NEWSLETTER NO.9, NOVEMBER 1997: The fourth round of the ILO programme on global estimates and projections of the economically active population was completed in December 1996. It provides estimates and projections of activity rates by sex and five-year age groups (from 10 to 64 years and 65 years and over) for the period 1950-2010 at ten year intervals plus 1995, and estimates of the labour force by sex and major sectors of economic activity, i.e. agriculture, industry and services for the period 1950-90. Separate results are also presented for manufacturing for the years 1980 and 1990. The data cover all countries and territories of the world which had 200,000 inhabitants or more in 1990 (178 countries and territories), plus their aggregations into regions, major areas and the world, for a total of 207 geographical units.
Data on labour force are drawn from population censuses and especially from sample surveys of the economically active population. These data are adjusted, where necessary, to conform to a standard concept of economically active population which comprises all employed and unemployed persons and refer to the same age distribution, reference period and date of census/surveys. The definition of the economically active population corresponds, in principle, to that adopted by the Thirteenth International Conference of Labour Statisticians held in Geneva in 1982.
The projections of the activity rates are essentially based on trends in activity rates by sex and age group observed in the countries and territories over the entire reference period, i.e. 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990, or over part of the period, usually the last two decades.
The results concerning the activity rates by sex and age group show that during the last decades activity patterns around the world have undergone important changes, which are projected to continue in the future. Activity rates by age group are the ratio expressed in percent of the economically active population in a given age group to the total population in that age group.
The profile of women's activity rates is moving closer to that of men, although, female levels still remain, even in 2010, considerably lower than male ones. The activity rates of adult women (20-60 years) are increasing, while male activity rates (all age groups) are declining. Young men and women are postponing their entry in the labour market and older workers are retiring earlier. These changes are the result - at least in part - of the following factors: younger workers: declining activity rates due to remaining longer in the educational system and also due to young people being discouraged and not seeking work because they think no work is available for their skills; older workers: declining activity rates due to earlier access to retirement benefits and unemployment at the end of their career combined with insufficient education/training for jobs available which makes them cease seeking work (discouraged workers). Concerning older women, the lower participation rates observed are partly due to cohort effects, i.e. when these women were younger, they participated less than women in comparable age groups do at present and will do in the future ; adult women: increasing participation rates due to changes in the family pattern (decline of fertility, increase of single-parent families, increase of divorce), development of social infrastructure (child care, pre-school, elderly care), changes in the work organization (development of part-time work) and also due to improved statistics which capture better women's activities (modern surveys enquiring what they did during the reference period, instead of asking what is their profession or occupation). The evolution in female participation rates is reinforced by a generation effect: the older generations are progressively replaced by younger ones characterized by more important labour force participation; adult men: decreasing activity rates due to more workers being discouraged and also due to better statistics (modern surveys).
It is important to notice that the profile of women's activity rates by age group has changed and should be similar to that of men in 2010. The increases in female participation rates have caused the gradual disappearance of the bimodal shape characteristic of the female life cycle profile in the 1950's. This was the result of women leaving the work force around the age of 25 years to have children and a proportion returning later around 35 years. The moderate decline in male participation rates in all age groups is reflected in the relatively stable male life cycle profile.
The bimodal shape of activity rates by age group used to be current in the developed regions, but not in the developing regions where women who entered the work force had to stay for economic reasons
Concluding, in the next decades the global work force should be composed of a smaller proportion of both younger and older workers, a larger proportion of adult women and a slightly smaller proportion of adult men.