TMFDI/1998 - Part 3

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Technology and employment in the food and drink industries

Report for discussion at the, Technology and Employment in the Food and Drink Industries

Part 3

3. Impacts of new technology
on employment

Over the past 200 years millions of jobs have been replaced by machines. However, in industrialized countries primarily, there has also been a continuous increase in job numbers and in real incomes, not in spite of technological change, but because of it. New technology may reduce the number of existing jobs, but many studies show that it creates new demand, "either by increasing productivity and hence real incomes, or by creating new goods".⁽¹⁾

Technological change is double-edged; it both destroys jobs and creates new ones. Economists have generally argued that in the long run new technology creates more jobs than it eliminates. However, compensation may not be automatic, painless or instantaneous; there may be lags between the time when jobs are replaced by machines and the time when new ones are created. Those who have been made redundant may not be qualified for the new jobs that are be created. Furthermore, new jobs may be created in locations to which it may not be practical for many people to move for various reasons.⁽²⁾ This section will examine employment trends in the FD industries in general as well as in some specific cases against the backdrop of the rapid technological developments seen in recent years. It will also look into how new technology may have influenced both forms of employment and skill requirements.

Employment trends

Tables 3.1 and 3.2 present employment figures in the food and drink industries respectively for selected countries and territories for the period 1985-95. Although the data are incomplete, the tables show that employment has declined gradually in many high-income and upper middle-income countries in both the food and drink industries, while it has increased in many low-income and lower middle-income countries. Since high-income and upper middle-income countries are likely to have adopted more labour-saving technology than lower-income ones, their employment decline may have been largely due to this factor. However, other factors, such as the greater maturity of FD industries in high-income countries, were also at work. That the decline was not entirely determined by new technology is shown by the example of the United States where the food industry workforce grew continuously until 1993.

The rate of decline in the drink industry appears to have been greater than that in the food industry, particularly among high-income countries. As the drink industry lends itself more easily than the food industry to the substitution of capital for labour, this factor is likely to have been responsible for the higher decline in employment seen in this industry.

Tables 3.3 and 3.4 present employment in the food and drink industries respectively as a percentage of employment in total manufacturing in selected countries and territories for the period 1985-95. Table 3.3 indicates that the proportion of the food-processing workforce within total manufacturing has been growing in many industrialized and upper middle-income countries. This suggests that the substitution of capital for labour has proceeded more rapidly in other manufacturing sectors than in the food industry, thus the employment decline has been greater in the former.

On the other hand, in many lower-income countries the percentage of food workers in total manufacturing has declined despite the fact that the absolute number of workers has increased (table 3.1). These countries are now experiencing relatively rapid economic growth, and other manufacturing sectors are experiencing faster employment growth than the food industry.

Table 3.1. Employment in food products (ISIC 311), 1985-95


Country/territory	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995

High-income non-OECD
Cyprus	4 686	4 873	5 063	5 404	5 686	5 880	5 833	5 988	5 945	6 392	6 546
Hong Kong	18 500	18 900	19 300	19 600	18 700	21 000	21 300	20 800	20 400
Israel	41 700	43 640	48 500	48 600	44 600	42 000	43 600	43 300	45 300	48 941
Kuwait	6 280	6 485	6 875	7 214	7 075	7 727	4 791	5 953	6 744	6 759	6 699
Singapore	9 686	9 622	10 181	10 400	10 391	10 615	11 104	11 565	11 874	11 800	11 855
High-income OECD
Australia	143 700	144 000	145 000	151 000	153 000	150 000	148 000	146 000
Austria	53 200	51 800	51 800	51 600	51 200	52 800	51 000	51 000	49 955	49 018	49 029
Belgium	74 000	73 300	73 100	74 500	75 800	75 800	76 100	75 300
Canada	190 300	195 100	197 000	201 000	201 900	197 800	192 000	195 000	189 000	189 000	189 213
Denmark	66 343	67 697	66 892	64 500	63 100	87 371	85 561	83 181
Finland	51 162	50 468	50 214	49 500	47 300	46 600	44 700	41 400	38 500	36 200	35 667
France	461 400	462 400	463 100	463 100	463 700	462 500	459 100	454 100	449 500
Germany							511 000		448 787	442 445
Germany (former FRG)	335 201	334 928	337 588	339 207	354 077	376 275	403 089	401 500
Iceland	13 399	13 773	14 270	12 528	11 921	11 200	10 891	9 982	9 982	10 399
Ireland	38 900	38 000	37 312	37 300	36 600	36 700	37 500	36 227	35 534	34 581	33 266
Italy	155 000	145 000	149 000	163 102	157 503	162 655	164 443	162 966	162 966
Japan	1 030 000	1 066 000	1 077 000	1 095 000	1 101 000	1 138 000	1 153 000	1 165 000	1 185 000	1 147 000	1 145 000
Luxembourg	2 203	2 248	2 283	2 272	2 440	2 472	2 722	2 799	2 974	2 868
Netherlands	113 000	113 000	116 103	106 303	106 532	107 759	110 073	109 732	107 699	107 000	108 243
New Zealand	67 124	66 740	60 200	59 890	59 637	56 464	56 044	57 604	58 971
Norway	47 233	47 610	47 500	46 000	44 800	43 906	43 580	39 967	40 063	40 986	41 163
Spain	228 285	226 140	232 811	252 494	255 368	258 596	264 061	264 038	264 509	266 353	265 439
Sweden	62 200	63 200	62 800	63 300	63 700	61 500	62 861	58 908	56 205	54 493
Switzerland		71 600	72 000	72 800	73 700	75 100	74 300	70 800	69 100	70 700
United Kingdom	487 000	487 000	499 000	498 000	504 000	503 000	490 000	482 000	479 480	477 000	474 560
United States	1 249 000	1 248 000	1 300 000	1 314 000	1 315 000	1 333 000	1 339 000	1 369 000	1 385 000	1 383 000	1 382 520
Low-income
Bangladesh	45 700	46 055	48 498	51 132	125 943	110 686	104 187	106 167
Burundi		631	1 068	1 068	1 068	1 411	1 620
Cambodia	12 807	12 061	11 780	10 828	8 700	8 810	11 208
Central African Republic	663	576	488	464	428	558	532	472
China	2 319 000	2 475 000	2 593 000	2 750 000	2 720 000	3 050 000	3 210 000	3 270 000	3 130 000	3 180 000
Egypt	148 216	151 236	173 692	175 656	188 933	204 200	243 000	193 000	210 242	216 391
Ghana	7 295	7 606	12 264						7 418	7 627
Honduras	16 626	17 478	18 596	18 827	18 949	19 289	22 552	24 711	27 071	29 661
India	978 629	956 086	1 024 727	1 021 334	1 111 243	1 122 305	1 124 366	1 240 185	1 229 339
Indonesia	300 200	306 100	325 700	356 600	358 700	392 875	438 564	466 709	512 741	496 479	586 167
Kenya	41 897	45 023	46 063	49 177	49 765	51 511	53 561	53 757	55 429
Mozambique		24 320	54 740	60 340	39 230	30 693	27 409	21 496	20 780	18 598
Nepal		24 050	16 432	15 204	17 385	17 038	21 258		26 151
Nigeria	50 000				3 025	3 131
Pakistan	64 300	65 600	68 784	67 239	75 500	83 885	76 371	79 880
Sri Lanka	41 379	45 923	40 629	33 583	42 982	46 674	40 303	47 238	41 063
Yemen				9 453	10 017	10 087	11 235	12 118	12 407	11 760
Zimbabwe	27 400	28 131	27 637	28 337	28 111	25 302	27 132	26 560	24 700	25 482	26 841
Middle-income (lower)
Algeria	50 253	60 704	59 188	59 936	55 724	61 379	68 290	60 477	61 641	61 501
Armenia		25 051	26 119	24 920	22 630	22 001	20 971	26 477	22 262	22 303
Azerbaijan						37 347	38 608	38 773	37 755	37 138
Bolivia	6 107	5 697	5 647	6 248	6 458	6 133	6 601	7 217	6 895	7 065
Bulgaria	106 600	109 100	107 300	110 500	111 100	105 700	87 100	73 600	55 600	59 700
Cameroon					16 972	14 618	16 658	14 318	15 565	12 969
Chile	44 644	52 654	58 556	64 964	71 899	75 279	80 636	84 603	83 365	97 256	103 403
Colombia	67 394	69 078	72 994	74 301	76 590	79 300	81 191	102 999	104 962	103 985	105 446
Costa Rica	28 605	28 933	29 683	30 726	30 208	31 040	30 691	33 770	34 882
Cuba	237 100	234 600	235 000	240 500	247 500
Czechoslovakia (former)	176 000	177 000	177 000	177 000	176 000	168 000	143 000
Ecuador	23 210	24 050	27 708	27 340	28 197	27 131	32 752	36 626	36 358	36 844
Fiji	6 172	6 346	7 489	7 504	7 087	6 454	4 817	4 913	4 889	5 124
Iran, Islamic Republic of	68 801	72 963	85 450	71 100	77 800	67 600	71 087	72 661	71 769
Jamaica		18 219	17 906	19 088	22 676	25 006	24 980	25 204
Jordan	5 643	6 001	6 173	6 418	7 435	7 819	9 118	10 296	10 610	13 206
Kyrgyzstan			29 338	29 226	27 573	27 635	27 250	25 678	24 597	21 417
Latvia		40 360	40 908	40 439	38 559	36 492	35 119	50 478	36 335	31 506
Malaysia	61 400	63 600	67 500	70 100	72 400	73 300	78 500	77 600	81 100	84 263	86 920
Mauritius	9 517	9 871	11 098	11 099	11 088	11 421	11 433	11 225	12 475
Moldova, Republic of		63 223	63 470	61 231	58 518	58 986	58 197	67 009	52 157	48 636
Mongolia	15 700	16 200	17 600	14 000	15 200	11 975	11 882	9 249	9 701	13 620
Morocco	22 182	24 302	20 597	27 350	26 892	20 617	27 350	26 980	28 438	29 316
Panama	12 485	12 436	12 388	11 633	12 824	12 980	13 574	14 661	15 585	17 286	19 431
Peru	40 151	41 814	42 164	45 005	43 607	43 263	42 557	43 219
Philippines	125 800	120 800	131 100	156 600	164 300	266 500	256 500	158 600	159 491	162 627	164 286
Poland	382 000	386 000	383 000	387 000	377 000	366 000	360 000	349 000	325 000
Romania	132 000	126 000	119 000	119 000	127 000	259 300	255 700	243 100	255 200	243 900
Senegal	15 000	15 000	15 000	14 000	21 094	18 311	19 045	14 072	13 557	15 505
Slovenia			19 610	19 379	24 650	23 600	24 062	22 490	21 050	22 383
Syrian Arab Republic	30 384	31 128	31 337	31 200	32 700	32 800	34 300	34 300	33 000
Thailand		109 362		234 624	256 927	204 396	219 269
Tonga	350	418	558	473	290	259	287	447	392	376
Turkey	117 631	124 634	127 053	127 654	133 487	129 451	124 498	124 421	121 001	121 508
Middle-income (upper)
Argentina	251 378	230 341	227 692	221 704	196 984	197 220			190 215	198 670
Barbados	1 642	2 260	2 198	1 922	1 807	1 596	1 193	1 120	1 419	1 431	1 446
Botswana	3 200	4 200	3 100	3 500	4 800	5 200	5 200	4 900	5 100	5 200
Brazil	733 199					550 886		548 358
Greece	48 440	47 400	48 780	49 110	50 933	49 618	47 861	48 925	48 845	48 765	48 925
Hungary	170 000	170 000	176 000	173 000	173 000	169 000	164 000	159 000	134 000	135 030	136 040
Korea, Republic of	153 900	166 600	174 200	181 100	174 700	177 700	176 532	173 729	175 217	177 444	177 895
Malta	1 845	2 069	2 211	2 285	2 772	2 327	2 330	2 345	2 286
Mexico	97 190	97 960	95 380	92 880	96 340	96 980	97 113	97 540	92 029	89 194	90 055
Oman	228	288	344	81	110	60	467	193	800	370
Portugal	67 567	67 800	65 300	62 741	62 544	46 336	46 873	45 544	42 684	41 436	40 749
Puerto Rico	19 140	19 220	20 630	20 600	21 040	16 420	13 350	14 420	14 130	13 880
Russian Federation									1 533 300	1 475 200
Slovakia							46 460	41 956	40 937	40 238
South Africa	185 000	182 000	189 000	193 000	195 000	199 000	194 000	194 000	195 000	176 000	176 000
Suriname	3 330	3 177	3 574	2 927	2 873	2 740	2 782	2 689	2 451
Trinidad and Tobago	6 800	6 600	6 100	6 100	14 034	12 775	12 851	13 258	14 700
USSR (former)	2 760 000	2 780 000	2 801 000	2 783 000	2 765 000	2 753 000
Uruguay	36 034	36 280	35 228	35 500	48 717	47 883	46 454	42 867	39 397	39 560	39 599
Venezuela	72 700	74 700	83 400	85 100	81 900	82 300	88 300	89 000	82 742
Yugoslavia										93 300
Yugoslavia (former)	214 000	221 000	225 000	228 000	223 000
Others
Croatia		50 580	50 964	51 367	51 373	56 380	52 570	48 310	45 420	45 470
Czech Republic			122 000	122 000	121 000	116 000	99 000	94 000	92 000
Taiwan, China	124 432	125 676	126 990	119 090	115 383	116 333	115 800	118 477	119 503	117 315	115 616
Ukraine				684 000	681 000	683 000	653 000	618 000	606 000	586 000
Source: UNIDO: Industrial Statistics, 1997.

Table 3.2. Employment in beverages (ISIC 313), 1985-95


Country/territory	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995

High-income non-OECD
Bermuda						104	108	108	105	129
Cyprus	1 774	1 762	1 799	1 927	2 036	1 905	1 938	1 989	2 039	2 027	2 006
Germany (former GDR)	46 700	46 900	47 200	48 000	48 000
Hong Kong	4 800	4 700	4 700	4 800	4 900	5 000	4 500	4 100	4 100
Israel	2 500	2 703	3 100	3 400	3 100	3 300	4 200	4 000	4 500	4 699
Kuwait	1 835	1 893	1 893	2 012	2 230	1 812	290	1 761	2 204	1 503	1 489
Qatar		262	317	306		338	419	370	368	425
Singapore	2 273	2 264	2 258	2 330	2 406	2 439	2 440	2 306	2 190	2 156	2 156
High-income OECD
Australia	18 000	18 000	18 000	18 000	18 000	18 000	18 000	17 000
Austria	13 000	13 100	13 000	12 800	12 400	12 700	13 000	13 000	12 345	11 947	11 902
Belgium	14 700	14 100	13 700	13 300	13 100	12 800	12 600	12 300
Canada	31 000	31 000	31 200	31 000	27 000	24 000	22 000	27 000	27 000	26 000	26 000
Denmark	9 822	9 112	8 672	8 100	7 100	7 015	6 932	6 832
Finland	5 000	5 100	4 900	4 800	4 800	5 500	5 400	4 900	4 200	4 200	4 150
France	49 300	47 500	45 200	43 500	44 000	43 800	43 000	42 500	42 000
Germany							112 000		96 761	89 430
Germany (former FRG)	91 555	89 558	87 674	85 713	84 614	86 510	90 041	89 212
Iceland	358	343	356	311	334	333	325	334	294	306
Ireland	6 000	5 700	5 380	5 200	5 100	4 700	5 300	5 348	5 300	4 942	4 743
Italy	43 000	43 000	44 000	26 504	25 883	25 238	24 093	24 179	24 266
Japan	75 000	73 000	73 000	73 000	72 000	74 000	72 000	71 000	73 000	70 720	68 200
Luxembourg	908	903	904	889	904	906	943	955	954	919
Netherlands	12 000	12 000	11 937	11 563	11 384	11 229	11 611	11 403	11 217	10 897	10 897
New Zealand	3 675	3 650	3 200	3 020	3 039	2 960	1 897	3 116
Norway	4 291	4 362	4 700	4 600	4 600	4 367	4 389	4 836	4 782	4 954	5 040
Spain	54 488	55 373	54 872	50 764	52 574	52 464	47 176	45 508	45 619	46 053	45 838
Sweden	4 400	4 600	5 000	5 100	5 000	4 800	4 827	4 575	4 348	4 141
United Kingdom	73 000	74 000	70 000	72 000	73 000	69 000	69 000	65 000	62 870	60 840	52 930
United States	171 000	16 000	152 000	151 000	143 000	137 000	137 000	134 000	136 000	128 000	127 200
Low-income
Bangladesh	630	636	645	751	863	1 024	845	1 715
Burundi		872	898	835	776	722	654
Cambodia	2 639	2 748	2 736	2 593	2 410	2 246	2 402
Central African Republic	331	287	244	232	214	278	265	235
China	582 000	613 000	643 000	677 000	669 000	1 100 000	1 160 000	1 180 000	1 130 000	1 170 000
Egypt	21 081	18 497	21 568	22 102	19 345	18 300	12 100	21 300	21 300	21 135
Ethiopia and Eritrea	7 859	8 261	8 746	8 863	9 149
Ghana	4 238	3 792	5 303						3 418	3 514
Honduras	4 099	6 416	6 788	6 911	7 064	4 265	4 181	4 336	4 750	5 205
India	46 793	46 380	50 340	52 137	51 612	55 996	56 789	59 112	68 116
Indonesia	11 300	11 700	11 700	13 000	12 300	12 550	16 491	16 738	21 127	22 168	23 723
Kenya	6 399	6 328	5 782	6 505	6 597	6 733	6 956	7 029	7 232
Madagascar	3 118	3 506	2 943	2 912
Malawi	1 876	1 773	1 304	1 257	1 812
Mozambique

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