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By Shizue Tomoda
An increase in production of any meat usually directly affects per capita consumption, unless population growth is much greater. Total global meat consumption in 1995, including poultry and mutton and lamb, was forecast at 203 million metric tons, of which the developing countries were expected to consume 104 million metric tons. The global per capita consumption was expected to be 35.3 kg and 23.3 kg in developing countries, 2 and 4 per cent higher, respectively, than in 1994. The major increase was expected in the Far East, Latin America and the Caribbean. The per capita consumption in industrialized countries in 1995 was forecast to remain around 77 kg.4
However, the data on beef consumption in some countries show a gradual shift away from beef towards poultry meat, particularly among health-conscious consumers in industrialized countries. In the United States, for example, the annual per capita consumption of beef declined from 74 pounds in 1986 to 65 pounds in 1989, while pork consumption increased slightly, from 42 to 44 pounds.5 The per capita consumption of total meat products in the European Union was 81 kg in 1992, though it ranged from 67 kg in the United Kingdom to 100 kg in Denmark.6
Meat consumption was lower in Eastern than Western Europe. In former Czechoslovakia, the per capita beef and veal consumption dropped from 23 kg for 1987-89 to 15 kg in 1992, and in Hungary it declined from 8 to 5 kg. The trend was similar in most countries, except for Bulgaria where it remained around 12.6 kg. Pork consumption also declined in most countries in this region.
A decline in per capita domestic consumption of beef has been compensated for in some countries by increased exports. As shown in table 1.1.3, the export of bovine meat by Australia and the United States climbed sharply in terms of value. In volume, US exports of fresh bovine meat increased from 225,000 to 437,000 metric tons between 1988 and 1992, while exports from Australia rose from 641,000 to 795,000 metric tons.7
Table 1.1.3. Ten principal exporters of bovine meat (millions of US$ ranked by 1992 values)
| Country | 1986 | 1988 | 1990 | 1992 | ||||
| World | 8 246. 5 | 11 346.3 | 13 458.5 | 17 425.7 | ||||
| Australia | 922. 1 | 1 487.3 | 1 810.9 | 3 596.9 | ||||
| United States | 605. 7 | 1 090.0 | 1 547.2 | 3 568.7 | ||||
| Netherlands | 956. 8 | 1 200.0 | 1 399.2 | 1 823.9 | ||||
| Germany | 1 185. 8 | 1 284.4 | 1 825.1 | 847.2 | ||||
| France | 821. 3 | 1 173.2 | 1 305.3 | 470.0 | ||||
| Ireland | 676. 0 | 863.2 | 861.9 | 449.9 | ||||
| New Zealand | 373. 6 | 630.2 | 640.5 | 406.8 | ||||
| Belgium-Luxemb ourg | 274. 4 | 430.0 | 599.9 | 360.2 | ||||
| United Kingdom | 328. 7 | 436.5 | 409.1 | 360.0 | ||||
| Denmark | 339. 9 | 430.9 | 417.9 | 357.2 | ||||
| Source: United Nations: UNCTAD Commodity Yearbook, Geneva, 1994. | ||||||||
The world's total import of bovine meat increased from US$8.7 billion in 1986 to US$15.9 billion in 1992. Italy and Japan were the two major importers in 1992 -- US$2.2 billion and US$2.1 billion, respectively,8 which indicates that meat processing activities have become more important in meat-importing countries as well.
In addition to an economic downturn and health reasons, cattle diseases in certain parts of Europe have discouraged consumers from buying meat. The German Cattle Breeder's Federation estimated that beef consumption fell 10 per cent in 1994 because of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease. The federation predicted a further 5 per cent decline for 1995.9
In most Eastern European countries, however, consumption declined considerably. In Bulgaria, it fell from 14 kg per head for 1987-89 to 8.4 kg in 1992, and in Hungary it dropped from 27 kg to 21 kg. In Poland it increased from 8.6 kg to 9.7 kg.10 In spite of an 18 per cent decline in the industrial capacity in its abattoirs increased consumption in Poland was due to fluctuations in exports and imports of poultry products. Imports mainly from the United States climbed from 17,000 tons in 1991 to 40,000 tons in 1992, while exports declined from 18,000 to 13,000 tons. These changes were due to a rise in the domestic cost of cereals used as feed, as well as declined international competitiveness of the poultry industry in Poland.11
Table 1.1.5 shows the export of fresh poultry meat by region. Exports grew in all regions, the largest exporting region in 1993 being Europe. The growth rates in Africa and Oceania were impressive, though the total volumes were still small compared with the exports of other regions. Exports from Asia more than doubled, and imports by countries in the same region increased by 70 per cent.
Table 1.1.4. Poultry meat production in the world and in selected regions and countries
(in 1,000 metric tons)
| Region/country | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | ||||||||
| Region | |||||||||||||||
| World | 31 190 | 32 687 | 33 350 | 35 093 | 36 67
2 |
38 36
4 |
40 00
5 |
||||||||
| Developed countries | 20 011 | 20 577 | 20 995 | 21 626 | 21 76
6 |
21 97
3 |
22 17
0 |
||||||||
| Developing countries | 11 178 | 12 110 | 12 355 | 13 467 | 14 90
6 |
16 39
1 |
17 83
4 |
||||||||
| Asia and the Pacific | 5 507 | 6 150 | 6 394 | 6 882 | 7 63 1 | 8 55 6 | 9 272 | ||||||||
| European Union (12) | 4 812 | 4 960 | 4 901 | 4 943 | 5 03 1 | 5 16 3 | 5 186 | ||||||||
| Eastern Europe | 1 785 | 1 771 | 1 639 | 1 660 | 1 37 5 | 1 23 9 | 1 205 | ||||||||
| Latin America | 4 387 | 4 659 | 4 637 | 5 207 | 5 85 9 | 6 36 8 | 7 043 | ||||||||
| Near East and North
Africa |
1 891 | 1 960 | 1 956 | 1 950 | 1 88 5 | 2 14 5 | 2 320 | ||||||||
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 689 | 724 | 756 | 795 | 82 2 | 84 0 | 871 | ||||||||
| Country | |||||||||||||||
| Argentina | 380 | 1 | 340 | 1 | 300 | 1 | 336 | 37 9 | 50 0 | 1 | 590 | 1 | |||
| Australia | 355 | 1 | 362 | 368 | 385 | 39 3 | 42 1 | 435 | |||||||
| Brazil | 1 800 | 1 | 1 947 | 1 | 2 084 | 1 | 2 356 | 1 | 2 62 8 | 1 | 2 87 2 | 1 | 3 143 | 1 | |
| Canada | 561 | 567 | 565 | 599 | 60 1 | 60 1 | 601 | F | |||||||
| China | 1 849 | 2 270 | 2 346 | 2 643 | 3 16 0 | 3 65 4 | 4 078 | ||||||||
| France | 994 | 1 013 | 1 057 | 1 049 | 1 10 1 | 1 11 0 | 1 137 | ||||||||
| Germany | 455 | 1 | 456 | 1 | 430 | F | 416 | 34 3 | 36 1 | 409 | |||||
| India | 193 | F | 225 | F | 289 | F | 334 | F | 36 2 | F | 38 2 | F | 406 | F | |
| Indonesia | 379 | 1 | 403 | 437 | 473 | 52 0 | F | 52 8 | F | 545 | F | ||||
| Japan | 1 428 | 1 445 | 1 423 | 1 391 | 1 35 7 | 1 36 5 | 1 369 | ||||||||
| Kenya | 44 | F | 40 | F | 44 | F | 48 | F | 48 | F | 48 | F | 48 | F | |
| Mexico | 673 | 627 | 611 | 750 | 85 8 | 89 8 | 1 040 | ||||||||
| Spain | 775 | 1 | 807 | 1 | 808 | 1 | 807 | 1 | 80 8 | 1 | 83 5 | 1 | 809 | 1 | |
| Nigeria | 152 | F | 160 | F | 169 | F | 174 | F | 16 5 | F | 16 2 | F | 165 | F | |
| Egypt | 207 | 179 | 144 | F | 139 | F | 14 7 | F | 16 0 | 1 | 170 | 1 | |||
| Philippines | 198 | 194 | 208 | 229 | 27 3 | 1 | 29 1 | 1 | 309 | 1 | |||||
| South Africa | 350 | F | 360 | F | 370 | F | 380 | F | 39 0 | F | 37 0 | F | 380 | F | |
| Thailand | 464 | 1 | 498 | 1 | 538 | 1 | 575 | 1 | 63 0 | 1 | 68 0 | 1 | 685 | 1 | |
| United States | 7 250 | 7 513 | 8 055 | 8 597 | 9 11 7 | 9 71 9 | 10 21
4 |
||||||||
| United Kingdom | 808 | 863 | 770 | 790 | 83 7 | 84 6 | 838 | ||||||||
| 1 Unofficial figure. F _ FAO estimate.
Source: FAO: The state of food and agriculture, Rome, 1994. | |||||||||||||||
Notes:
4 FAO: Food Outlook, Rome, Aug./Sept. 1995.
5 Economic Commission for Europe (ECE), UN: Food processing machinery (Geneva, 1991).
6 European Union (EU): Panorama of EU Industry (Brussels, 1994).
7 UN: UNCTAD Commodity Yearbook (Geneva, 1994).
8 FAO: Trade Yearbook, 1990 and 1993, Vols. 44 and 47, Rome, 1991 and 1994.
9 Financial Times, 14 Feb., 1996.
10 UN: The livestock and meat market, Agricultural Review for Europe, No. 36, 1992 and Volume III, Geneva, 1994.
11 Alain Pouliquen: "La privatisation des industries agro-alimentaires en Pologne", in Le courrier des pays de l'Est, No. 385, Dec. 1993.