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2.6 Conclusion

In the mid-1990s, near-full employment conditions prevailed in just six economies (Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong [China]) of the Asia-Pacific region. In all other economies, employment conditions fell short C far short in many cases C of full employment. Besides, gender inequalities were significant in all countries and child labour was prevalent in all but the advanced industrialized countries of the region.

The long-term employment trends were favourable in the same set of six economies which achieved near-full employment conditions by the mid-1990s. In all the others, employment conditions either remained broadly unchanged or worsened. In Australia and New Zealand, high unemployment became a persistent problem and the incidence of precarious, part-time employment rose simultaneously. In transition economies, some East Asian economies and South Asian economies, the problem was one of deteriorating quality of employment rather than rising unemployment. Though employment growth kept pace with labour force growth in aggregate terms, growth of regular wage employment was slower than that of the labour force. Thus there was a steady growth of relatively low-quality employment C self-employment with a poor asset base, casual wage employment and regular but insecure wage employment in the informal sector. Another manifestation of the problem was the growth of migration in search of overseas employment from many of these countries.

Alongside these unfavourable employment trends, some positive trends were also observed in many countries. Gender inequalities, child labour and poverty were declining in virtually all the countries, though the pace of decline was much too slow in several cases.

Recent developments threaten to undo even the modest progress achieved over a long period. The Asian crisis has brought back problems of unemployment, underemployment and poverty in precisely the countries which had earlier made steady progress in eliminating them. Prospects of economic recovery in the crisis-affected countries seem uncertain at this point. Outside the crisis-affected countries, economic reforms in a context of globalization have exposed problems (such as that of redundant labour in the organized sector) carried over from the past. They have also created fresh uncertainties. There are apprehensions, for example, that pressures of global competition could lead to growth of capital intensity in the organized sector and thus to a further slowdown in the growth of regular wage employment. The overall short-term consequences of the reforms, therefore, are likely to include a slowdown in the growth of Agood@ jobs and increases in both open unemployment and underemployment. These circumstances could conceivably reverse the long-term declining trends in poverty, gender inequalities and child labour. The need to make employment growth the core objective of development strategies has rarely been greater.

Table 2.1. Gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP) per capita

in selected economies, 1980-98

Country/region

GDP growth rate (per cent)

 

Projections

 

GNP per capita (US$)

1980-90

1990-95

1985-95

1996

1997

 

1998

 

1995

Advanced industrialized economies

Australia

3.4

3.5

3.0

3.7

3.1

 

3.6

 

18 720

Japan

4.0

1.0

3.0

3.9

0.8

 

-2.5

 

39 640

New Zealand

1.8

..

1.6

3.1

2.3

 

-0.5

 

14 340

East and Southeast Asian economies

Hong Kong (China)

6.9

5.6

6.3

4.6

5.3

 

-5.0

 

22 990

Rep. of Korea

9.4

7.2

8.7

7.1

5.9

 

-7.0

 

9 700

Malaysia

5.2

8.7

7.7

8.6

7.8

 

-6.4

 

3 890

Singapore

6.4

8.7

-

6.9

7.8

 

0.0

 

26 730

                   

Indonesia

6.1

7.6

-

8.0

4.7

 

-15.0

 

980

Philippines

1.0

2.3

..

5.7

5.1

 

-0.6

 

1 050

Thailand

7.6

8.4

..

5.5

-0.4

 

-8.0

 

2 740

Transition economies

               

Cambodia

..

6.4

..

6.0*

3.0

 

..

 

270

China

10.2

12.8

..

9.6

8.9

 

5.5

 

620

Lao PDR

..

6.5

..

6.8*

6.0

 

..

 

350

Mongolia

5.5

-3.3

..

2.6*

3.0

 

..

 

310

Viet Nam

..

8.3

..

9.3

8.8

 

4.0

 

240

South Asian economies

               

Bangladesh

4.3

4.1

..

5.4

5.7

 

4.2

 

240

India

5.8

4.6

..

7.5

5.6

 

4.8

 

340

Nepal

4.6

5.1

4.7

6.1*

4.9

 

6.0

 

200

Pakistan

6.3

4.6

5.3

5.2

1.3

 

5.4

 

460

Sri Lanka

4.2

4.8

..

3.8*

6.2

 

6.5

 

700

South Pacific economies

               

Fiji

..

..

4.7

3.1*

1.0

 

3.0

 

2 400

Papua New Guinea

1.9

9.3

4.9

1.9*

0.3

 

3.8

 

1 160

 

*Figures were taken from Economic Intelligence Unit Reports ( EIU), 1998.

Sources: World Bank, World Development Report (WDR), 1996; OECD, Employment Outlook, 1998; ADB, EDRC Databank, 1998; IMF, World Economic Outlook, 1998; UNDP, Human Development Report (HDR), 1998.

Table 2.2. Population in selected economies, 1985-97

Country/region

Population growth (per cent)

 

Population

(in millions)

1985-95

1996

1997

 

1997

Advanced industrialized economies*

Australia

1.5

--

1.2

 

19

Japan

0.6

--

0.3

 

126

New Zealand

0.8

--

1.2

 

4

East and Southeast Asian economies

Hong Kong (China)

1.2

2.4

3.0

 

7

Rep. of Korea

1.0

1.0

1.0

 

46

Malaysia

2.9

2.3

2.5

 

21

Singapore

1.5

1.9

2.0

 

3

           

Indonesia

1.6

1.6

1.6

 

200

Philippines

2.5

2.3

2.2

 

73

Thailand

1.7

--

1.7

 

61

Transition economies

       

Cambodia

3.4

2.3

2.0

 

11

China

1.4

1.0

1.0

 

1 227

Lao PDR

2.7

2.5

..

 

5

Mongolia

2.0

1.7

2.6

 

3

Viet Nam

2.1

1.9

1.8

 

77

South Asian economies

       

Bangladesh

2.0

1.9

1.9

 

124

India

2.2

2.0

2.0

 

961

Nepal

2.4

2.6

2.5

 

23

Pakistan

3.0

3.0

..

 

137

Sri Lanka

1.3

1.2

1.3

 

18

South Pacific economies

       

Fiji

1.3

-2.3

..

 

0.8

Papua New Guinea

2.1

2.0

1.9

 

5

           

*The reference periods for advanced industrial countries and Thailand are 1980-90, 1990-97.

Sources: ADB, EDRC Databank, 1998; World Bank, WDR, 1998/1999.

Table 2.3. Labour force in selected economies, 1980-97

 

Country/region

Total labour force growth

(per cent)

 

Female per centage of

labour force

   

1980-90

1990-95

1990-97

 

1980

1995

1997

 

Advanced industrialized economies

 

Australia

2.3

1.4

1.3

 

37

43

43

 

Japan

1.1

0.6

1.1

 

38

41

41

 

New Zealand

2.0

1.5

1.4

 

34

44

44

 

East and Southeast Asian economies

 

Hong Kong (China)

1.6

1.3

1.9

 

39

40

41

 

Rep. of Korea

2.3

1.9

1.9

 

35

40

40

 

Malaysia

2.8

2.7

2.7

 

35

37

37

 

Philippines

2.9

2.7

2.7

 

47

46

46

 

Singapore

2.3

1.7

1.7

 

34

37

38

                 
 

Indonesia

2.9

2.5

2.5

 

34

37

37

 

Philippines

2.9

2.7

2.7

 

47

46

46

 

Thailand

2.6

1.3

1.5

 

35

38

38

 

Transition economies

             
 

Cambodia

2.8

2.5

2.4

 

56

53

53

 

China

2.2

1.1

1.1

 

43

45

45

 

Lao PDR

1.9

2.7

2.3

 

45

47

47

 

Mongolia

3.1

2.9

2.9

 

46

46

46

 

Viet Nam

2.7

1.9

2.0

 

48

49

49

 

South Asian economies

             
 

Bangladesh

2.8

2.1

2.1

 

42

42

42

 

India

1.8

2.2

2.2

 

34

32

32

 

Nepal

2.4

2.4

2.5

 

39

40

40

 

Pakistan

2.9

3.3

3.3

 

23

26

27

   

2.3

2.0

1.8

 

27

35

36

 

South Pacific economies

           
 

Fiji

..

..

..

 

..

..

..

 

Papua New Guinea

2.1

2.3

2.3

 

42

42

42

                 
 

Sources: World Bank, WDR, 1997; 1998/1999; ILO-SAAT.

Table 2.4. Labour force participation rates in selected economies, 1980-96

Country/region

1980

 

1996

 

1980

 

1996

Total

 

Total

 

Male

Female

 

Male

Female

Advanced industrialized economies

Australia

45.9

 

51.0

 

58.1

33.7

 

58.0

43.3

Japan

49.0

 

53.8

 

61.9

36.6

 

64.4

43.0

New Zealand

49.0

 

50.1

 

56.1

29.1

 

55.8

43.2

East and Southeast Asian economies

Hong Kong (China)

49.2

 

52.9

 

62.2

35.2

 

63.6

39.6

Rep. of Korea

40.8

 

51.1

 

49.5

31.9

 

58.3

40.4

Malaysia

38.5

 

41.3

 

50.7

26.1

 

50.2

30.1

Singapore

46.3

 

49.7

 

59.3

32.7

 

61.2

39.6

                   

Indonesia

39.5

 

48.4

 

51.5

27.7

 

56.2

37.2

Philippines

39.0

 

42.2

 

50.6

27.4

 

51.4

31.1

Thailand

52.2

 

60.6

 

54.8

49.5

 

63.8

55.2

Transition economies

               

Cambodia

54.0

 

52.4

 

52.1

55.7

 

51.4

52.3

China

54.9

 

59.9

 

60.6

48.9

 

63.7

55.6

Lao PDR

51.6

 

47.6

 

56.1

47.1

 

51.8

44.8

Mongolia

46.4

 

50.1

 

50.3

42.5

 

51.6

45.5

Viet Nam

47.7

 

51.5

 

51.1

44.5

 

52.5

49.4

South Asian economies

               

Bangladesh

47.1

 

52.8

 

52.7

41.2

 

56.6

43.5

India

43.6

 

44.4

 

55.8

30.5

 

57.4

28.6

Nepal

48.5

 

46.4

 

57.9

38.5

 

54.4

37.8

Pakistan

35.4

 

37.5

 

52.2

16.9

 

51.8

20.3

Sri Lanka

36.8

 

43.9

 

52.8

20.2

 

54.6

30.1

South Pacific economies

                 

Fiji

32.1

 

40.6

 

52.4

11.2

 

53.9

21.7

Papua New Guinea

49.3

 

49.2

 

54.8

43.2

 

55.4

42.4

                   

Source: ILO, World Labour Report (WLR), 1997/1998.

Table 2.5. Employment by sector in selected economies, 1980-97 (per cent)

 

Country/region

Agriculture

 

Industry

 

Services

1980

1990

1995-97

 

1980

1990

1995-97

 

1980

1990

1995-97

 

Advanced industrialized economies

 

Australia

6.5

5.4

5.1

 

30.9

24.9

22.5

 

62.6

68.8

72.2

 

Japan

10.4

7.2

5.5

 

35.3

34.1

33.3

 

54.0

58.2

60.8

 

New Zealand

10.9

10.6

9.5

 

33.8

24.6

24.7

 

55.3

64.4

65.5

 

East and Southeast Asian economies

 

Hong Kong (China)

32.0

23.0

12.0

 

50.2

36.7

25.7

 

48.4

62.4

73.9

 

Rep. of Korea

34.0

17.9

11.6

 

29.0

35.4

32.5

 

37.0

46.7

55.9

 

Malaysia

37.2

26.0

19.4

 

24.1

27.5

32.2

 

38.7

46.5

48.4

 

Singapore

1.3.0

0.5

0.2

 

35.7

36.2

30.2

 

62.6

63.4

69.6

                         
 

Indonesia

55.9

55.9

44.8

 

13.2

13.7

18.1

 

30.2

30.2

37.9

 

Philippines

51.8

45.2

41.7

 

15.4

15.0

16.6

 

32.8

39.7

41.6

 

Thailand

70.8

64.0

50.3

 

10.3

14.0

19.7