Agrarian transition in Viet Nam - Sectoral Activities

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SAP 2.74/WP.128

Agrarian transition in Viet Nam

Vali Jamal and Karel Jansen*

Introduction

I. "Doi moi" and macro impact

II. Agrarian reforms

III. Agrarian impact

IV. Incomes and poverty

V. Employment

VI. Conclusion

Appendice I: Accounting for agricultural growth

Appendice II: Poverty lines for Viet Nam: World Bank, this study, and Vietnamese sources

Appendice III: Food balance sheet for Viet Nam, 1995

References

Working papers are preliminary documents circulated informally in
a limited number of copies mainly to stimulate discussion and obtain comments

International Labour Office, Geneva
November 1998

* The authors wish to thank Cao Duy Dong for excellent research assistance in the preparation of this paper. Vali Jamal is Rural Sector Specialist in the Industrial Activities Branch of the ILO, Geneva. Karel Jansen is currently Associate Professor at the Institute of Social Studies in The Hague. The paper was written while he was Visiting Professor at the College of Economics, National University, Ho Chi Minh City.

Introduction

The Vietnamese economy has undergone vast changes in the last two decades, particularly since the implementation of the "doi moi" (renovation) reforms in 1986. Impromptu reforms centring on the agricultural sector had been carried out since a decade earlier, giving increasingly greater autonomy to individual households. "Doi moi" legalized these grass-roots reforms and took them several degrees further. This paper attempts to chronicle the reforms and the impact they have had on the performance of the Vietnamese economy. Particular attention is paid to agricultural incomes and employment.

The paper is organized as follows. Section I looks at "doi moi" reforms and their impact in terms of GDP, inflation, exports and government revenue. Section II looks at reforms as they related to the agricultural sector, while section III analyses the corresponding sectoral impacts in terms of changes in aggregate output and output mix. Section IV deals with changes in incomes and poverty. Existing estimates of poverty are discussed and new ones proposed. Section V looks at parallel changes in employment patterns and possible employment scenarios for the next few years. The continuing importance of the agricultural sector for employment generation is highlighted. Section VI contains the conclusions. The paper is accompanied by three appendices which give details of some of the more technical arguments on sources of agricultural growth, poverty lines and "food balance sheet".

Updated by BR. Approved by OdVR. Last update: 28 September 2000.