interested in employment. These two groups might be described in terms of the economic concept of "involuntary unemployment". By contrast, about 5.6 per cent of the labour force was in "voluntary unemployment" in that they were no longer interested in working.
Data presented in Table 26 further show that an overwhelming majority (82-96 per cent) of the unemployed are unskilled, and that about three-quarters of the involuntarily unemployed are in the most active, and mobile, age group (16-29 years). In a similar vein, data published by the General Statistical Office (GSO) for 1989 show very high rates of unemployment among younger groups, especially in urban areas (see Table 27). For the 15-19 age group, the proportion of urban dwellers classified as "unemployed" was 45.7 per cent. For the 20-24 group, the corresponding figure was lower, but still high at 19.8 per cent. For these young people, emigration promises not only better rates of pay but, in many instances, better opportunities to gain jobs.
A recent ILO report presents a rather sobering assessment of Vietnam's ability to provide employment for both the existing unemployed people and new entrants into the labour force (ILO, 1994: 13-15). According to this report, five factors have contributed to the current massive over-supply of labour.
(i) Labour force/employment mismatch: While labour force was growing at around 3.3 per cent a year in the recent past, the growth rate of employment was only 2.1 per cent during the period 1987 - 1991.
(ii) Retrenchment: State sector retrenchments due to economic reforms have been an important factor; we will discuss this in greater detail in the next section.
(iii) Demobilisation: Around 500,000 soldiers were demobilised between 1989 and 1990, and a further 130,000 to 140,000 soldiers were demobilised annually in the several years which followed. Jobs had to be found for them.
(iv) Returning migrants and refugees: Nearly 200,000 workers returned to Vietnam following the collapse of the Eastern European Bloc and the outbreak of the Gulf war. Around 75,000 refugees and asylum seekers have also been repatriated since 1989.
(v) Disabled workers: Between 4.5 to 6.0 million people had been disabled during the long war.
Rapid population growth and excess supply of labour also manifest themselves in the form of environmental stress, such as deforestation and land degradation. For example, Vietnam only has 0.14 hectares of forest area per capita compared with 0.26 in Thailand and 1.02 in Malaysia. Similarly, it has only 0.09 hectares of crop land per person compared with 0.42 in Thailand, and 0.27 in Malaysia (UN, 1995). Such reduced endowments per capita also tend to encourage mobile workers to migrate.
Poverty and Malnourishment
Poverty has been another important supply push factor. It is of course closely related to the demand pull factor of income differentials, and the supply push factor of excess labour supply. By highlighting poverty as a separate factor, we wish to emphasise the imperative of migration when poverty and malnourishment become a common feature of everyday life. In other words, while the income differential factor influences people's preferences for a place of residence relative to another, the poverty factor may actually compel people to move.
Despite the many conceptual and practical difficulties involved in trying to measure poverty, a recent World Bank study has made an assessment of poverty incidence in Vietnam (World Bank, 1995b). Drawing the poverty line at 1.09 million VND (almost US$ 100) per person per year, the study finds that about 51% of the country's population can be classified as poor. One-half of these, i.e. one-quarter of the population, are "food-poor in the sense that they cannot meet their daily basic calorie requirement even if they were to devote all of their consumption to the basic food basket" (World Bank, 1995b: ii). For such persons, emigration clearly represents an attractive, perhaps even essential, outlet.
Regional differences in the incidence of poverty mean that emigration is an even more essential option for some areas of the country. In particular, the North Central region (with a poverty incidence of 71%) and the Northern Upland region (with a poverty incidence of 59%) can be expected to have many residents who need to emigrate.
Mobility and Willingness to Migrate
Of course, many low-income families are not in a position to send family members overseas: the costs of travel, lack of facility with a foreign language, and unfamiliarity with the ways of life as well as support mechanisms in foreign countries all represent formidable barriers to international mobility. Nevertheless, as the Vietnam-born communities in the main receiving countries grew rapidly during the past twenty years, networks of connections have grown in size and effectiveness, and the demonstration effects generated by the return of contract workers or visits by emigrants have also become very strong. As a result, there has been a noticeable (although not precisely measurable) increase in the willingness to emigrate and capacity to travel abroad -- or, seen in another way, a rise in the demand for emigration opportunities.
Previously emigrated family members and friends, and historical links between the labour-exporting and the labour-receiving countries in social, cultural, political or economic terms have long been recognised as important factors facilitating migration. The existence of a well-established community of migrants from the home (exporting) country helps to better transmit information about the receiving country. It also facilitates a more rapid adjustment and reorientation process for the newcomers (see Stahl, 1995).
It should also be noted that, throughout Vietnam's history, there have been major waves of internal migration, indicating a high degree of adaptability and willingness to overcome the traditional attachment with one's birthplace. The Southern part of Vietnam itself was settled and annexed through such a wave of migration. After the country was divided in 1954, large flows of migration occurred in both directions, although the flow from the North to the South was far larger (nearly one million people). In the most recent major wave of internal migration, which took place after the re-unification of the country in 1975, there were again net flows of people from the North to the South. In addition, there were significant movements of people from rural to urban areas. In recent years, the areas which received proportionately the heaviest inflows of internal migrants have been provinces in the Highland Region of Central Vietnam (such as Dac Lac and Lam Dong) and those which are located near Ho Chi Minh City (such as Song Be, Dong Nai and Vung Tau-Con Dao); see Table 28. As can be expected, a large majority of the migrants (about 60 per cent) have been in the most economically active age brackets (spanning the ages 15-34); see Table 29. This suggests that, as a group, migrants are far more adaptable and dynamic than the general population as a whole.
Economic Reform and Structural Changes
There is now a voluminous body of literature on Vietnam's post-war socialist transformation (1976-1985) and its economic reform process under Doi Moi (1986-present). A variety of perspectives can be found; see, for example, Fforde and de Vylder (1988), Beresford (1990), Vo Nhan Tri (1990), Nguyen Xuan Oanh (1990 and 1992), Kimura (1989 and 1993), Than and Tan (1993), Do Duc Dinh (1993), Nguyen and Bandara (1994a), Thayer (1994), and Irvin (1995).
In essence, Doi Moi represents a shift from the centralised planning system to a more market-oriented economy, and a decision to open Vietnam's door to the international community. Internally, the major economic reforms include the decollectivisation of the agriculture sector, the formal recognition of the role of private enterprises, a softening of rigid planning principles to allow and encourage public enterprises to become more efficient, and a shift toward the use of market-based means of macroeconomic management. Externally, an outward-oriented growth strategy was adopted: foreign trade was liberalised and foreign direct investment was actively sought and encouraged.
Thus far, Doi Moi's achievements at the macroeconomic level have been quite impressive (see Table 30). Since 1992, growth in real GDP has remained above 8 per cent per annum. In agriculture, Vietnam has become the world's third biggest exporter of rice, behind Thailand and the United States. In industry, an average growth rate of 12 per cent has been achieved over the period 1991 to 1995. The services sector has also recorded high growth rates, averaging 9.9 per cent between 1989 to 1995. Similarly, exports have grown at double-digit rates since 1988. During the same period, the government succeeded in bringing about a remarkable slowing of price inflation and some reduction in the budget deficit (for further details see Nguyen and Bandara, 1994b; and Irvin, 1995).
Of course, these achievements have not come without costs. Some of the most serious adverse effects of the reform process have been in the areas of social infrastructure, particularly health and education, and in a perceived widening of the income gaps between urban and rural areas, as well as between the various income groups in any given location. Donor countries have expressed concern that, as the public sector plays a smaller role in the provision of health care and basic education, a significant number of people may fall through the "safety net", with long-term consequences for both themselves and for society in general. For a more detailed discussion of some of these issues, see World Bank (1995: 81-110). Overall, however, there is little doubt that both the Vietnamese leadership and most foreign analysts see the continuation of the reform process (supplemented by appropriate social support measures) as potentially the most effective means of modernising Vietnam's economy and society, raising standards of living, and alleviating poverty.
Economic reform and structural changes during the past decade have increased labour mobility between industrial sectors and geographical areas, and affected emigration pressure and patterns in a number of ways. First, there has been a general shift in emphasis, away from state-owned businesses in heavy industries, and toward private businesses and joint-ventures in light manufacturing and the services sector. This has led to a rise in the proportion of the labour force deployed in the "self-employment" categories. As Table 31 shows, this proportion is now about 55 per cent for urban dwellers. (The rural proportion has always been high, due to the nature of agriculture in Vietnam.) It is likely that much of the newly created self-employed work is geared toward a capacity to flexibly respond to changing market conditions, and is therefore more variable than in the past. This tends to increase the mobility, and willingness to emigrate, of the people involved.
Second, the economic restructuring has led to massive job shedding by the state sector. Between 1985 and 1994, employment in this sector declined by nearly one-quarter, from 3.86 million to 2.93 million employees (see Tables 32 and 33). The shedding occurred in all industrial groupings, except "Postal Services and Communications" and "State Management". While employment growth in the private sector, especially in the light manufacturing and services industries, can be expected in the long run to absorb much of the shed labour, in the short run the displaced workers added to the problems which must be faced by an already difficult labour market. Together with the demobilisation of a large number of military personnel following the withdrawal of Vietnamese forces from Cambodia, this further aggravated the unemployment situation, thus exerting an indirect influence on emigration pressure.
Third, as shown in Table 30, growth in the agriculture sector has not been as rapid as in the industrial and services sectors. The resultant low rates of economic growth in rural areas and the traditionally high level of rural underemployment combine to induce many rural dwellers to migrate to urban areas. As mentioned before, the reform process has loosened the restrictions previously imposed on such labour mobility. The end result is that major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City have witnessed a burst of population growth, with many of the new-comers joining the ranks of the urban unemployed. This again indirectly raises emigration pressure.
Fourth, the opening of the Vietnamese economy to (non-Socialist) world trade and foreign investment has resulted in a major reorientation of Vietnam's foreign economic relations. In particular, East and Southeast Asia have emerged as key trading partners as well as sources of foreign direct investment, as noted above. Correspondingly, Asia is now the major destination of Vietnam's overseas contract workers.
The opening of the economy and society to international influences, and the gradual relaxation of regulations concerning international travel have also led to a substantial increase in the number of people going abroad on short-term visas. As has been argued above, some of these travellers can be regarded as potential long-term emigrants or short-term foreign-employed workers. At the same time, the influx of foreign visitors and the temporary return of overseas Vietnamese (Viet Kieu) on family visits or holidays serve to increase domestic residents' familiarity with foreign ways of life, thereby lessening their fears of the unknown when opportunities to go abroad do become available. The demonstration effects flowing from such contacts are also likely to increase the willingness to travel.
In short, economic reform and closer ties with foreign countries are likely to result in an increase in emigration pressure in the short-to-medium term. This conclusion is consistent with the observation that all categories of emigration from Vietnam displayed a general rising trend during the first half of the 1990s, and that by all accounts the number of people being interested in emigration also rose during this period. Of course, in the longer run, it would be reasonable to expect that if economic reform and internationalisation succeed in raising the standard of living and improving the economy's overall performance, they will also assist the country to eventually achieve the "migration turning point" currently experienced by the NIEs, Malaysia, and Thailand.
Labour Market
Although the domestic excess supply of labour has been a major factor underlying the emigration outflows, it would be unrealistic to expect that such flows can make a significant impact on Vietnam's unemployment situation in the foreseeable future. With a population of around 75 million, a participation rate of 57-58%, and a rate of overall unemployment (in the sense of excess supply) of around 17%, the country currently has a pool of around 7-8 million unemployed persons. The current annual rates of short-term labour export and approved permanent emigration represent no more than approximately 1% of that total pool, and there are few prospects for a major increase.
In 1994, the latest year for which data were available, the annual outflow of contract workers was only about 11,000. In the next few years, this could increase to perhaps 50,000, but is unlikely to exceed 100,000. Similarly, recent trends suggest that approved permanent emigration would be at an annual rate of about 50,000-80,000 persons (some of whom would be outside the working age groups and therefore would not have any effect on unemployment). Thus, the total rate of legal (both short- and long-term) emigration is likely to be around 100,000 per year, which would be less than 2% of total unemployment.
From the above discussion, it can be seen that legal channels by themselves will not be sufficient to accommodate all of the country's emigration pressure. This implies that the spill-over into illegal and informal channels will continue. As data unavailability is particularly severe in this area, the situation will warrant close monitoring and further investigation.
Remittances and Investment
Similarly, for the purpose of policy formulation, it is important to be able to assess the magnitude of remittances from emigrants. These can flow through formal channels (e.g. the official banking system) as well as informal ones (e.g. gift parcels of consumer goods for friends and relatives, or foreign currency brought back by returning or visiting emigrants).
In contrast with other labour-exporting countries (see Table 34), Vietnam does not publish official data on the remittances by its contract workers overseas. On the basis of anecdotal evidence, it is estimated that the typical worker overseas saves about US $500 per month and that skilled workers (e.g. engineers) can save $8,000 or more per year. Assuming that the total number of contract workers currently employed overseas is around 50,000, this implies an inflow of approximately $250 million per year. This is in line with other estimates which have been reported in the press (e.g. $200 million in Economist, May 5, 1990: 42) and suggests that remittances from contract workers are an important source of foreign exchange earnings for Vietnam, equivalent to about 6% of its total export value. The comparable figures (in 1989-1991) were 12% for the Philippines, 4% for Thailand, 2% for South Korea and 1% for Indonesia (Athukorala, 1993b: 46).
To the above should be added the remittances of Viet Kieu, i.e. Vietnamese who have resettled overseas. Estimates of this flow vary widely, but many are between $200m - $300m per year (VIR, 1-7 April, 1996: 6). From the viewpoint of long-term economic development, the role of Viet Kieu is expected to far exceed the above estimate. Government projections indicate that US$ 7 billion worth of foreign investment may be made by Viet Kieu over the period 1991-2000. If realised, this will account for almost one-third of total foreign investment, and about 14% of the total investment expected to be undertaken by the country in this entire decade (VIR, 1-7 April, 1996: 6).
Transfer of Skills and Experiences
The possible transfer of occupational skills from labour-importing to labour-exporting countries through returning workers has been canvassed fairly thoroughly in the recent literature (see, for example, Stahl and Habib, 1991; and Athukorala, 1993b). While in principle many opportunities exist for contract workers to acquire new skills and upgrade existing ones, the available empirical evidence from traditional labour-exporting countries is not encouraging (Athukorala, 1993b: 47). One of the reasons for this has been the low level of skills and training involved in many of these jobs, particularly those of housemaids and similar jobs in the services-related areas.
Vietnam's situation in this regard may be more favourable than the usual case: it does not send any housemaids (at least not officially); many of its contract workers are in manufacturing industries; and a significant number of the persons sent overseas are trainees. Anecdotal evidence indicates that Vietnamese workers, especially those in East and Southeast Asian countries, have gained considerable skills, but it is not clear that they have been able to use the newly gained skills effectively upon returning. In the near-to-medium term, the rapid increase in foreign direct investment and the expansion of the industrial sector which have occurred during recent years may continue and even accelerate, thus providing better opportunities for these workers to make use of their foreign-acquired skills.
In the medium-to-longer term, returning workers from overseas and visiting Viet Kieu can be expected to contribute to the dissemination of information regarding international business practices and foreign cultures. This will assist the country in (a) interacting with foreign investors, particularly employers of local workers on Vietnamese soil; (b) initiating, implementing and supporting international trade transactions; and (c) absorbing foreign best practice through the transfer of technology and business know-how.
Brain/Talent Drain
Although much of the discussion above has proceeded along the line that emigration represents a pressure vent for Vietnam's excess labour supply, it is important not to neglect the possibility that it may also impose a substantial cost on the country in terms of the talent and human capital being taken overseas. On balance, contract workers and people on short-term visits overseas do not represent a problem in this respect, as they are likely to add to the nation's stock of human capital by bringing back with them new or upgraded skills and experiences.
By contrast, permanent emigrants, whether approved or unapproved, will take with them the training, experiences, and talent developed domestically and vested in them. The first group of such emigrants, who left Vietnam shortly after the end of the war, included among its ranks some of the country's brightest and best educated. There is no doubt that there were also many individuals of talent and initiative in subsequent outflows of emigrants. Vietnam can ill afford the loss of such people.
In recognition of this, and in an attempt to turn it into a strength, the government has adopted a number of measures aimed at encouraging Viet Kieu to contribute to the country's reconstruction and development, in terms of not only physical and financial investment but also ideas and suggestions. Of course, mechanisms will have to be found to resolve any residual political differences, and this will take time. In the meantime, it will be important to make conditions as attractive as possible for the return of trainees, students, and others who leave the country temporarily for the express purpose of enhancing their skills and professional knowledge. They should be encouraged, and given the opportunity, to put into practice what they have learned overseas.
Administration of Labour Export
There is a pressing need for more comprehensive and up-to-date information about the laws and regulations governing labour markets in the receiving countries, and about mechanisms for protecting the rights of overseas workers. Multilateral organisations can play a major role in addressing this need, by making available information which they have gathered over the years, and by facilitating the contact between the relevant personnel in Vietnam and their counterparts in other labour-exporting countries, as well as in labour-importing countries.
Vietnamese officials have also expressed concern over the need for better information about potential markets for its labour export. However, it is not clear that there is much scope for official assistance from multilateral organisations in this regard. Rather, what appears to be required is better contact between Vietnamese market-research personnel and various employer groups in "unfamiliar" countries, and this will occur gradually over time, as Vietnam's international economic relations broaden and deepen.
In the medium term, it will be of interest to re-examine the role played by State agencies in the recruitment process. In light of the experiences of other labour-exporting countries, it may be desirable to turn over to the private sector most of the recruitment and support activities currently undertaken by state-owned companies. Alternatively, if these are the main business of the relevant companies, it may be commercially viable and economically efficient to privatise them.
Data Collection and Further Studies
Many of the issues discussed above are of considerable importance to Vietnam and to other countries. Yet often there are no reliable or consistent data to enable a proper analysis of such issues to be carried out. A high priority at this stage must be to collect more data, and to ensure that they are consistent and do meet the needs of policy analysis and decision-making.
It will also be highly relevant to develop a more detailed understanding of the major issues. In particular, the concept of emigration pressure as applied to Vietnam should be re-examined with a view to obtaining a clearer picture of how its various components are related to one another, and deriving more precise measurements of these components. For example, the outflows of people on short-term visas for family visits, further education, and similar purposes need a closer examination. Another example is the estimation of the number of informal/illegal emigrants.
A second major issue relates to emigrants' remittances and their impact on the economy. Further investigation is needed to generate more reliable estimates of remittances by both contract workers and Viet Kieu. Also required is a more thorough analysis of the contributions made by returning workers and Viet Kieu to the country's economic development.
Only through such efforts can we hope to gain a proper understanding of the inter-relationships between structural changes and emigration in Vietnam.
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Persons and Organisations Consulted
The authors greatly appreciate the opportunity to discuss relevant issues with the persons and organisations listed below. (We sincerely apologise to those persons who were also consulted, but whom our records fail to identify.). None of the above individuals or their organisations should be held responsible for the views expressed in the paper, or for any errors and omissions which may remain.
Director, DAFELF
MOLISA
Hanoi
Director, Department of International Relations
MOLISA
Hanoi
Deputy Director, DAFELF
MOLISA
Hanoi
Head, Labour Market Division, DAFELF
MOLISA
Hanoi
Overseas Employment Expert, DAFELF
MOLISA
Hanoi
Vice Director
Hanoi Department of Labour, Invalids & Social Affairs
Hanoi
Deputy General Director, Vietnam Labour Overseas Deployment Corp.
Hanoi
Director General, Vietnam International Construction Corporation
Hanoi
Demography and Family Section
National Center for Human and Social Sciences
Institute of Sociology
Hanoi
Hanoi
Director
HCMC Department of Labour, Invalids, and Social Affairs
Ho Chi Minh City
Head, Foreign Employment Management Division
MOLISA
Hochiminh City
Director, Training Center for Overseas Employment No.2
MOLISA
Ho Chi Minh City
Director, Labour-Expert Supply & Service Company
HCMC Department of Labour, Invalids & Social Affairs
Ho Chi Minh City
Director, Company for Overseas Labour Service No.2
HoChiMinh City
Vice Director, Company for Overseas Labour Service No.2
Ho Chi Minh City
Specialist, Company for Overseas Labour Service No.2
Ho Chi Minh City
Boat Cooperation Unit
Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs
Canberra
Refugee Policy Section
Department of Immigration and Ethnic Affairs
Canberra
Officer in Charge
UNHCR Regional Office for Australia, NZ and the South Pacific
Canberra
Statistician, Programme Coordination & Budget Section
UNHCR
Geneva
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