2.6 Conclusion
In the mid-1990s, near-full employment conditions prevailed in just six economies (Japan, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Hong Kong [China]) of the Asia-Pacific region. In all other economies, employment conditions fell short C far short in many cases C of full employment. Besides, gender inequalities were significant in all countries and child labour was prevalent in all but the advanced industrialized countries of the region.
The long-term employment trends were favourable in the same set of six economies which achieved near-full employment conditions by the mid-1990s. In all the others, employment conditions either remained broadly unchanged or worsened. In Australia and New Zealand, high unemployment became a persistent problem and the incidence of precarious, part-time employment rose simultaneously. In transition economies, some East Asian economies and South Asian economies, the problem was one of deteriorating quality of employment rather than rising unemployment. Though employment growth kept pace with labour force growth in aggregate terms, growth of regular wage employment was slower than that of the labour force. Thus there was a steady growth of relatively low-quality employment C self-employment with a poor asset base, casual wage employment and regular but insecure wage employment in the informal sector. Another manifestation of the problem was the growth of migration in search of overseas employment from many of these countries.
Alongside these unfavourable employment trends, some positive trends were also observed in many countries. Gender inequalities, child labour and poverty were declining in virtually all the countries, though the pace of decline was much too slow in several cases.
Recent developments threaten to undo even the modest progress achieved over a long period. The Asian crisis has brought back problems of unemployment, underemployment and poverty in precisely the countries which had earlier made steady progress in eliminating them. Prospects of economic recovery in the crisis-affected countries seem uncertain at this point. Outside the crisis-affected countries, economic reforms in a context of globalization have exposed problems (such as that of redundant labour in the organized sector) carried over from the past. They have also created fresh uncertainties. There are apprehensions, for example, that pressures of global competition could lead to growth of capital intensity in the organized sector and thus to a further slowdown in the growth of regular wage employment. The overall short-term consequences of the reforms, therefore, are likely to include a slowdown in the growth of Agood@ jobs and increases in both open unemployment and underemployment. These circumstances could conceivably reverse the long-term declining trends in poverty, gender inequalities and child labour. The need to make employment growth the core objective of development strategies has rarely been greater.
Table 2.1. Gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP) per capita
in selected economies, 1980-98
|
Country/region |
GDP growth rate (per cent) |
Projections |
GNP per capita (US$) | ||||||
|
1980-90 |
1990-95 |
1985-95 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1995 | |||
|
Advanced industrialized economies | |||||||||
|
Australia |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.0 |
3.7 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
18 720 | ||
|
Japan |
4.0 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
3.9 |
0.8 |
-2.5 |
39 640 | ||
|
New Zealand |
1.8 |
.. |
1.6 |
3.1 |
2.3 |
-0.5 |
14 340 | ||
|
East and Southeast Asian economies | |||||||||
|
Hong Kong (China) |
6.9 |
5.6 |
6.3 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
-5.0 |
22 990 | ||
|
Rep. of Korea |
9.4 |
7.2 |
8.7 |
7.1 |
5.9 |
-7.0 |
9 700 | ||
|
Malaysia |
5.2 |
8.7 |
7.7 |
8.6 |
7.8 |
-6.4 |
3 890 | ||
|
Singapore |
6.4 |
8.7 |
- |
6.9 |
7.8 |
0.0 |
26 730 | ||
|
Indonesia |
6.1 |
7.6 |
- |
8.0 |
4.7 |
-15.0 |
980 | ||
|
Philippines |
1.0 |
2.3 |
.. |
5.7 |
5.1 |
-0.6 |
1 050 | ||
|
Thailand |
7.6 |
8.4 |
.. |
5.5 |
-0.4 |
-8.0 |
2 740 | ||
|
Transition economies |
|||||||||
|
Cambodia |
.. |
6.4 |
.. |
6.0* |
3.0 |
.. |
270 | ||
|
China |
10.2 |
12.8 |
.. |
9.6 |
8.9 |
5.5 |
620 | ||
|
Lao PDR |
.. |
6.5 |
.. |
6.8* |
6.0 |
.. |
350 | ||
|
Mongolia |
5.5 |
-3.3 |
.. |
2.6* |
3.0 |
.. |
310 | ||
|
Viet Nam |
.. |
8.3 |
.. |
9.3 |
8.8 |
4.0 |
240 | ||
|
South Asian economies |
|||||||||
|
Bangladesh |
4.3 |
4.1 |
.. |
5.4 |
5.7 |
4.2 |
240 | ||
|
India |
5.8 |
4.6 |
.. |
7.5 |
5.6 |
4.8 |
340 | ||
|
Nepal |
4.6 |
5.1 |
4.7 |
6.1* |
4.9 |
6.0 |
200 | ||
|
Pakistan |
6.3 |
4.6 |
5.3 |
5.2 |
1.3 |
5.4 |
460 | ||
|
Sri Lanka |
4.2 |
4.8 |
.. |
3.8* |
6.2 |
6.5 |
700 | ||
|
South Pacific economies |
|||||||||
|
Fiji |
.. |
.. |
4.7 |
3.1* |
1.0 |
3.0 |
2 400 | ||
|
Papua New Guinea |
1.9 |
9.3 |
4.9 |
1.9* |
0.3 |
3.8 |
1 160 | ||
|
*Figures were taken from Economic Intelligence Unit Reports ( EIU), 1998. Sources: World Bank, World Development Report (WDR), 1996; OECD, Employment Outlook, 1998; ADB, EDRC Databank, 1998; IMF, World Economic Outlook, 1998; UNDP, Human Development Report (HDR), 1998. | |||||||||
Table 2.2. Population in selected economies, 1985-97
|
Country/region |
Population growth (per cent) |
Population (in millions) | |||
|
1985-95 |
1996 |
1997 |
1997 | ||
|
Advanced industrialized economies* | |||||
|
Australia |
1.5 |
-- |
1.2 |
19 | |
|
Japan |
0.6 |
-- |
0.3 |
126 | |
|
New Zealand |
0.8 |
-- |
1.2 |
4 | |
|
East and Southeast Asian economies | |||||
|
Hong Kong (China) |
1.2 |
2.4 |
3.0 |
7 | |
|
Rep. of Korea |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
46 | |
|
Malaysia |
2.9 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
21 | |
|
Singapore |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
3 | |
|
Indonesia |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
200 | |
|
Philippines |
2.5 |
2.3 |
2.2 |
73 | |
|
Thailand |
1.7 |
-- |
1.7 |
61 | |
|
Transition economies |
|||||
|
Cambodia |
3.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
11 | |
|
China |
1.4 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
1 227 | |
|
Lao PDR |
2.7 |
2.5 |
.. |
5 | |
|
Mongolia |
2.0 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
3 | |
|
Viet Nam |
2.1 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
77 | |
|
South Asian economies |
|||||
|
Bangladesh |
2.0 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
124 | |
|
India |
2.2 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
961 | |
|
Nepal |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.5 |
23 | |
|
Pakistan |
3.0 |
3.0 |
.. |
137 | |
|
Sri Lanka |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.3 |
18 | |
|
South Pacific economies |
|||||
|
Fiji |
1.3 |
-2.3 |
.. |
0.8 | |
|
Papua New Guinea |
2.1 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
5 | |
|
*The reference periods for advanced industrial countries and Thailand are 1980-90, 1990-97. Sources: ADB, EDRC Databank, 1998; World Bank, WDR, 1998/1999. | |||||
Table 2.3. Labour force in selected economies, 1980-97
|
Country/region |
Total labour force growth (per cent) |
Female per centage of labour force | ||||||
|
1980-90 |
1990-95 |
1990-97 |
1980 |
1995 |
1997 | |||
|
Advanced industrialized economies | ||||||||
|
Australia |
2.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
37 |
43 |
43 | ||
|
Japan |
1.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
38 |
41 |
41 | ||
|
New Zealand |
2.0 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
34 |
44 |
44 | ||
|
East and Southeast Asian economies | ||||||||
|
Hong Kong (China) |
1.6 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
39 |
40 |
41 | ||
|
Rep. of Korea |
2.3 |
1.9 |
1.9 |
35 |
40 |
40 | ||
|
Malaysia |
2.8 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
35 |
37 |
37 | ||
|
Philippines |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
47 |
46 |
46 | ||
|
Singapore |
2.3 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
34 |
37 |
38 | ||
|
Indonesia |
2.9 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
34 |
37 |
37 | ||
|
Philippines |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.7 |
47 |
46 |
46 | ||
|
Thailand |
2.6 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
35 |
38 |
38 | ||
|
Transition economies |
||||||||
|
Cambodia |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.4 |
56 |
53 |
53 | ||
|
China |
2.2 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
43 |
45 |
45 | ||
|
Lao PDR |
1.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
45 |
47 |
47 | ||
|
Mongolia |
3.1 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
46 |
46 |
46 | ||
|
Viet Nam |
2.7 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
48 |
49 |
49 | ||
|
South Asian economies |
||||||||
|
Bangladesh |
2.8 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
42 |
42 |
42 | ||
|
India |
1.8 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
34 |
32 |
32 | ||
|
Nepal |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
39 |
40 |
40 | ||
|
Pakistan |
2.9 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
23 |
26 |
27 | ||
|
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
27 |
35 |
36 | |||
|
South Pacific economies |
||||||||
|
Fiji |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. |
.. | ||
|
Papua New Guinea |
2.1 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
42 |
42 |
42 | ||
|
Sources: World Bank, WDR, 1997; 1998/1999; ILO-SAAT. | ||||||||
Table 2.4. Labour force participation rates in selected economies, 1980-96
|
Country/region |
1980 |
1996 |
1980 |
1996 | |||||
|
Total |
Total |
Male |
Female |
Male |
Female | ||||
|
Advanced industrialized economies | |||||||||
|
Australia |
45.9 |
51.0 |
58.1 |
33.7 |
58.0 |
43.3 | |||
|
Japan |
49.0 |
53.8 |
61.9 |
36.6 |
64.4 |
43.0 | |||
|
New Zealand |
49.0 |
50.1 |
56.1 |
29.1 |
55.8 |
43.2 | |||
|
East and Southeast Asian economies | |||||||||
|
Hong Kong (China) |
49.2 |
52.9 |
62.2 |
35.2 |
63.6 |
39.6 | |||
|
Rep. of Korea |
40.8 |
51.1 |
49.5 |
31.9 |
58.3 |
40.4 | |||
|
Malaysia |
38.5 |
41.3 |
50.7 |
26.1 |
50.2 |
30.1 | |||
|
Singapore |
46.3 |
49.7 |
59.3 |
32.7 |
61.2 |
39.6 | |||
|
Indonesia |
39.5 |
48.4 |
51.5 |
27.7 |
56.2 |
37.2 | |||
|
Philippines |
39.0 |
42.2 |
50.6 |
27.4 |
51.4 |
31.1 | |||
|
Thailand |
52.2 |
60.6 |
54.8 |
49.5 |
63.8 |
55.2 | |||
|
Transition economies |
|||||||||
|
Cambodia |
54.0 |
52.4 |
52.1 |
55.7 |
51.4 |
52.3 | |||
|
China |
54.9 |
59.9 |
60.6 |
48.9 |
63.7 |
55.6 | |||
|
Lao PDR |
51.6 |
47.6 |
56.1 |
47.1 |
51.8 |
44.8 | |||
|
Mongolia |
46.4 |
50.1 |
50.3 |
42.5 |
51.6 |
45.5 | |||
|
Viet Nam |
47.7 |
51.5 |
51.1 |
44.5 |
52.5 |
49.4 | |||
|
South Asian economies |
|||||||||
|
Bangladesh |
47.1 |
52.8 |
52.7 |
41.2 |
56.6 |
43.5 | |||
|
India |
43.6 |
44.4 |
55.8 |
30.5 |
57.4 |
28.6 | |||
|
Nepal |
48.5 |
46.4 |
57.9 |
38.5 |
54.4 |
37.8 | |||
|
Pakistan |
35.4 |
37.5 |
52.2 |
16.9 |
51.8 |
20.3 | |||
|
Sri Lanka |
36.8 |
43.9 |
52.8 |
20.2 |
54.6 |
30.1 | |||
|
South Pacific economies |
|||||||||
|
Fiji |
32.1 |
40.6 |
52.4 |
11.2 |
53.9 |
21.7 | |||
|
Papua New Guinea |
49.3 |
49.2 |
54.8 |
43.2 |
55.4 |
42.4 | |||
|
Source: ILO, World Labour Report (WLR), 1997/1998. | |||||||||
Table 2.5. Employment by sector in selected economies, 1980-97 (per cent)
|
Country/region |
Agriculture |
Industry |
Services | |||||||||
|
1980 |
1990 |
1995-97 |
1980 |
1990 |
1995-97 |
1980 |
1990 |
1995-97 | ||||
|
Advanced industrialized economies | ||||||||||||
|
Australia |
6.5 |
5.4 |
5.1 |
30.9 |
24.9 |
22.5 |
62.6 |
68.8 |
72.2 | |||
|
Japan |
10.4 |
7.2 |
5.5 |
35.3 |
34.1 |
33.3 |
54.0 |
58.2 |
60.8 | |||
|
New Zealand |
10.9 |
10.6 |
9.5 |
33.8 |
24.6 |
24.7 |
55.3 |
64.4 |
65.5 | |||
|
East and Southeast Asian economies | ||||||||||||
|
Hong Kong (China) |
32.0 |
23.0 |
12.0 |
50.2 |
36.7 |
25.7 |
48.4 |
62.4 |
73.9 | |||
|
Rep. of Korea |
34.0 |
17.9 |
11.6 |
29.0 |
35.4 |
32.5 |
37.0 |
46.7 |
55.9 | |||
|
Malaysia |
37.2 |
26.0 |
19.4 |
24.1 |
27.5 |
32.2 |
38.7 |
46.5 |
48.4 | |||
|
Singapore |
1.3.0 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
35.7 |
36.2 |
30.2 |
62.6 |
63.4 |
69.6 | |||
|
Indonesia |
55.9 |
55.9 |
44.8 |
13.2 |
13.7 |
18.1 |
30.2 |
30.2 |
37.9 | |||
|
Philippines |
51.8 |
45.2 |
41.7 |
15.4 |
15.0 |
16.6 |
32.8 |
39.7 |
41.6 | |||
|
Thailand |
70.8 |
64.0 |
50.3 |
10.3 |
14.0 |
19.7 |
||||||