This paper represents a contribution to the ILO's Action Programme on Youth Unemployment being undertaken in the 1996-97 biennium. The Action Programme is intended to: (i) raise awareness amongst constituents concerning the problems associated with the labour market entry of young people; (ii) to improve their understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of the principal policy and programme options for tackling the problem of youth unemployment; and thus, (iii) enhance the capacity of member States to design and implement policies and programmes for promoting youth employment. The Action Programme includes country case studies from all over the world as well as policy reviews concentrating on specific topics within the ambit of the youth unemployment "problem". The country case studies will be used as the basis for the major output of the Programme, a comparative report on youth unemployment and youth employment policy.
Since the beginning of planning in India, the youth have been recognised as "the most vital section of the community". (India, Planning Commission, 1952. p. 615). Among the problems faced by the youth, particular reference has been made to unemployment (besides inadequate educational facilities and lack of opportunities for social development, national service and leadership). Quite appropriately, the problem of youth unemployment has been recognised as an aspect of the national unemployment problem. However, the varied youth welfare activities, including the promotion of sports, have been designed and developed in a setting in which the much higher relative incidence of youth unemployment has not received adequate attention.
In 1985, the international year of the youth, the Department of Youth Affairs and Sports, Ministry of Human Resource Development, Government of India, initiated a proposal to formulate a National Youth Policy. The National Youth Policy, was tabled in the two houses of Parliament in late 1988. It has recognised that "the most important component of the youth programme" has to be the "removal of unemployment, both rural and urban, educated and non-educated". However, not much specific action has been initiated to implement the objective of removing or even alleviating unemployment among the youth, incorporated in the National Youth Policy of 1988. More recently, the "National Agenda for Governance", prepared by the BJP (the Bharatiya Janata Party) and its alliance partners, has proposed to harness the Youth Power ("Yuva Shakti"). The Agenda envisages "all necessary steps to mobilise" this "most idealistic, inspired and energetic section of our society in the mission of nation-building". For this purpose, the alliance partners propose to build a "national consensus for the creation of a National Reconstruction Corps aimed at environmental protection, ecological tasks, reclamation of waste land, including afforestation, and for spreading literacy". In view of the experience of the leadership of the BJP in collaborating with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (the National Volunteer Corps), the new government may find it easier (than its predecessors) to initiate some action to implement the proposal incorporated in the National Agenda.
The reference to the idealism of the youth in the National Agenda, noted above, probably needs scrutiny. However, the proposed national reconstruction corps could be one means of tackling the problem of unemployment among the youth. However, to help formulate a comprehensive approach to the problems of youth and to evolve the necessary measures to mitigate youth unemployment, a careful review of the available data base and the policy initiatives taken so far is essential. The present study attempts the requisite review, particularly of the statistical data base available through the various surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey.
The study has been undertaken at the invitation of the South Asia Multidisciplinary Advisory Team (SAAT) of the International Labour Organisation (ILO), New Delhi. Grateful thanks are due to Dr. A.S. Oberai, Director of the Team, for his kind invitation and support. Discussions with Dr. Ajit Ghose of the ILO have been most useful and I am indebted to him. The study has benefited from the advice and assistance of Mr. Paul Jacob, a retired Joint Director of the National Sample Survey Organisation, Calcutta. A draft of the paper was presented at a meeting hosted by the ILO in December 1997 to consult with some senior colleagues to improve it. Several useful suggestions were received from Dr. S.R. Hashim, now Member-Secretary of the Planning Commission; Dr. Kanta Ahuja, a Professor at the Institute of Development Studies, Jaipur; Dr.D.P. Chaudhri of the University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia; and a few other friends. Their comments and suggestions have been taken into account to revise the paper. During the concluding phase of the study, Ms. Vandana Parashar has read the draft of the report and has helped to improve it.
Gek-Boo Ng
Chief
Employment and Labour Market Policies Branch
I. Introduction
A study of unemployment among the youth must begin with a recognition of the overall labour market characteristics of a country. These themes are briefly reviewed below.
(a) Labour Force Participation Rates (LFPRs)
Table 1.1 below summarises the crude LFPRs estimated on the basis of the five quinquennial surveys, separately by rural urban residence and gender. (The rates are called "crude" because the denominator refers to the population of all ages together, rather than only the population of working ages, which are defined differently in various countries). Only the rates based on the usual status (including subsidiary workers) are shown as they provide a comprehensive perspective. Table A.1 in the appendix shows the estimates of population (as well as workers) by gender and rural-urban residence, for the mid-points of the survey periods, to enable the estimation of absolute number of persons in the labour force, etc. These estimates are based on interpolations between the census figures of 1971, 1981 and 1991; the rates of natural increase reported by the Sample Registration System for the period 1991-95; and a projection of the proportion of urban population in 1996.(India, Registrar General, 1996).
Table 1.1
India: Labour force participation rates (LFPRs)
according to usual status by gender and rural-urban residence
1972-73 to 1993-94
Sector/Gender
1972-73
1977-78
1983
1987-88
1993-94
India
Persons
Males
Females
42.0
54.5
28.6
43.9
56.0
31.0
43.0
55.1
30.0
42.2
54.5
29.0
42.7
55.6
28.7
Rural India
Persons
Males
Females
43.9
55.1
32.1
45.8
56.5
34.5
45.2
55.5
34.2
44.3
54.9
33.1
44.9
56.1
33.0
Urban India
Persons
Males
Females
34.5
52.1
14.2
37.5
54.3
18.3
36.2
54.0
15.9
35.6
53.4
16.2
36.3
54.3
16.5
The LFPRs show a reasonable stability in the rates for rural males around 55-56 percent and for urban males around 52-54 percent. The rates for females have tended to fluctuate between 32 to 34 percent in rural areas and between 14 and 18 percent in urban India. (The initial estimates for 1972-73 are approximate because the survey did not provide an estimate of the population aged 0-4. The tabulation of the data was manual and the slips for the age group 0-4 were not tabulated to save the cost and time).
The broad stability of crude LFPRs reported in Table 1.1 needs to be reassessed after age-standardisation. However, the first three surveys have provided age specific rates for 15 year age groups and not for five year age groups; the latter are available for 1987-88 and 1993-94. The latter rates suggest a clear decline in the LFPRs for the young aged 10-24 during the last inter-survey period. As shown below in the next section, the main contributory factor has been the rise in school attendance rates. The LFPRs for urban females have evidently risen, probably because of the rise in the proportion of high school and college graduates in the population, as well as inflationary pressures and the need for supplementing the earnings of the main breadwinner of the family.
The labour force includes both the workers or the employed and the unemployed. Data an industry, occupation and status are not available for the unemployed. Therefore, any study of the changes in the structure of the workforce must start with a review of the estimates of the proportion of workers or the worker population ratios (WPRs)(1). For this purpose also, the best course is to consider the "usual status" rates based on the long reference period of one year, which seem to be conceptually comparable with the census data.
(b) Crude Worker Population Ratios
Table 1.2 summarises the crude WPRs based on the censuses of 1951-1991 and also the estimates based on the NSS 9th round, five quinquennial surveys between 1972-73 and 1993-94 and the three annual surveys of 1989-90, 1990-91 and 1992. The WPRs are shown separately for rural and urban areas as well as for males and females. The combined rates for India as a whole are also presented. The NSS estimates based on the usual status concept include workers according to both principal and subsidiary statuses; while the estimates based on the censuses of 1971-1991 cover both main and marginal workers. The census-based estimates are included in the table essentially to show the non-comparability of the WPRs of women based on the NSS and censuses, and to caution the users of data to avoid during unwarranted conclusions about the decline in the labour force participation rates.(2)
The large national surveys, conducted by well-trained investigators, are unlikely to overestimate the female WPRs. The differences between the census and the NSS estimates of WPRs are observed more in the WPRs of females. They result from mainly the response errors and the fact that most women perform multiple roles. They combine economic activities with hose-work and many of them (or the respondents) regard the latter as their primary activity. Yet if careful effort is made, it is not impossible to identity whether and which women participate in work or economic activities. These behaviour patterns are unlikely to show large fluctuations from year to year.
Table 1.2
India: Worker population ratios by sex and rural-urban residence
1951 to 1993-94
Year/Source/
(NSS Round)
India
Rural India
Urban India
P
M
F
P
M
F
P
M
F
1951
1955
1961
Census
NSS(9)
Census
39.1
-
43.0
53.9
-
57.1
23.4
-
28.0
39.5
43.2
45.1
53.5
59.2
58.2
25.0
26.6
31.4
37.1
32.4
33.5
56.4
51.4
52.4
14.7
11.6
11.1
1971
1972-73
1977-78
Census
NSS(27)
NSS(32)
34.0
41.3
42.2
52.7
53.5
54.2
13.9
28.2
29.3
36.1
43.5
44.4
53.6
54.5
55.2
15.5
31.8
33.1
29.6
33.1
34.4
48.9
50.1
50.8
7.1
13.4
15.6
1981
1983
1987-88
1989-90
1990-91
Census(a)
NSS(38)
NSS(43)
NSS(45)
NSS(46)
36.8
42.2
41.1
41.2
40.4
52.6
53.8
53.1
53.9
54.3
19.8
29.6
28.1
27.6
25.4
38.9
44.6
43.4
43.7
42.7
53.8
54.7
53.9
54.8
55.3
23.2
34.0
32.3
31.9
29.2
30.0
34.3
33.9
33.9
33.8
49.1
51.2
50.6
51.2
51.3
8.3
15.1
15.2
14.6
14.3
1991
1992
1993-94
Census*
NSS(48)
NSS(50)
37.5
41.2
42.0
51.6
54.3
54.5
22.3
27.0
28.6
40.0
43.8
44.4
52.5
55.6
55.3
26.7
31.3
32.8
30.2
33.6
34.7
48.9
50.7
52.0
9.2
14.6
15.4
(a) Excludes Assam
* Excludes Jammu & Kashmir
Also, the broad comparability of the recent survey-based estimates of female WPRs with those of the 1961 Census confirms that the declines in these ratios suggested by the subsequent censuses are not real. The survey data suggest a reasonable stability since the early 1970s in worker population ratios for rural males around 54 per cent, for rural females between 32-34 per cent, for urban males between 49-52 per cent and for urban females between 13-15 per cent. The worker population ratios for the total population of the country have been stable around 41-42 per cent.
Overall, the reported level of employment in the country has not declined despite the substantial growth of population from 439 million in 1961 to 846 million in 1991 and further to 894 million by January 1, 1994. The absolute number of workers in India has risen from 189 million on March 1, 1961 to 234 million on April 1, 1973 and 374 million on January 1, 1994. Admittedly, these data do not indicate anything about the quality of employment and particularly about the incomes of the workers. However, the male as well as the female WPRs reported by the 1993-94 survey are higher than those based on the 1987-88 survey.
Prima facie, the hypothesis formulated earlier (Visaria and Minhas, 1990.), that the 1987-88 survey results were influenced by the severe drought during the year, seems to be partly corroborated by the recent results. Yet, the recent estimate of the WPR for rural females is about 1 percentage point lower than that based on the 1983 survey; the decline is partly compensated by the slight rise in the urban female WPR.(3) The male WPRs in both rural and urban areas (which tend to be markedly higher than the female WPRs) have risen by more than 1 percentage point relative to both 1987-88 and 1983.
The 1993-94 quinquennial survey has been the first large-scale survey of the NSSO after the economic reform programme began in the country in 1991. Its results suggest that the level of employment has not been affected adversely by the reforms. This seems true of not only the urban areas but also of the rural areas. Also, the reported displacement of female workers in several specific activities seems to be compensated by their finding a niche elsewhere in the economy. While the stress and strain involved in such processes need to be recognised and minimised, the macro perspective seems to suggest that the people have somehow managed to find alternative income sources in the economy. With the well-known slowdown of the growth of employment in the public or the organised sector of the economy, the share of the informal sector and the self-employed in total employment is likely to be rising. The data on this subject need a careful review. We shall first consider the available evidence on the level of open unemployment in terms of alternative concepts of usual status, the current weekly status, and the current daily status.
(c) Level of Unemployment
Data on the incidence of unemployment in rural and urban India are summarised in Table 1.3. These data show the unemployed as percent of the labour force, in terms of the relevant concept. The absolute numbers of unemployed persons (according to all the three concepts) are shown in Tables A.2.
The 1993-94 survey data suggest a decline in the level of open unemployment in the country between 1987-88 and 1993-94. A decline of the order of 1 percentage point is seen in the rates of unemployment in terms of both usual and current weekly statuses in rural as well as urban areas. The rates based on current weekly status indicator a decline of one percentage point among both males and females; but the usual status rates have declined by one percentage point or more rural females and urban males. A similar decline is evident in the unemployment rate in terms of current daily status, the most comprehensive measure of unemployment attempted in the NSS surveys, among males as well as females in urban areas and among rural females; but the corresponding estimate for rural males shows a rise of 1 percentage point. It is possible that the drought relief works started by several state governments during 1987-88 had contributed to a reduction in the level of rural underemployment among males. The various employment programmes started during the past few years have not compensated for the virtual elimination of the drought relief works.
In view of the higher unemployment rates among the "educated", Table 1.4 presents data specifically for persons with secondary and higher education and graduates and above, aged 15 and over according to the surveys of 1987-88 and 1993-94. The data suggest that the open unemployment rates (in terms of usual status) have declined among the "educated" or the matriculates and college graduates between 1987-88 and 1993-94. In terms of usual principal status, the decline in unemployment is quite marked, except among the urban graduate females (over one percentage point). In terms of the usual principal and subsidiary statuses together, the decline has been of the order of one percentage point among the matriculate and higher educated males in both rural and urban areas; the rate for urban females has remained almost unchanged at 18 percent, while that for rural females has dropped sharply from 24 to 16 percent.
Table 1.3
India: Incidence of unemployment according to alternative concepts
by gender and rural urban residence
NSS Data for 1972-73 to 1993-94
Concept/
Year
India
Rural India
Urban India
P
M
F
P
M
F
P
M
F
Usual Status
1972-73
1977-78
1983
1987-88
1993-94
1.6
2.6
1.9
2.7
1.9
1.9
2.2
2.3
2.6
2.2
1.0
3.3
1.2
2.9
1.4
0.9
1.5
1.1
2.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.8
1.4
0.5
2.0
0.7
2.4
0.8
5.1
7.1
5.0
5.4
4.4
4.8
5.4
5.1
5.2
4.0
6.0
12.4
4.9
6.2
6.2
Weekly Status
1972-73
1977-78
1983
1987-88
1993-94
4.3
4.5
4.5
4.8
3.6
3.7
4.4
4.4
4.8
3.5
5.9
5.0
4.8
5.0
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.2
3.0
3.0
3.6
3.7
4.2
3.0
5.5
4.0
4.3
4.3
3.0
6.6
7.8
6.8
7.0
5.8
6.0
7.1
6.7
6.6
5.2
9.2
10.9
7.5
9.2
8.4
Daily Status
1972-73
1977-78
1983
1987-88
1993-94
8.3
8.2
8.3
6.1
6.0
7.0
7.6
8.0
5.6
5.9
11.5
10.0
9.3
7.5
6.3
8.2
7.7
7.9
5.2
5.6
6.8
7.1
7.5
4.6
5.6
11.2
9.2
9.0
6.7
5.6
9.0
10.3
9.6
9.4
7.4
8.0
9.4
9.2
8.8
6.7
13.7
14.5
11.0
12.0
10.5
Sources
Sarvekshana, - Journal of the National Sample Survey Organisation, Vol. XI, No. 4, Issue No. 35, April 1988.
Sarvekshana, Special Number, Sept. 1990, Results of the Fourth Quinquennial Survey on Employment and Unemployment(All India).
National Sample Survey Organisation. Report no.409. Employment and Unemployment in India, 1993-94: NSS Fiftieth Round. July 1993-June 1994. New Delhi.1997.
Table 1.4
India: Incidence of unemployment among educated persons
(with secondary and higher education and graduates and above)
aged 15 and over, 1987 and 1993-94
Area/concept/
education
Persons
Males
Females
1987-88
1993-94
1987-88
1993-94
1987-88
1993-94
(A) PERSONS WITH SECONDARY AND HIGHER EDUCATION
(1) Rural India
Usual principal
status
13.7
10.3
11.4
8.8
34.1
24.9
Usual principal &
subsidiary status
9.4
7.5
7.4
6.5
24.1
16.0
Current Weekly
Status
NA
9.5
NA
8.3
NA
19.8
(2) Urban India
Usual Principal
Status
10.2
8.9
8.3
6.9
22.9
20.6
Usual Principal &
Subsidiary Status
8.7
7.8
7.2
6.0
17.8
18.2
Current Weekly
Status
NA
9.0
NA
7.0
NA
19.6
(B) GRADUATES AND ABOVE (3) Rural India
Usual principal
status
16.9
15.2
15.0
13.2
37.3
34.6
Usual principal &
subsidiary status
12.0
11.5
10.2
9.8
30.4
27.4
Current Weekly
status
NA
14.2
NA
12.2
NA
32.0
(4) Urban India
Usual principal
status
9.8
8.9
7.4
6.4
21.0
20.6
Usual principal &
subsidiary status
8.9
8.1
6.7
5.6
18.7
18.9
Current weekly
status
NA
8.8
NA
6.3
NA
20.2
The data relating to the graduates and higher-educated also show a decline in unemployment in terms of the usual principal status, although the drop is negligible and insignificant in the case of urban females. In terms of usual principal and subsidiary statuses together, the decline in unemployment remains noteworthy among rural females and urban males but not among rural males and urban females. (The data in terms of current weekly status are not available from the published tabulations of the 1987-88 survey).
The decline in unemployment rates seems surprising in view of the slow growth of employment opportunities in the organised sector, in which the educated seek work. The possible explanations include some decline in the labour force participation rates of the "educated". This hypothesis is supported by the labour force participation rates presented in Table 1.5 for the last two surveys for persons with secondary education (including higher secondary) in both rural and urban India, and for the female graduates in urban areas but not for the graduates resident in rural India or the male graduates in urban India. It is likely that the percentage of persons continuing education beyond the secondary level has risen because of the difficult employment situation for persons who have just completed the 10th standard of high school.
Table 1.5:
India: Labour force participation rates for persons aged 15 and over
with secondary and higher secondary education and graduates and above
1987-88 and 1993-94
Education/
survey year
Rural
persons
Rural
males
Rural
females
Urban
persons
Urban
males
Urban
females
(A) USUAL PRINCIPAL STATUS
(i) SECONDARY (INCLUDING HIGHER SECONDARY)
1987-88
1993-94
62.9
58.4
74.2
72.1
26.3
20.0
50.7
47.4
70.7
68.3
16.2
14.5
(ii) GRADUATE AND ABOVE
1987-88
1993-94
81.5
83.6
90.1
91.3
39.9
44.8
70.3
68.7
86.4
86.2
35.5
(B) PRINCIPAL + SUBSIDIARY STATUS
(i) SECONDARY (INCLUDING HIGHER SECONDARY)
1987-88
1993-94
67.8
63.5
78.2
75.7
33.9
29.2
52.4
48.9
71.9
69.3
18.8
16.7
(ii) GRADUATE AND ABOVE
1987-88
1993-94
83.9
85.4
92.1
92.4
44.1
50.4
71.4
69.5
87.0
86.7
39.0
37.1
Sources: (1=) Sarvekshana, Special Number, September 1990, S200-S205,S212-S217
In addition, the work-seekers seem to have compromised on their aspirations and expectations and adjusted to the labour market by accepting the available work. According to the 1993-94 survey, almost 58 percent of the "educated" or secondary and higher-educated workers in rural India were self-employed, whereas the corresponding proportion in 1987-88 was only 31. This increase has been associated with a sharp decline in the proportion of casual workers from 47 to 11 percent and a rise in the share of the regular wage or salary earners from 22 to 31 percent. Overall, in terms of the status distribution of the educated workers, the rural employment situation for the educated can be said to have improved. (The share of agriculture among the educated workforce has changed little from 49.4 to 50.4 percent over the inter-survey period)
In urban India, the casual workers accounted for only 2 to 3 percent of the educated workers both in 1987-88 and 1993-94, but the share of the self-employed has risen from 16 to 34 percent, whereas the share of the regular employees has shown a compensating drop. This trend is consistent with the reported stagnation in the organised sector employment and is likely to continue in the years ahead, as the rate of growth of public sector employment is held down by the fiscal crisis and the private sector seeks to raise productivity through the substitution of capital for labour or the choice of most capital-intensive technology.
II. The youth labour market in Inida: An overview
The preceding discussion relating to the broad trends in the Indian employment and unemployment situation provides a backdrop for understanding the labour market faced by the Indian youth. The youth are defined as persons in the age group 15-24. A distinction is made between the teenagers or the age group 15-19 and the young adults aged 20-24, and between males and females by rural-urban residence.
The above definition of "Youth" differs from that of the National Youth Policy of India, that aimed at covering a third of the population of the country (because it has focused on the age group 10-34). Some press reports have mentioned a figure of 300 million youth in the country and an ambitious National Perspective Plan for Youth, being implemented by the Ministry of Human Resource Development and aimed at channelling the "vital and vibrant resource" of youth and making them participate in "their own development and in shaping the destiny of the nation" (Husain, 1996).(4)
(a) Estimates of the Number and Proportion of Young People
Estimates of the number of "youth" and their proportion in the total population are more difficult than might be expected a priori even for the census years, because of the common errors of age reporting. Table 2.1 below summarises the decennial census data on the number of Indian youth during 1961-1991 by rural-urban residence and gender. The 1991 census data have reported the number of youth in India as 153.5 million or 18.3 percent of the total population. However, these data excluded the state of Jammu and Kashmir, where the census was not conducted. If the estimated population of Jammu and Kashmir (7.7 million) had the same age distribution as the rest of India, the number of youth in India would be 154.9 million. These estimates need a modification, if we use the smoothed or adjusted age data, smoothed according to the well-established mathematical techniques to minimise the effects of age mis-reporting. The smoothed age distribution indicates the number of youth in India to be 156.4 million in India excluding Jammu and Kashmir and 157.8 million, (18.5 percent of the total population of the country), if an estimate for the population of Jammu and Kashmir is taken into consideration.(5) If an allowance is made for the usual tendency of most censuses to undercount the population, the total population of India and the number of Indian youth on March 1, 1991, would be estimated at 861.2 and 159.3 million, respectively. (The estimate of net undercount is based on the post-enumeration check conducted after the 1991 Census) (Census of India, 1991. 1994. p.9).(6)
Table 2.1
Number of youth by rural-urban residence and gender
according to the decennial census data 1961-1991
Census
Year/Sex
Number in the Age Group (Millions)
15 - 19
20 - 24
15 - 24
Youth as Percent
of Total Population
Rural
Urban
All Areas
Rural
Urban
All Areas
Rural
Urban
All Areas
Rural
Urban
All Areas
1961
Males
Females
All
14.69
14.08
28.77
3.91
3.20
7.11
18.60
7.28
35.88
13.95
15.62
29.57
4.25
3.52
7.76
18.20
19.14
37.33
28.64
29.70
58.34
8.16
6.72
14.88
36.80
36.42
73.22
15.60
16.80
16.20
19.10
18.60
18.90
16.30
17.10
16.70
1971
Males
Females
All
19.26
17.26
36.52
5.96
4.98
10.95
25.22
22.24
47.47
5.84
16.80
32.64
5.73
4.73
10.46
21.57
21.53
43.10
35.10
34.06
69.16
11.69
9.71
21.41
46.79
43.77
90.57
15.60
15.90
15.80
19.90
19.30
19.60
16.50
16.60
16.50
1981
Males
Females
All
24.84
23.13
48.97
9.09
7.91
17.00
34.93
31.04
65.97
21.03
21.61
42.64
8.80
7.57
16.37
29.83
29.18
59.01
46.87
44.74
91.61
17.89
15.48
33.37
64.76
60.22
24.98
17.40
17.50
17.40
21.00
20.70
20.90
18.30
18.20
18.20
1991
Males
Females
All
30.48
26.54
57.02
11.75
10.27
22.02
42.23
36.81
79.04
26.26
26.76
53.02
11.26
10.20
21.46
37.52
36.96
74.48
56.74
53.30
110.04
23.01
20.47
43.48
79.75
73.77
153.52
17.70
17.70
17.70
20.20
20.10
20.20
18.30
18.30
18.30
Notes: Figures for 1981 exclude Assam whereas those for 1991 exclude Jammu and Kashmir.
The problems of uncertainty about the size and relative proportion of the youth in the population are even more sharply evident in the surveys. Even the large sample survey of nearly 115,409 households (69,230 rural and 46,179 urban households), that was conducted by the National Sample Survey during 1993-94, shows a higher proportion of the youth in both rural and urban India (18.2 and 20.5 percent, respectively) than the !991 Census (17.7 and 20.2 percent respectively). (The 1987-88 survey had also shown the same feature in its estimate of the age composition of the population). Even the Sample Registration System (SRS), which follows up a sample of 6,022 rural and urban areas with a population of about 1.3 million to estimate the birth and death rates in rural and urban areas of different states of the country, reports the youth to be forming a higher proportion of population than is indicated by the censuses. However, the SRS estimates of the proportion of the youth in the country's population were 20.4, 20.3 and 20.2 percent in 1991, 1992 and 1993, respectively; but the figure has dropped to 19.0 percent in 1994. (India, Registrar General, 1991, 1992, 1993 and 1994).(7) Table A.3 shows the SRS estimates of the percentage of youth in the population during successive quinquennial surveys for possible comparison with the data presented in Table 2.1.
According to the National Family health survey, 1992-93, which covered nearly 88,562 households throughout the country, the de facto population of the surveyed households included a higher proportion of the youth (19.4 percent) than the de jure population (19.0 percent) (International Institute for Population Sciences, 1995). (The term "de facto population" refers to the persons actually resident in the household at the time of survey, whereas the 'de jure population' relates to the usual residents of the surveyed households.) This was so despite the fact that overall, the de jure population of the surveyed households exceeded their de facto population. The explanation lay in the much higher mobility of the youth, particularly the young women. Young women aged 15-24 seem to be more likely to be enumerated in a de facto count than in a de jure count, whereas the opposite tends to be true for young men. Quite likely, the respondents more easily recall and report to a survey investigator the absent young men than the absent young women, whose membership of the household is less well established than that of the former in a patriarchal exogamous society (Ibid. pp.36-42).
In sum, it is difficult to build a firm estimate of the number and proportion of the youth in India from the alternative estimates noted above. However, Table 2.2 summarises the United Nations estimates of the total population and the youth as well as the share of the latter in the total for the past 45 years and also the projections for the next 50 years. The UN estimates include an adjustment for the net undercount of population in the censuses and relate to the mid-points of the specified years. According to these estimates, the number of youth in India already exceeded 165 million in mid-1990 and 175 million by mid-1995 (Census of India, 1991.).(8) These projected estimates are based on reasonable assumptions about the course of mortality and fertility; but are certainly not forecasts. They will need to be compared with the various SRS-based estimates and modified over time.
According to the UN estimates, the average annual increase in the number of youth in India was 3.06 million during 1985-90, and 2.1 million during 1990-95. However, the figure is expected to rise to 3.14 million during 1995-2000 and further to a peak of 3.72 million during 2000-2005. Thereafter, the annual increment will decline because of the recent and prospective drop in fertility in India. Further, according to the UN estimates and projections, the proportion of the youth in the total population of India has been fluctuating between 17.7 and 19.5 percent between 1950 and 1995. The share is again expected to rise from an estimated 18.9 percent in 1995 to 19.4 percent in 2005; but will, thereafter, decline almost steadily to 13 percent by 2050.(9)
The best option for the present discussion seems to be to use a figure of 19.0 percent as the proportion of the youth in India. Also, pending further exercises in population projections, one can overlook the fluctuation in the annual increments in the number of youth and relate the discussion to an annual increase of the order of 2.6 million between 1990 and 2000, the average figure based on the data for these years presented in Table 2.2. (This figure is lower than the estimated increase in the number of the youth in India between January 1, 1988 and January 1, 1994, according to the population estimates presented in Table A.1. Estimates of youth for the mid-points of successive NSS survey periods, based on the SRS age distributions of population, are presented in Table A.4).
(b) Labour Force Participation Rates of Young People
As noted above, estimates of the number and/or the proportion of the youth in India are available from both the censuses and some of the surveys. For the estimates of labour force participation rates, on the other hand, the census data are of limited use, partly because census enumerators cannot be expected to obtain dependable information on unemployed persons in the population. (See Section I above). Also, there is good reason to believe that the estimates of the female workforce in the post-1961 censuses have suffered from a sizeable undercount of the number of working women. Therefore, it is necessary to rely on the alternative estimates available from the NSS.
The NSS estimates for the period 1958-67 are based on the reference period of the week preceding the date of survey; whereas beginning 1972-73, the five quinquennial surveys of the NSS have covered a fairly large sample of households and have prepared estimates based on three alternative concepts of usual status, weekly status, and daily status. Unfortunately, prior to 1987-88, the tabulations have not always compiled data on the labour force characteristics of the population by five year age groups, which would permit an analysis of the labour market behaviour of the youth. These constraints limit much of the ensuing discussion to the data for the last two quinquennial surveys of 1987-88 and 1993-94, but wherever possible, an attempt will be made to draw on the earlier data for the 1960s to assess the changes or the underlying processes.
Table 2.2
Estimates and projections by the United Nations
of the total population and the proportion and number
of youth aged 15-24, 1950-2050
*Decennial change
Source: United Nations, Department for Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis. Population Division. World Population Prospects: The 1996 Revision. Annex II & III.
Demographic Indicators by Major Area, Region and Country. New York. October 24, 1996, p.228.
Table 2.3 summarises the labour force participation rates for 1987-88 and 1993-94 for the youth by gender, age and rural-urban residence. While the rates for the age group 15 and over show a reasonable stability, the labour force participation by the youth in terms of usual status seems to have declined by about or over 2 percentage points in both rural and urban India. Such a change raises a doubt that a difficult labour market situation may be discouraging participation in economic activity by the youth. To assess this possibility, we need to examine the activities of persons not classified as in the labour force.(10)
Table 2.3(a)
Labour force participation rates of the youth aged 15-24
and population aged 15 and above by gender and rural-urban residence
according to alternative concepts
1987-88 and 1993-94
India
Gender/Year/Concept
15 - 19
20 - 24
15 - 24
15 +
Males
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
58.1
54.7
88.3
86.5
71.9
69.6
86.1
85.5
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
53.7
52.1
87.3
85.0
68.9
67.6
83.8
84.0
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
53.5
50.3
85.9
83.2
68.2
65.8
83.5
82.3
Females
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
35.3
30.7
41.5
40.6
38.3
29.7
43.1
42.2
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
24.9
26.3
28.6
33.1
35.7
29.7
30.7
5.7
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
24.5
22.5
27.7
28.1
26.1
25.3
29.7
30.2
Males and Females
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
47.6
43.6
65.1
64.1
55.8
53.5
65.3
64.6
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
40.4
40.2
58.2
59.7
48.8
49.6
58.1
60.6
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
40.1
37.5
57.1
56.3
48.1
46.6
57.5
57.1
Table 2.3(b)
Labour force participation rates of the youth aged 15-24
and population aged 15 and above by gender
according to alternative concepts
1987-88 and 1993-94: Rural India
Rural India
Gender/Year/Concept
15 - 19
20 - 24
15 - 24
15 +
Males
Usual Status
1987-881
993-94
63.0
59.8
91.8
90.2
75.9
73.2
87.9
87.6
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
57.7
56.6
89.1
88.3
71.7
70.6
85.2
>85.7
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
57.7
54.5
89.0
86.3
71.6
68.5
85.0
83.8
Females
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
41.5
37.1
48.4
46.9
45.0
42.0
49.6
49.0
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
28.8
31.2
32.4
37.5
30.6
34.4
34.5
40.8
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
28.4
26.6
31.5
31.5
30.0
29.1
33.5
34.3
Persons
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
53.0
49.5
68.8
67.9
60.5
58.2
68.9
68.6
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
44.3
45.1
59.0
62.1
51.3
53.1
60.0
63.7
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
44.1
41.9
58.5
58.1
51.0
49.6
59.4
59.4
Table 2.3(c)
Labour force participation rates of the youth aged 15-24
and population aged 15 and above
by gender according to alternative concepts
1987-88 and 1993-94: Urban India
Urban India
Gender/Year/Concept
15 - 19
20 - 24
15 - 24
15 +
Males
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
42.9
40.4
79.2
77.1
60.3
57.3
81.0
80.1
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
41.2
39.7
78.0
76.4
58.8
56.6
80.1
79.5
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
40.8
38.8
77.4
75.2
58.3
55.6
79.4
78.4
Females
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
16.9
14.1
22.5
23.0
19.7
18.4
23.9
23.8
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
13.5
13.4
18.0
20.9
15.7
17.1
19.4
21.8
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
12.9
11.8
17.3
18.6
15.1
15.1
18.5
19.3
Persons
Usual Status
1987-88
1993-94
30.9
28.4
51.8
51.0
41.1
39.1
53.8
53.3
Weekly Status
1987-88
1993-94
28.4
27.7
49.0
49.7
38.4
38.1
51.2
52.0
Daily Status
1987-88
1993-94
27.9
26.5
48.4
48.0
37.9
36.7
50.4
50.3
Table 2.4 presents the usual activity distribution of the youth by age, gender and rural urban residence. It suggests that the main factor underlying the decline in the LFPR of youth is likely to be the rise in proportion of youth (particularly in the age group 15-19) attending an educational institution. The process is confirmed by not only the percentage of those who reported studying to be their usual activity but also by the proportion of those who responded affirmatively to a direct question about their current attendance at a school or college. Table 2.5 shows the school attendance ratios based on the 1987-88 and 1993-94 surveys and the 1991 Census. The data suggest a marked rise in the school and college attendance ratios.
Table 2.4
India: Distribution of youth aged 15-24 by gender
rural urban residence, and usual activity, 1987-88 and 1993-94
Usual
Activity
Year
Male
Female
Persons
15-19
20-24
15-24
15-19
20-24
15-24
15-19
20-24
15-24
Rural India
All
1987-88
1993-94
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Working
1987-88
1993-94
60.0
57.7
87.2
85.9
72.1
70.1
39.9
36.4
46.5
45.6
43.3
41.0
50.7
48.1
65.6
65.1
57.8
56.1
Unemployed
1987-88
1993-94
2.9
2.0
4.6
4.4
3.7
3.1
1.5
0.7
1.9
1.3
1.7
1.0
2.3
1.4
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.1
Labour
Force
1987-88
1993-94
62.9
59.7
91.8
90.2
75.8
73.2
41.5
37.1
48.4
46.9
45.0
42.0
53.0
49.5
68.8
67.9
60.5
58.2
Studying
1987-88
1993-94
32.2
(36.6)
36.8
(41.2)
6.4
(8.3)
8.0
(10.8)
20.7
(24.0)
24.1
(27.8)
12.5
(13.2
19.0
(20.8)
1.3
(1.7)
1.9
(2.9)
6.8
(7.3)
0.4
(11.8)
23.0
(25.7)
28.7
(32.0)
3.7
(4.8)
4.9
(6.8)
13.8
(17.3)
17.4
(20.1)
House work
1987-88
1993-94
1.0
0.6
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.6
43.0
41.9
49.4
50.5
46.3
46.2
20.5
19.3
26.5
26.2
23.4
22.6
Others
1987-88
1993-94
3.9
2.9
1.3
1.2
2.7
2.1
3.0
2.0
0.9
0.7
1.9
1.4
3.5
2.5
1.0
1.0
2.3
1.8
Urban India
All
1987-88
1993-94
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Working
1987-88
1993-94
35.5
35.6
67.4
67.4
50.8
50.3
14.6
12.3
18.5
18.0
16.5
15.1
25.8
25.0
43.8
43.6
34.6
33.8
Unemployed
1987-88
1993-94
7.4
4.8
11.8
9.7
9.5
7.1
2.3
1.8
4.0
5.0
3.1
3.4
5.0
3.4
8.0
7.4
6.5
5.3
Labour
Force
1987-88
1993-94
42.9
40.4
79.2
77.1
60.3
57.4
16.9
14.1
22.5
23.0
19.6
18.5
30.8
28.4
51.8
51.0
41.1
39.1
Studying
1987-88
1993-94
52.2
(52.9)
55.9
(56.9)
18.4
(19.5)
20.5
(22.5)
36.0
(37.0)
39.6
(41.1)
39.4
(39.5)
49.0
(49.7)
8.4
(9.0)
12.2
(13.4)
24.0
(24.3)
31.1
(32.0)
46.3
(46.7)
52.8
(53.7)
13.6
(14.4)
16.5
(18.1)
30.3
(31.0)
35.6
(36.9)
House work
1987-88
1993-94
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
41.0
34.9
67.9
63.7
54.4
48.9
19.4
16.2
33.0
30.9
26.0
23.2
Others
1987-88
1993-94
4.1
3.1
1.9
1.9
3.0
2.4
2.7
2.0
1.2
1.1
2.0
1.5
3.5
2.6
1.6
1.6
2.6
2.1
Note:Figures in parentheses show the percentage of persons reported as currently attending a school/college/educational institution
Table 2.5
India: Percent of youth (15-24) currently attending school or college
according to the NSS surveys
of 1987-88 and 1993-94 and the 1991 Census
Sector/Age/Year
Male
Female
Both Sexes
Rural India
15-19
1987-88 (NSS)
1991* (Census)
1993-94 (NSS)
36.6
40.6
41.2
13.2
18.0
20.8
25.7
30.2
32.0
20-24
1987-88
1991*
1993-94
8.3
12.5
10.8
1.7
3.0
2.9
4.8
7.7
6.8
Urban India
15-19
1987-88
1991* (Census)
1993-94 (94(NSS)
52.9
56.8
56.9
39.5
46.1
49.7
46.7
51.8
20-24
1987-88
1991*
1993-94
19.5
22.3
22.5
9.0
11.6
13.4
14.4
17.2
18.1
* Data exclude Jammu & Kashmir
It is noteworthy that the NSS labour force surveys of 1960-61 and 1961-62 (16th and 17th Rounds), using the week preceding the survey as the reference period, had reported male LFPRs for young males 15-19 of the order of 72-76 percent in rural areas and 44-48 percent for urban areas. These rates have declined to 60-63 percent in rural India by the 1990s; but in urban areas, they are estimated at 40-43 percent, almost the same as in the early 1960s. Evidently, the LFPRs for the next age group 20-24 and those for urban young females have also not changed significantly. The rise in the school attendance rates of the rural youth aged 15-19 has presumably contributed to the fall in their LFPRs.
To examine some possible indirect evidence indicating the possible discouragement of young members of the labour force, Table 2.6 presents the status and the broad sector (agriculture and non-agriculture) of those classified as working in terms of their usual status, along with the worker-population ratios for 1987-88 and 1993-94. (A sharp change in the status distribution would probably be taken to be suggestive of a discouragement effect). The data suggest that the decline in the rural WPR for ages 15-19 (which is adequately explained by the rise in school-attendance ratios) was not associated with any decline in the share of the self-employed; the share of the regular employees did, however, decline somewhat, with a compensating rise in the share of casual workers. Among urban teenager workers, there was no decline in the WPR, although the share of the self-employed had declined and that of employees had risen, mainly as a result of the rise in the percentage of casual employees in the non-agricultural sector. Among teenage urban female workers, however, the share of the regular employees had risen. Among young adult workers in urban areas, the share of the self-employed had risen a little among males but declined a little among females. Overall, the data do not suggest any discouragement effect on LFPR of the youth.(11)
Table 2.6
Percentage distribution of male and female workers aged 15-24
in rural and urban areas by status and sector of employment, 1987-88 and 1993-94
Status/Sector
Persons
Males
Females
1987-88
1993-94
1987-88
1993-94
1987-88
1993-94
Rural Workers Aged 15-19
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
48.5
8.1
56.6
47.8
9.4
57.2
48.5
9.2
57.7
47.8
9.7
57.5
48.6
6.0
54.6
47.8
8.8
56.6
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
3.2
2.8
6.0
1.0
2.5
3.5
4.3
3.2
7.5
1.6
3.1
4.7
1.5
2.0
3.5
0.3
1.6
1.9
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
29.0
8.3
37.3
31.6
7.5
39.1
26.3
8.5
34.8
29.3
8.7
38.0
33.6
8.3
41.9
36.0
4.9
40.9
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
80.9
19.1
100.0
80.7
19.3
100.0
79.2
20.8
100.0
78.7
21.3
100.0
83.7
16.3
100.0
84.3
15.7
100.0
Worker Population Ratio (%)
50.7
48.1
60.0
57.7
39.9
36.4
Rural Workers Aged 20-24
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
45.9
10.4
56.4
45.3
11.1
56.4
43.5
12.2
55.7
44.5
12.5
57.0
49.9
7.5
57.4
46.7
8.6
55.3
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
2.4
4.4
6.9
1.1
5.0
6.1
3.1
5.7
8.8
1.4
6.4
7.8
1.5
2.2
3.7
0.4
2.9
3.3
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
28.5
8.2
36.7
30.4
7.1
37.5
26.6
9.1
35.7
26.5
8.6
35.2
31.8
6.9
38.7
37.5
3.9
41.4
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
77.0
23.0
100.0
76.8
23.2
100.0
73.1
26.8
100.0
72.4
27.6
100.0
83.4
16.6
100.0
84.6
15.4
100.0
Workers Population
Ratio (%)
65.6
65.1
87.2
85.9
46.5
45.6
Rural Workers Aged 15-24
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
47.0
9.4
56.4
46.4
10.4
56.8
45.8
10.8
56.6
45.9
11.3
57.2
49.3
6.8
56.1
47.3
8.7
56.0
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
2.9
3.7
6.6
1.1
4.0
5.1
3.7
4.5
8.2
1.5
5.0
6.5
1.5
2.1
3.6
0.4
2.3
2.7
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
28.6
8.4
37.0
30.9
7.2
38.1
26.4
8.8
35.2
27.7
8.6
36.3
32.7
7.6
40.3
36.9
4.4
41.3
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
78.5
21.5
100.0
78.4
21.6
100.0
75.9
24.1
100.0
75.1
24.9
100.0
83.5
16.5
100.0
84.6
15.4
100.0
Worker Population Ratio (%)
58.3
56.6
72.1
70.8
43.1
41.0
Urban Workers Aged 15-19
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
8.9
38.0
46.9
8.0
34.4
42.4
7.3
38.3
42.6
7.0
34.0
41.0
13.7
35.6
49.3
11.4
35.8
47.2
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
0.4
24.8
25.2
0.4
25.2
25.6
0.6
28.2
28.8
0.6
27.0
27.5
-
15.8
15.8
-
19.5
19.5
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
6.2
22.1
28.3
6.4
25.6
32.0
4.2
21.4
25.6
4.8
26.7
31.5
11.6
23.2
34.9
11.4
22.0
33.4
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
15.5
84.5
100.0
14.8
85.2
100.0
11.8
88.2
100.0
12.4
87.6
100.0
25.3
74.7
100.0
22.0
78.0
100.0
Workers Population Ratio (%)
25.8
25.0
35.5
35.6
14.6
12.3
Urban Workers Aged 20-24
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
6.8
36.5
43.4
6.7
38.5
45.2
4.6
38.6
43.2
5.3
40.5
45.8
15.7
29.2
44.9
11.7
31.1
42.8
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
0.5
34.2
34.7
-
32.1
32.1
0.4
35.8
36.2
0.1
32.2
32.3
0.5
28.1
28.6
-
31.1
31.1
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
4.3
17.6
21.9
4.4
18.3
22.7
2.7
18.0
20.6
2.7
19.1
21.8
11.4
15.1
26.5
11.7
13.9
26.1
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
11.6
88.4
100.0
11.0
89.0
100.0
7.7
92.3
100.0
8.0
92.0
100.0
27.0
73.0
100.0
23.9
76.1
100.0
Worker Population Ratio (%)
43.8
43.6
67.4
67.4
18.5
18.0
Urban Workers Aged 15-24
SE
AG
NAG
ALL
7.7
37.0
44.7
7.1
37.1
44.2
5.6
38.5
44.1
5.9
38.2
44.1
14.8
32.0
46.8
11.6
33.1
44.7
RE
AG
NAG
ALL
0.4
30.7
31.1
0.2
29.5
29.7
0.5
33.0
33.5
0.3
30.2
30.5
0.3
22.7
23.0
-
26.4
26.4
CE
AG
NAG
ALL
5.1
19.1
24.2
5.2
20.9
26.1
3.2
19.2
22.4
3.5
21.9
25.4
11.5
18.7
30.2
11.6
17.3
28.9
ALL
AG
NAG
ALL
13.2
86.8
100.0
12.5
87.5
100.0
9.3
90.7
100.0
9.7
90.3
100.0
26.6
73.4
100.0
23.2
76.8
100.0
Workers Population Ratio (%)
34.4
34.0
50.8
50.9
16.6
15.1
Table 2.7 presents the percentage of those who were working in terms of their principal activity among the youth classified as usual status workers, again for the last two surveys. The share of workers reporting work as their principal activity had risen among young rural males, had remained unchanged among young urban males as well as females, and had fallen among young rural females. The evidence does not give any clear indication of an all-round fall in the percentage of subsidiary status workers.
Table 2.7
India: Percentage of young workers reporting work as principal activity
1987-88 and 1993-94
Rural India
Urban India
F
M
F
P
M
F
15-19
1987-88
1993-94
83.6
84.4
88.3
90.3
75.4
72.5
88.0
90.8
95.3
94.9
75.9
75.8
20-24
1987-88
1993-94
87.2
86.3
91.0
96.0
75.3
69.6
91.3
92.7
95.7
97.0
75.1
76.1
(c) Number of Young People in the Labour Force, 1991-2007
To estimate the number of youth joining the labour force during the 1990s, one can average the participation rates for 1987-88 and 1993-94 reported in Table 2.4 for rural and urban youth and combine them according to the rural-urban distribution of the population of youth. Using these data, along with an age distribution of the population enumerated by the 1991 Census, corrected for the estimated net undercount, one obtains a LFPR for the youth (in terms of the usual status) of the order of 53.2 percent. This LFPR might decline a little because of the process of urbanisation as well as a further rise in the proportion of youth continuing school or college education.
According to our labour force projection, the number of youth in the labour force (in terms of usual status) is estimated to grow from 85 million in 1991 to 93 million in 1997, 105 million in 2002 and 117 million in 2007. The LFPR for the youth is projected to decline to 50.5 percent by 2007, but the proportion of the youth in the population is expected to rise to 20.8 percent. An adjustment for the net undercount in the 1991 Census will raise these numbers by about 2 percent. The average annual increase in the youth labour force has been of the order of 1.3 million during 1991-97 but it will almost double to 2.4 million during 1997-2007. The rural-urban break-up of the projected population and therefore also of the labour force is not available yet; however, a fair proportion of them would probably join or start working in their family enterprises.
For projecting the number of unemployed among the youth of India, we need to examine the data on the incidence of unemployment reported by the recent surveys.
(d) Incidence of Unemployment among Young People
Table 2.8 shows the incidence of unemployment among young people as well as the population aged 15 and over, by gender and rural-urban residence, for 1987-88 and 1993-94. The estimates based on the three concepts are also shown in Figures 1 to 3. The data confirm the much higher rates of unemployment among the youth, particularly in urban areas, although the rates seem to have declined a little during the last inter-survey period among rural as well as urban teenagers according to all the three concepts. Among the young adults aged 20-24, the rates for rural males have risen a little in terms of daily status, but not the rates for rural females; rates for urban males have also declined although those for females (which were higher than for teenage urban girls) had in fact risen.
Table 2.8
Incidence of unemployment (percent) among young people aged 15-24
and population aged 15 and above
by gender and rural-urban residence according to alternative concepts
1987-88 and 1993-94
