WPC[y D^eVn azlfcgx ƿ-θd@˳JQOY `woܣ4R_G ,doQKƮCl/h \QpZ-}/iT ?IRvl36ZȦj_DOӃsgbpc(TGpM׭|CY74"Om { n‰F."6Szr{ =-Ne\8x QkQｼeI{>4(iFFV.ix(Lεj<:b6 MyPr3ӈ`$ G-Z:okE "gz"_#ziJd?4k.Io(`DC>9nZUD" %0# 0@6#UJv% h% h- hT0 Z0 h`0 h49 1q:9 h9 hD=U:]= h= h= h= h= hk= h$D h>D hE hEEEEEE# mI 0!)xJxJ BKKK D3KKKKKKKKKKKKKw@K41LELELELELELELELELELELELELELUM.TLUHL 0LLLLL 0[M 0[AP 0[R 0 T 0 YWWWWWWWWWWe WWWWEWW 0WWWWWU(<YUPY 0Z=Zf[[[[[[[[[[[f[f[f[[[[[f[f[f[[[ 0[[[[[[[[[[f?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?]?] iA]A]A]A]A]A]A]A]A] 0o`]`]`]f^^^ 0x^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^fI_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_I_ 0^K_K_UH``````` 0d``Ui0Ua 0aafBbfDbfFbfHbHbfJbJbJbJbJbJbJbJbJbJbJbfLbLbLbNbNbNbNbNbcc,effh,;jagkM{ko-rasasasatata+ta?taStagta{tatatatatVt5vawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww 0dw<6X9`+,Courier 10cpiLegalX($UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)W\6&A4 (Portrait)6&A46&A4T  _XXXX_%-%X_X  $vvzX$(/O  Z 2CG Times (W1) RegularbMb0@b4@b8@b?b@b333333?b #b@bN@bN@bN@b@bF@bG@bG@b@b@@b@@b@@b@b~@b0}@b~@b@b?@b>@b>@b@b0@b?b?bb\@bPv@b8@b b x@b @b ?b  @b @b @b p@b b ?b ?b ?b b d@b ^@b b@b "@b *@b @\@b ,@b$@b,@b,@b*@b&@bp= ף?bRQ @bffffff@bb ףp= ?b?b(\@bb ףp= ?bQ@b= ףp= @b(@b)\Q@b\(|Q@bGzTQ@b?TABLE Ibmmmmmmmm@mE@mG@mm(@mL@m@Y@mm@@mD@m9@mm9@m(@m,@mmh@m@c@mg@mTABLE GmnHo\oooooRoo8@o@@o@ooA@o?o@oo2@oH@o?oo*@oU@o@oo7@o @o?oo2@opt@ou@o o \@o @o @o o G@o @o  @o o E@o ?o @o o Y@o @o ?o o ?@o ?o `j@oo[@o؎@oЈ@oo3@o@o @oo@d@o@o?oo?@o@o?oo2@oX@o>@ooL@o?oP@oo`@oЌ@o@oo6@oX@o@ooe@o@o@oo?o:@o;@oJ@oTABLE Aot"37=EMU]ek1.(a)(i)(1)(a)(i)1)a)u"uuRuuuuuuu`@Ru]@u?@u?ub@u)\h8@u@ut@Ru"@u @u1@uףp= @u@u@@RuU@ud@uo@u@I@uu?uk@ui@uPz@uQ8=@u?TABLE Auvv/ + AZ"Univers (W1) 8CCCC0@C5@C4@Cz@C@C4@C5@C4@C0@C@C4@C5@C5@C0@C@C4@C5@C5@C`}@C@C4@C5@C5@C@C@C4@C5@C5@C0|@C@C4@C5@C5@C@C@C4@C5@C4@C@C@C 8@C 4@C 3@C 0@C @C 8@C 4@C 3@C ?C @C 4@CTable_D $A4@p@4@pt@Q@4@pw@H@8@@c@TABLE D&B@zGF@0@?$@p= #)@d@RQ?@Q@0@ ףp=2@@ffffff@@?  &@ \(\+@  $@ Q?  @U@ Y@ 0TABLE HHP LaserJet 4/4MHPPCL5E    0 :mj8Table Title?XTXXX?LXXTf  // ?XTXXX?LXXTf    d 'dxd UDEQ E  t$풂$^ 3|x ,xA`Univers/ + AZ0Univers (W1) Regular<pp:Table Body SXX?ȓf XX?ȓf (32J)$ !UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)3'6&A43'T  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4  $vvzX$  (33J)$ !UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)3'6&A43'T  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4  $vvzX$  (33J)$ !UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)3'6&A43'T  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4  $vvzX$  (B,2$ !UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)3'6&A43'T  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4  $vvzX$  v    0  ($  0   N*;4Heading AA4 documents      %,%%_%jG_%%,f       %,%%_%jG_%%,f ),h  Z $CG Times (W1) "0 AZ8Univers Cd (W1) R)gulierzpp :Table body KStyle to cover condensed tables`XXXX`XX f`XXXX`XX f\~N4Body textBody text style for A4 1col documentv0vvi zvvz0   ` ////v  33_&&%_%C&&&_&   # N*nJ4Heading BA4 documents    %,%%_%j/%%,f   |   %,%%_%j/%%,f (P$ v 2  0  .3  N{'n{4Heading CA4 documents_%_%j{_  f   n^R^_%_%j{_  f / + AZ0Univers (W1) Regular(<d$2(  a  )3  0 v ) `CG Times($M$Tw$$ bvvz$ b2(   )3  0  $ bvvz$< \0  FJ)'UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$  ? X' dE?  GJ))UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$  A X) xdTEA.RTBH:\WPWIN\WP6WE\DEPTS\04012-1A.E98RH:\WPWIN\WP6WE\DEPTS\04012-1A.E98/  /v.3m!m!m!%"  12    HJ)*UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$  A X) xdEA  12  ???%".RTBH:\WPWIN\WP6WE\DEPTS\04012-1A.E98RH:\WPWIN\WP6WE\DEPTS\04012-1A.E98/  /v.3  I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    1    Basedonlabourforcesurveydata.Useofcensusandintercensalsurveydatawouldperhapsyielda  figureofapproximately6millionpeople.  I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    2    Thelabourforcesurveysyieldhigherfiguresoftotalworkforcecomparedtocensusandintercensal  Мdata,aswellashighergrowthratesinthe1990s. " I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    3    AccordingtodatafromLabourForceSurvey,1996.TABLE H C I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    4    Thefollowingstepsareinvolvedinthepresentprojectionexercise.Anoverallemploymentelasticity  (of0.2936)hasbeencalculatedfortheperiod198595usingtheGDPandemploymentgrowthratesfortheperiod.Thisfigureisthenusedtoprojectemploymentfor1997(usingtheprojectedGDPgrowthof5percentfortheyearandthe1996employmentfigurebasedonlabourforcesurveydata).Labourforcefor1997isprojectedbyapplyingtheannualgrowthrateof2.6percenttothe1996figureobtainedfromthelabourforce   survey.Projectionsoflabourforceandemploymentmadeintheabovemanneryieldanunemploymentfigureofapproximately5.5millionfor1997(or5.94percentofthelabourforce).Labourforcefor1998isprojectedbyapplyingthesamegrowthfigureof2.6percent.  I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    1    Thisfigureislowerthangovernmentestimates.Onereasonforthedifferenceisthattheassumption  of400,000joblossesper1percentreductioninGDPgrowthimpliesahigheremploymentelasticitythantheoneestimatedbyusfortheperiod198595.Thishigherelasticityisnotrealistic,however,becauseemploymentelasticityinIndonesiahasbeendeclininginrecentyears.Indeed,thefigurefor199095wouldbelowerthanthatfor198595. # I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    2    ThisfigureisbasedonLabourForceSurvey,1996.TABLE DTABLE DTable_DTABLE HTABLE FTABLE BTABLE ATABLE ATABLE GTABLE ITABLE ATABLE CTABLE ETABLE E L I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    1    BureauofStatisticsfiguresquotedinTheInternationalHeraldTribune,3Mar.1998.  I$UKUS.,  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4$vvzX$v    2    ThesefigureshavebeenarrivedatbyusingtheaveragepricesofmediumqualityricereportedinBank  Indonesia,WeeklyReport,No.2004,23Jan.1998.TABLE AN~*n4Heading DA4 documents_&3k&%_%j&;&&_&3k  f   q/#/_&3k&%_%j&;&&_&3k  f  !UKUS.,TRW\6&A4 (Portrait)3'6&A43'T  _X4XXX_%C%X_X4  $vvzX$  C "" C   yNv0vvi zvvz0   ` //v X 33_&&%_%C&&&_&   Z;      v&&&&W&&f 33    2. v ThesocialimpactZ;       vwW&&wf 33  J    &&&&Hf &&f 33    2.1.IntroductionJ k `/ `   j  Hf&& jf 33    Theunexpectedandmassivefinancialandeconomiccrisisdescribedinthepreviouschapter Z has,bynow,beentranslatedintoahighlevelofjoblossesandconsequentialsocialdistressinIndonesia,ThailandandtheRepublicofKorea.Theprecrisisperiodofhighgrowthhadalsomeanthighratesofemploymentgrowththatexceededratesoflabourforcegrowth,exceptinIndonesia.Thisensuredverylowratesofopenunemploymentandahighprobabilityfornewentrantstothelabourmarkettoobtainarelativelygoodjobbylocalstandards,aswellasforthoseinlowproductivityemploymenttomovetoabetterjobinthemodernsectoroftheeconomy.EventhoughtherewerestillsignificantlevelsofunderemploymentinThailandandIndonesia(whichstillhavelargenumbersworkingintheruralandurbaninformalsectors)thedynamicsofjobcreation,especiallytherapidgrowthinmodernsectorjobs,meantthatoverallemploymentprospectswereimprovingsteadilyintheprecrisisperiod.  Themajorsocialimpactoftheeconomiccrisisliesinthesuddenreversalofthissystemofsharingthebenefitsofeconomicgrowththroughsteadilyimprovingemploymentprospects.AsthefinancialcrisishittherealeconomyintheformofnearzeroornegativeGDPgrowththerehasbeen,andwillcontinuetobe,asharpdeteriorationoflabourmarketconditions.Firstly,therehavealreadybeensubstantialretrenchments,especiallyintheconstruction,financialservicesandmanufacturingsectors.Secondly,therehasbeenanabruptdeclineinnewhiring,whichwillsharplyreducetheemploymentprospectsofnewentrantstothelabourmarketandthereemploymentprospectsofdisplacedworkers.Thecombinedimpactofthesetwofactorsislikelytoleadtoatleastadoublingofopenunemploymentrates,evenafterallowingforthefactthatsomeproportionofdisplacedworkersandunsuccessfulaspirantstoamodernsectorjobwillsettleforinferioremploymentineithertheruralortheurbaninformalsector.However,aswillbeseeninthesubsequentcountryspecificanalyses,therearestronggroundsforbelievingthatthisadjustmentmechanismwillbeweakerthanithasbeeninthepast.Thirdly,thereislikelytobeasignificantriseinunderemployment,onboththehoursofworkandtheincomemeasure,undertheimpactofanincreasedinfluxofdisplacedworkersandunsuccessfulnewjobseekersintotheruralandurbaninformalsectors.Giventhesharpfallsindomesticdemandthathaveoccurredinthesecountriestheaggregateincomegeneratingpotentialoftheruralandurbaninformalsectorswillbequitelimited.Theincreasedinfluxofworkersseekingalivelihoodinthesesectorsishighlylikelytoimplyreducedaverageincomes.Fourthly,therealearningsofthoseremaininginemploymentwillfallunderthecombinedimpactofthedeclineinlabourdemandandincreasedinflationcausedbythesubstantialcurrencydevaluations.Finally,theincreaseinopenunemployment,togetherwiththefallinrealearnings,islikelytoswelltheranksofthosewithincomesbelowthepovertylevel.  Adversedevelopmentsofthismagnitudeconstitute,inthemselves,asubstantialshocktoanysocialsystem.Buttheireffectsareamplifiedinthethreeseverelyaffectedcountriesbytwoadditionalfeaturesoftheireconomicsystems.Thefirstistheabsenceofameaningfulsocialsafetynet.Ofthethreecountries,onlytheRepublicofKoreahasanunemploymentinsurancesystem,butitisofrecentoriginandstilloflimitedcoverageandduration.Systemsofsocialassistancearealsorudimentaryandarelimitedtothosewhoareincapableofwork.Thevastmajorityofdisplacedworkerswillthushavetofendforthemselvesduringthecrisis.Thesecondfeatureliesinthefactthatsocialexpectationsinthesecountrieshavebeenshapedbyalongperiodofincreasingemploymentopportunitiesandthismakesthecurrentshockinthelabourmarketalltheruder.Indeedthiscombinationofsharpandunexpectedsocialpainontheonehand,andthelackofcollectivelyprovidedreliefontheother,isfertilegroundforbreedingsocialunrest.  Intherestofthischapterthesocialimpactoftheeconomiccrisiswillbeexaminedineachofthethreeseverelyaffectedcountries.Apartformtheeffectsonemployment,incomesand 0>,1 povertyinthesecountries,therewillalsobeadiscussiononhowthecrisishasaffectedmorevulnerablegroupssuchaswomenandmigrantworkers.J    &&&&Hf &&f 33    2.2.RetrenchmentsandunemploymentJv  r r   j  Hf&& jf 33  {l &&@  l  f 33    Indonesia{  ^m  l m  @&& @&&&@&  f 33    GDPgrowthinIndonesiawas7.6percentperannumduringtheperiodfrom1990to1996. V  Ontheemploymentfront,however,theperformanceduringtheprecrisisperiodhadbeenlessimpressive.Whiletherehadbeenasignificantshiftinthesectoralcompositionofemployment(table2.1),thegrowthofemploymenthadlaggedbehindthatofthelabourforceduringtheperiod198595.Approximately4.4millionpeople(ornearly5percentofthelabourforce)werealreadylookingforjobsin1996. J66  1      ׀Annualadditiontothelabourforceisintherangeof2.2to   2.3million"dependingonthesourceofdata., Jdd  2      ׀Inaddition,some40percentofallworkers r  sufferfromunderemployment(definedasworkinglessthan35hoursperweek). J,,  3      ׀Theinformal L  sectorstillaccountsfornearlytwothirdsoftotalemployment.?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.1.Sectoralcompositionofemployment,19969!work/_0  ?&& f _     AT&&?Tf 33  *wddd Xdd Xdd Xv%"v%"w, ,3,%+  .  N G.Sector ; *  ;Number ; *3  ;Percentage 9/%3 G   ^9Agriculture   37720251 8.  zGF@44.01zGF@844.01 F<2 zGF@44.01 ^ zGF@ GFMiningandquarrying   774211 7-  ?0.90?70.90 E;1 ?0.90 G ? GEManufacturing  . 10773038 8. . p= #)@12.57p= #)@812.57 F<2. p= #)@12.57 G p= #)@ GFElectricity,gasandwater  A 164142 7- A RQ?0.19RQ?70.19 E;1A RQ?0.19 G RQ? GEConstruction  T  3796228 7- T! Q@4.43Q@74.43 E;1T" Q@4.43 G Q@ GETrade,hotelandrestaurants   g# 16102552 8.  g$  ףp=2@18.79 ףp=2@818.79 F<2 g%  ףp=2@18.79 G  ףp=2@ GFTransportandcommunications  z& 3942799 7- z' ffffff@4.60ffffff@74.60 E;1z( ffffff@4.60 G ffffff@ GEFinance,insurance,realestateandbusiness  0) 689733 7- 0* ?0.80?70.80 E;10+ ?0.80 G ? GEPublicservices  C, 11728495 8. C- \(\+@13.68\(\+@813.68 F<2C. \(\+@13.68 G \(\+@ GFOthers  V/ 10364 7- V0 Q?0.03Q?70.03 E;1V1 Q?0.03 G Q? GETotal  i 2 85701813 9/ i 3 Y@100.00Y@9100.00 [ J3i 4 Y@100.00 G Y@ G[Source:CentralBureauofStatistics(BPS):StatisticalYearbookofIndonesia(1996).8.,|!5 G   8A"?&&?&&&?&f 33    ThefinancialcrisishittheIndonesianeconomyatatimewhenitwasalreadyfacingdwindlingexports,aslowdowninoverallgrowth,andasharpdropinriceproductionleadingtoimportsofriceandprospectsofasubstantialincreaseinfoodprices.  OnewayinwhichtheimpactofthecrisisonunemploymentcanbegaugedistoapplyrecentemploymentelasticitiestoprojectedGDPin1998and1999. J::  4      ׀Twoalternativeassumptionsabout &+": GDPgrowthfor1998"zerogrowthanda5percentcontraction"wereused.WithzerogrowthofGDP,theprojectedlevelofunemploymentfor1998isnearly7.9million J  1      ׀or8.3per } centoflabourforce.A5percentcontractionofGDPyieldsanunemploymentfigureofnearly9.2million(9.7percentoflabourforce)whichismorethandoublethelevelprevailingin1996.Theprojectedunemploymentratefor1998thusrangesbetween8and10percentdependingontheGDPgrowthassumedfortheyear,comparedwithabout5percentin1996.  Itshouldbenotedthat,giventhedoubtfulqualityofthedataandthecontinuingeconomicuncertainty,forecastssuchastheabovecangivenomorethananindicationofthebroadordersofmagnitudeonwhichpoliciesneedtobebased.Anotherfactorthatwillbeanimportantinfluenceonhowratesofopenunemploymentevolveistheproportionofthepotentiallyunemployedthatwillbeabsorbedintheruralandinformalsectorsoftheeconomy.Asiswellknown,inacountrylikeIndonesiawhereasizeablesegmentofthepopulationisstillpoorandthereisnounemploymentbenefit,peoplecannotaffordtoremainopenlyunemployedforlong.Indeed,therateofunderemployment,definedastheproportionoftheworkforceworkinglessthan35hoursperweek,was41.47percentin1996. J  2           OneviewisthatagricultureinIndonesiahasundergonesuchatransformationandhasbeencommercializedtosuchanextentthatitscapacitytoabsorbadditionallabourhasbeengreatlyreduced.Thisviewalsoholdsthatmanyofthoseworkinginmanufacturing,constructionandothersectorsinurbanandsemiurbanareasarenolongerrecentmigrantsfromthecountrysideandhavelostthenecessarylinkstoruralareastoenablethemtoreturnandbereabsorbedthere.  Whileitistruethatwiththeadventofthe greenrevolutionmanyofthetraditionalinstitutionsofworksharinghavedeclinedinimportance,purewageemploymentstillaccountsforonly13percentoftotalemploymentinagriculture(seetable2.2).Thiscontinuingimportanceoffamilybasedformsofemploymentsuggeststhatthereisstillconsiderablescopeforabsorbingnewentrants,especiallyfamilymembers.Thiswill,however,beatthecostofreducedlabourproductivityandreturnspercapita.?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.2.Employmentstatusinselectedsectors,1996:work/x  ?&& f      AT&&?Tf 33  *wd d 3%v%"v%"w, ,%,%,%+  2 !  G2@?Status P ?0:  PPercentageoftotalemployment @6(: G   G@ (   (Agriculture ; *93  ;Trade,hoteland 9  restaurants ; *k!3  ;Transportand 9" communications 9/%k#3 G   ^9Selfemployed A7  $ 0@16.500@A16.50 mc5 %3 0@16.50 0@ 33333D@41.4033333D@m41.40 mc5 &3 33333D@41.40 33333D@ QG@47.09QG@m47.09 OE; '3 QG@47.09 ^ QG@ GOSelfemployedwithassistancefromfamilymemberortemporaryemployee A7 5") @C@38.50@C@A38.50 mc5!*3 @C@38.50 @C@ Hz:@26.78Hz:@m26.78 lb5!+3 Hz:@26.78 Hz:@ Gz@7.17Gz@l7.17 ND:!,3 Gz@7.17 G Gz@ GNEmployer @6 H#- zG?0.84zG?@0.84 ka4H#.3 zG?0.84 zG? (\?1.91(\?k1.91 ka4H#/3 (\?1.91 (\? p= ף @3.33p= ף @k3.33 ND:H#03 p= ף @3.33 G p= ף @ GNEmployee A7 [$1 333333*@13.10333333*@A13.10 mc5[$23 333333*@13.10 333333*@ \(.@15.43\(.@m15.43 mc5[$33 \(.@15.43 \(.@ QD@41.69QD@m41.69 OE;[$43 QD@41.69 G QD@ GOUnpaidworker A7 n% 5 )\(?@31.16)\(?@A31.16 mc5n% 63 )\(?@31.16 )\(?@ q= ף,@14.47q= ף,@m14.47 lb5n% 73 q= ף,@14.47 q= ף,@ Q?0.71Q?l0.71 b Q:n% 83 Q?0.71 G Q? GbSource:CalculatedfromthelabourforcesurveydatainStatisticalYearbookofIndonesia,op.cit.8.,&!9 G    8AX< @&&@&&&@&f 33   ;'"9   Similarly,thecorrespondingfiguresonemploymentstatusinthetradeandtransportsectorsindicatethatmuchoftheemploymentinthesetwosectorsisalsooftheinformaltype.Oneshouldnot,therefore,besurprisedifopenunemploymentdoesnotactuallygrowatthealarmingratesindicatedbytheforecastsmadeintheearliersection.Amorelikelyoutcomeissubstantiallyhigherratesofunderemploymentanddecliningaverageincomesinsectorssuchasagriculture,trade,transportandotherlargelyinformalactivities.{l &&@  l  f 33    RepublicofKorea{WK16.5 K^M  L M  @&& @&&&@&  f 33    IntheRepublicofKorea,reliableandcomprehensivedataonlayoffswerenotavailable 6  untilFebruary1998,whenthenewlyadoptedregulationsonlayoffsobligedemployerstoreportmasslayoffstothelabourmarketauthorities.TheMinistryofLabourhasestimatedthatinthefirsttwomonthsof1998,70firmsresortedtomasslayoffsaffecting7,500workers.Thisfigurecanbecomparedtothetotalof77firmslayingoff10,500workersoverthewholeof1997.Thesefigures,ofcourse,donotcoverunreportedlayoffs.  However,themonthlynetincreaseinthenumberofjoblosersamongtheunemployed(recordedintheLabourForceSurvey)canbetakenasaproxyfortrendsinjoblossesoverthepastfewmonths.Thisisbasedontheassumptionthattheshareofjoblosersamongtheunemployed,forwhichdatawereavailableonlyforthelastquarterof1997,didnotchangesignificantlyovertheperiodexamined.  Table2.3suggeststhattheeconomyexperiencedonlymoderatenetjoblossesoverthelasttwomonthsof1997.Thisisconfirmedbyemploymentdata:thetotalnumberofemployedpersonsinDecember1997wasonly43,000less(0.2percent)thanayearearlier.Ontheother  hand,totalemploymentdeclinedbysome620,000jobs(3percent)betweenOctoberand x December1997,mainlyintheseasonallysensitiveagriculturalsectorand,toasmallerextent,theconstructionsector.Employmentinthemanufacturingandservicessectorsremainedessentiallyunchanged.?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.3.Numberofjoblosersamongtheunemployed S /?m  ?&& f ?     AT&&?Tf 33  *)dd %%%v%"v%",t , #,> #+  .  . G. ; *u  ;Numberofjoblosers ; *u3  ;Netincrease 9/%u3 G   G9October1997  t  257000  t!  #t" G G#November1997   # 327000   $ 70000 # % G G#December1997  !& 375000  !' 48000 * !( G G*January1998 ) " )  )533000 ) " *  )158000," " + G    ,AT?&&?&&&?&f 33    FromJanuary1998,however,theeconomicrecessionhadacceleratedindividualjoblosses.Inadditiontojoblossesamongindividualworkers,thereisalsoevidenceofnetjobdestruction,withtotalemploymentinJanuary1998fallingby686,000jobs,or3.4percent,comparedtoJanuary1997.  UntilFebruary1998,mostofthelayoffsoccurredinconnectionwithenterprisebankruptcies.Thenumberofbankruptcies,whichvariedbetween1,100and1,500amonthinthefirst11monthsof1997,jumpedtoover3,000inDecemberandincreasedfurtherinJanuary1998.Atotalof6,530companies,mainlysmallandmediumsizedenterprises(SMEs),wentoutofbusinessinDecemberandJanuary,butdataarenotavailableonhowmanyworkerswereaffectedbythesebankruptcies.  From1987totheonsetofthecrisisunemploymenthadstayedbelow3percentthankstorapideconomicgrowth.In1995and1996,therewasnearfullemploymentand,infact,emerginglabourshortages.Withthefinancialcrises,unemploymenthasbeenrisingrapidly.Thenumberofjoblessrosefrom451,000(or2.3percent)inOctoberto658,000(or3.1percent)inDecember1997.InJanuary1998,unemploymentroseto934,000persons(or4.1percent),an 0,: increaseof41percentoverthemonth.InFebruarythenumberofunemployedworkersincreasedfurtherbymorethan300,000,reachingarecordlevelof1.24million,whiletheunemploymentrateroseto4.7percent(table2.4).?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.4.Employmenttrends(thousands)i_ent/a  ?&& f      AT&&?Tf 33  *w>d)dt #> #v%"v%"w,B,C,C,>C,C+  6 %   GC6 > - #C  C>Economically  # activepopulation(participationrate) > - A C3  C>Numberof  #  employees > -U  C3  C>Numberof  #  unemployed > -U  C3  C>Unemploymentrate  # (seasonaladjustment) lb%U C3 G   0@1996^C0@l1996 YOA WC 0@1996 0@ CY21188(62.0) 7- WC3 C720764 XN WC3 z@425Cz@X425 yo@ WC3 z@425 z@ @2.0C@y992.0 kaF WC @2.0 ^ @ GCkFirstquarter1997 7- jC C721112(61.1) 7- jC3 C720466 XN jC3 0@646C0@X646 XN@ jC3 0@646 0@ CX3.1(2.6) J@% jC3 G  GCJSecondquarter1997 7- } C C721868(63.1) 7- } C3 C721319 XN } C3 0@550C0@X550 XN@ } C3 0@550 0@ CX2.5(2.6) J@% } C3 G  GCJThirdquarter1997 7-3 C C721806(62.6) 7-3 C3 C721336 XN3 !C3 `}@470C`}@X470 XN@3 "C3 `}@470 `}@ CX2.2(2.4) J@%3 #C3 G  GCJFourthquarter1997 7-F $C C721632(61.9) 7-F %C3 C721071 XNF &C3 @561C@X561 XN@F 'C3 @561 @ CX2.6(2.8) E;%F (C3 G  GCEOctober1997 7-Y )C C721793(62.5) 7-Y *C3 C721341 XNY +C3 0|@451C0|@X451 XN@Y ,C3 0|@451 0|@ CX2.1(2.3) E;%Y -C3 G  GCENovember1997 7-l .C C721762(62.3) 7-l /C3 C721188 XNl 0C3 @574C@X574 XN@l 1C3 @574 @ CX2.6(2.9) J@%l 2C3 G  GCJDecember1997 7-3C C721340(61.0) 7-4C3 C720682 XN5C3 @658C@X658 XN@6C3 @658 @ CX3.1(3.1) J@%7C3 G  GCJJanuary1998 7-8C C720645(58.9) 7-9C3 C719711 XN:C3 0@934C0@X934 XN@;C3 0@934 0@ CX @ 4.5(4.1) E;%<C3 G  GCEFebruary1998 7-=C C720760(59.2) 7->C3 C719562 7-?C3 C71235 7-@C3 C75.9(4.7) P ?%AC3 G  GCPSource:NationalStatisticalOffice:Reportonthe1997EmploymentTrendsandMonthlyReportonIndustrial B Activities(1998).8.,ICC G   8A`and?&&?&&&?&f 33    Thegrowthofunemploymenthashitrecentschoolleaversandfirsttimejobseekershardest.Giventhelegalrestrictionsonlayoffs(untilmidFebruary1998),financialdifficultiesandcontractingdemandhavepromptedmanyemployerstointroducearecruitmentban.Asaresult,thenumberofunemployedschoolleavershasincreasedrapidly.Inthelastquarterof1997,theyouthunemploymentratewas7.4percentand11.8percentintheagegroups2024and1519,respectively(seetables2.5and2.6).Todate,middleagedandolderworkershavebeenlessadverselyaffectedbecauseoftheoldlabourlawthatrestrictedlayoffs.Theunemploymentrateamongmaleshas,sofar,beenhigherthanthatoffemales.However,asshownintable2.5,femaleunemploymentincreasedbyalargermarginthanmaleunemploymentbetween1996andthefourthquarterof1997.Thisismainlybecauseithasbeenmaledominatedindustriesandsectorsthathavebeenhithardestsofar.9vvi  ] vvi z9 33?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.5.0  Compositionoftheunemployed:Joblosersandfirsttimejobseekersbysex#P %" %" 0  0i %"%"0 i %"i %" (thousands)(percentagechangecomparedwiththesameperiodinthe I$Q previousyear) zent/+% $Y   ?&& f+% R %" %"      33zAT&&?Tf 33  *d  >dBCC>CCv%"v%",{ ,",",m","+  3 " %P!S G3 ] L:&!T"  0@19960@]1996 ] LA:&!U3 0@1996 0@  ]Fourthquarter1996 ] L:&!V3  4@19974@]1997 ] LA:&!W3 4@1997 4@  ]Fourthquarter1997 >4*:&!X3 G    ^>Totalunemployed ?5 P'"Y z@425z@?425 i_3P'"Z3 z@425 z@ p{@439p{@i439 H>3P'"[3 p{@439 p{@ H556(30.8) 'P'"\3 '561(27.8) ,"P'"]3 ^ G,<vvai  ] vvi  z<0 a Newjobseekers I?c(#^aa d@165d@I165 i_3c(#_3 d@165 d@ f@183f@i183 H>3c(#`3 f@183 f@ H237(43.6) 'c(#a3 '240(31.1) ,"c(#b3 G G,0 a Joblosers I?^)$caa 0p@2590p@I259 i_3^)$d3 0p@259 0p@ p@256p@i256 H>3^)$e3 p@256 p@ H319(23.2) '^)$f3 '321(25.4) ,"^)$g3 G G,Maleunemployed ?5 q*%h  r@290 r@?290 i_3q*%i3  r@290  r@ Pr@293Pr@i293 H>3q*%j3 Pr@293 Pr@ H352(21.4) 'q*%k3 '359(22.5) ,"q*%l3 G G,0 a Malenewjobseekers I?+&maa Z@104Z@I104 i_3+&n3 Z@104 Z@ [@111[@i111 H>3+&o3 [@111 [@ H138(32.7) '+&p3 '140(26.1) ,"+&q3 G G,0 a Malejoblosers I?,'raa @g@186@g@I186 i_3,'s3 @g@186 @g@ f@182f@i182 H>3,'t3 f@182 f@ H215(15.6) ','u3 '219(20.3) ,",'v3 G G,Femaleunemployed ?5 -(w `@134`@?134 i_3-(x3 `@134 `@ @b@146@b@i146 H>3-(y3 @b@146 @b@ H204(52.2) '-(z3 '56(38.4) ,"-({3 G G,0 a Femalenewjobseekers H>.*|aa  N@61N@H61 g]2.*}3  N@61 N@  Q@71Q@g71 G=2.*~3  Q@71 Q@ G100(63.9) '.*3 '29(40.8) ,".*3 G G,0 a Femalejoblosers H>/*aa  @R@73@R@H73 g]2/*3  @R@73 @R@  R@75R@g75 G=2/*3  R@75 R@ G105(43.8) '/*3 '27(36.0) @ //*3 G G@Source:ibid.<200, G   <Aw}?&&?&&&?&f 33  ?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.6.Unemploymentratebyagegroup0@//  ?&& f /     AT&&?Tf 33  *d d{ ""m""v%"v%",@,C,lC,?C,C+  6 %  GC6Agegroup ` OeC  0@1996C0@`1996 ` OAeC3 0@1996 0@  C`Fourthquarter1996 ` OeC3  4@1997C4@`1997 ` OAeC3 4@1997 4@  C`Fourthquarter1997 J@%eC3 G   GCJTotal XNdC @2.0C@X2.0 yo@dC3 @2.0 @ @2.0C@y2.0 yo@d C3 @2.0 @ @2.6C@y2.6 yo@d C3 @2.6 @ @2.6C@y2.6 kaFd C3 @2.6 G @ GCk1519 XNw C @7.5C@X7.5 yo@w C3 @7.5 @  @8.0C @y8.0 yo@wC3  @8.0  @ #@9.9C#@y9.9 zp@wC3 #@9.9 #@ '@11.8C'@z11.8 lbGwC3 '@11.8 G '@ GCl2024 XN- C @5.9C@X5.9 yo@- C3 @5.9 @ @6.2C@y6.2 yo@- C3 @6.2 @ @7.2C@y7.2 yo@- C3 @7.2 @ @7.4C@y7.4 kaF- C3 @7.4 G @ GCk2529 XN@ C 333333 @3.4C333333 @X3.4 yo@@ C3 333333 @3.4 333333 @ 333333 @3.4C333333 @y3.4 yo@@ C3 333333 @3.4 333333 @ ffffff@4.1Cffffff@y4.1 yo@@ C3 ffffff@4.1 ffffff@ @4.2C@y4.2 kaF@ C3 @4.2 G @ GCk3039 XNS C ffffff?1.4Cffffff?X1.4 yo@S C3 ffffff?1.4 ffffff? ffffff?1.4Cffffff?y1.4 yo@S C3 ffffff?1.4 ffffff? ffffff?1.9Cffffff?y1.9 yo@S C3 ffffff?1.9 ffffff? ?1.8C?y1.8 kaFS C3 ?1.8 G ? GCk4049 XNf  C ?1.1C?X1.1 yo@f !C3 ?1.1 ? ?1.1C?y1.1 yo@f "C3 ?1.1 ? ?1.5C?y1.5 yo@f #C3 ?1.5 ? ?1.5C?y1.5 kaFf $C3 ?1.5 G ? GCk5059 XNy %C ?0.9C?X0.9 yo@y &C3 ?0.9 ? ?0.9C?y0.9 yo@y 'C3 ?0.9 ? ?1.3C?y1.3 yo@y (C3 ?1.3 ? ?1.3C?y1.3 kaFy )C3 ?1.3 G ? GCkOver60 XN *C ?0.4C?X0.4 yo@ +C3 ?0.4 ? 333333?0.3C333333?y0.3 yo@ ,C3 333333?0.3 333333? ?0.8C?y0.8 yo@ -C3 ?0.8 ? ?0.9C?y0.9 q `F .C3 ?0.9 G ? GCqSource:ibid.8., /C G   8A'C?&&?&&&?&f 33  yNvv9vvi zvvai  z9   ` ////v  3333&&&&&&&&     Unemploymentwillalmostcertainlycontinuetoriseduringthecourseof1998,withthe \ 0 problemoflayoffslikelytoremainserious.AsurveyconductedbytheKoreaChamberofCommerceandIndustryinJanuaryrevealedthat12outofthetop30businessconglomeratesinthecountrywishedtodownsizeby20to50percent.Thisindicatesthathighlevelsoflaboursurpluscurrentlyexistinlargecompanies.TheGovernmenthasalsoannounceda10percentcutinpublicserviceemployment.ThelayoffregulationsadoptedinFebruary1998allowcompaniestolayoffworkersinemergencysituationssuchasfinancialproblems,mergersoracquisitions.Beforeresortingtolayoffs,however,theregulationsrequireemployerstoexploreallpossibleways(redeployment,cutsinwagesandinworkingtime,etc.)toavoidorminimizeredundancies.Sincetheregulationsstipulatethatmanagementmustgive60daysnoticebeforedismissingworkersandmakeapriorreporttotheMinistryofLabour,itistobeexpectedthatafterApriltherecouldbeasignificantincreaseinthenumberoflayoffs.  InJanuary1998boththeMinistryofFinanceandEconomyandtheMinistryofLabourestimatedthatunemploymentwillrisetoabout5percent(1.05millionunemployed)bytheendof1998.ThiswasbasedontheassumptionthatGDPgrowthwillbe1percent.Somenationalresearchinstituteshaveforecasta3percentdeclineinGDPfortheyear(seetable2.7),whichwouldbringtheunemploymentratetoover6percent.However,basedonthenoticeablejumpinunemploymentinJanuaryandFebruarytheMinistryofLabourhasrecentlypredictedthatthenumberofunemployedwillnowexceed1.5millionbetweenMarchandMay,withtheunemploymentratesoaringtoanewhighof7percent.  However,anumberofuncertaintiesremainoverhowunemploymentwillevolve.Amajoronethathasnotbeentakenintoaccountintheseestimatesistheimpactoflikelyindustryandenterpriselevelrestructuring(involvingmergers,takeoversandthemuchdiscussedbutsofarundecidedreformofthechaebolsystem).Thelevelofunemploymentwouldbeinfluencednot H% G onlybymacroeconomicperformanceoftheeconomybutalsobyhowenterprisesandwholeindustriesreorganizeproductionandtheirworkforces.  (`#J &   ?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.7.Majorindicators:EconomicforecastbytheDaewooandSamsungInstitutes//  ?&& f /     AT&&?Tf 33  *ud d@ClC?CCv%"v%", ,#,#,|#,#+  .   G. ] Le  0@19960@]1996  nAe3 0@1996 0@  4@19974@1997 ] LAe3 4@1997 4@  ]1998 e projectionbyDaewooInstitute ; *&3  ;1998 e projectionbySamsungInstitute 9/%& 3 G   ^9GDPgrowth(%) ?5 <  ffffff@7.1ffffff@?7.1 i_3< 3 ffffff@7.1 ffffff@ @5.7@i5.7 H>3< 3 @5.7 @ H3.0 '<3 '3.0 ,"<3 ^ G,Privateconsumption(%) 6, O  @6.9@66.9 WM*O  @6.9 @ ffffff@4.1ffffff@W4.1 6,*O  ffffff@4.1 ffffff@ 64.6  O  1.1 #O  G G#Investment(%) 6, b  ffffff@7.1ffffff@67.1 6,*b  ffffff@7.1 ffffff@ 63.6  b  19.1  b  24.5 #b  G G#ЀEquipmentinvestment(%) 6, u  333333@6.3333333@66.3 6,*u  333333@6.3 333333@ 61.0  u  14.8  u  33.0 &u  G G&ЀConstructioninvestment(%) F<  ffffff @8.2ffffff @F8.2 F<7   ffffff @8.2 ffffff @ F6.9 % ! %24.8 % " %18.0 8. # G  G8 % $ % % % % % & % % ' % 8.! ( G   G8Unemployment(%) F<) ) @2.0@F2.0 g]7) * @2.0 @ @2.6@g2.6 g]7) + @2.6 @ 333333@6.3333333@g6.3 g]7) , 333333@6.3 333333@ @6.2@g6.2 TJ=) - @6.2 G @ GTCPI(%) %< . % %< / % %< 0 % F<< 1 @7.5@F7.5 YO=< 2 @7.5 G @ GY %O 3 % %O 4 % %O 5 % %O 6 % 8.!O 7 G   G8Currentbalanceaccount(US$billion) %: 8 %237.2 %: 9 %88.5 %: : %14.6 E;: ;  O@62O@E62 PF<: <  O@62 G O@ GP' Balanceoftradeaccount(US$billion)  M = 152.8  M > 28.0 7- M ? W@95.4W@795.4 XN+M @ W@95.4 W@ Y@102Y@X102 D:0M A Y@102 G Y@ GDЀExports(US$billion)  `B 1297.3  `C 1366.0  `D 1435.7  `E 1393 #`F G G#Ѐ% 6, sG  @3.7 @63.7 WM*sH  @3.7  @ 333333@5.3333333@W5.3 WM*sI 333333@5.3 333333@ ffffff@5.1ffffff@W5.1 WM*sJ ffffff@5.1 ffffff@ @3.0@W3.0 D:0sK @3.0 G @ GDЀImports(US$billion)  )L 1503.3  )M 1446.0  )N 1380.9  )O 1291 #)P G G#Ѐ% 7- <Q &@11.3&@711.3 7-+<R &@11.3 &@ 73.8  <S 4.5  <T 7.0 #<U G G#Won/US$(average)  OV  8. OW 33333@949.933333@8949.9 8.,OX 33333@949.9 33333@ 8n.a.  OY 1300 7 &OZ G G7Source:DaewooEconomicInstitute,1997;SamsungEconomicResearchInstitute,1997.8.,b[ G    8AQ ?&&?&&&?&f 33  /?&&9H&&>/+&&9H&?&+/?&&9H&&Z/{? &?&@  ?  f 33    Thailand{& 3^}| }\ @&& @?&&&@&  f 33  +&&_&?&+  InThailand54,000workerswererecordedasretrenchedovertheperiodJanuary1997to f] February1998.Slightlymorewomenthanmenweremaderedundant.Thishoweverrepresentsonlyasmallpartoftheoverallpicture.Thereasonisthatthefigureof54,000reflectsonlythoselayoffsinwhichseverancepaymentsweremadeasreportedbylabourinspectionsoverthisperiodorthroughseverancepaydisputesbroughttotheattentionoftheauthoritiesthroughthelabourcourtsystem(table2.9).Theactualnumberofcrisisinducedlayoffsiswidelyassumedtobesubstantiallyhigher.Industryassociations,forexample,reportedjoblossesofsome422,000totheendof1997(table2.8).Overhalfofthese(or252,000)occurredintheconstructionindustry,withthebulkoftheremainder(151,000)occurringinmanufacturingindustries.Themanufacturingfigurecomesclosetoanotherjoblossfigure(165,000)fromtherecordsoftheSocialSecurityOffice(SSO).EmployercontributionstosocialsecurityarepayrollbasedandthereisthusastrongincentiveforemployerstoreportlayoffstotheSSO.ThereislikelytobeunderreportingoflayoffsfromSSOdataastherateofnon-compliancewithSSOregulationsmaybeashighas25percent.Takentogether,thevariousdatasourcesinThailandstronglysuggestthatthelayoffrateissubstantiallyhigherthanthefigureof54,000compensatedjoblosersintable2.9.  InJanuary1998agovernmentsurveyofworkersreturningtorural(nonmunicipal)areasplacedthefigureat188,000persons(table2.10).Comparedtoeachregionsruralpopulation,thehighestproportionreturnedtothenortheast.ThispatternofreturnmovementputspressurepreciselyontheweakestpartsoftheThaiagriculturalsector.Attheendof1997,thenorthandnortheastwerehitparticularlyhardbydrought.Theseregionsfurthermorehadevolvedaneconomyinwhichremittancesfromurbanareasplayedamajorroleinsustaininglivingstandards.  R/*t &   /?&&XXX&&/ 33?&&&?&?&?&f    Table2.8.Estimatednumberofjobleaversinprivateindustrialsectors   RRinthethirdandfourthquartersof1997 /V ???&&?f       33A?&?&??f 33  *udud ##|##v%"v%",; ,//#R,#,//#,U//#,^ ,4//#,v/#+  2 ! M G2Branchoftheeconomy P ?0%  PTotal  employmentinindustryassociationsample K >0-3  K ? .   ? @b Jobleavers @6(  G   G@  H   (  H  ( > -2 3  >Thirdquarter 2  (JulyOct.) ; * 3  ;@@++1LFourthquarter 2 @@0L(Oct.Jan.) ; *3  ; ; *2  ;@@!!BTotal ; *23  ;@@k$k$N$% <2%23 G   ^<9vv<ai zvvi z9'tIndustry < Chemical < Plastics̀ < Rubbertires  ' Ѐ < Printing k  Ѐ < Autoparts  i Ѐ < Electrical/electronic   Ѐ < Footwear N  Ѐ < Food %L  %@@ 620559  D @@  40000   @@ 101500 )  @@  39400  ' @@  57357 k   @@ 114102  i! @@ 120000@@   " @@  54000 N # 94200 %L $ % % D% %119620  D& 12000  ' 20300 ) ( !20000 k * 40000  i+ !@@)i2626 N - @@ee(i24492 +!L . +@@3L31837  D/ @@3LNonewjobs@@vv6L4000 ) 1 @@vv6L7880  '2 @@3LNonewjobs@@/Ln.a.@@HH5L12000@@LL8L  5 @@0Ln.a.@@HH5L10456 J@L 7  ?1?J1 D:5 D8  ?1 ? D@@A151457  D9 @@A12000  : @@A24300 ) ; @@  B7880  '< @@A20000 k = @@A40000  i> @@A12000  ? @@  B2620 N @ @@A34948 +!L A +24.41@@##L$30.00@@##L$24.00@@##L$20.00@@##L$34.87@@##L$35.06@@##L$10.00@@$$N$@@$$L$5.24@@##L$37.10 9/"L J ^  G9Services < Commercialbanking̀ < Financial2 D M Ѐ < Insurance B N Ѐ < Exporttrade  O Ѐ < Hotel %'P %321800 _ Q 122979  R 24594 D S 66317 B T n.a.108000 %'V % %_ W %9483 _ X @@*i615@@ii+i@@)i5304 D Z @@KK+i!@@KK+i!@@)i3564 +!'] +8080@@44B4 _ ^ @@3LNonewjobs@@LL8L@@vv6L6000@@44B4 D ` @@3LNonewjobs!@@44B4@@vv6L2089 +!'c + %_ d %@@A17572 _ e @@YYC615@@A11304 D g !!@@  B5653 +!'j +@@$$L$5.46@@$$L$0.50@@$$N$@@##L$45.96@@$$N$!@@$$N$!5.73 9/"'p G  G9Construction3 %:q %500000 %:r % %:s %@@ee(i87500 +!:t +@@5L165000 +!:u + %:v %@@A252500 ND:w @I@50.50@I@N@@##L$50.50 YOE:x @I@50.50 G @I@ GYTotal  My 1442449 !Mz ! !M{ !216603 !M| !204926 !M} ! !M~ !421520 >4M Q8=@29.22Q8=@>29.22 Z I2M Q8=@29.22 G Q8=@ GZ1Notincludingthoseintheautopartsindustrialgroup.2Surveydetailsfrom70companies,31Oct.1997. ` 3Mostofthejobleaversareagriculturalworkerswhocameinafterharvestingandwillgobacktotheirrural L villagesandlosetheiragriculturaljobs.Technicalnote:Jobleaversinclude:(i)thosewhosecontractsarenotrenewed;(ii)thosewhoareretrenched;(iii)voluntarydepartures.Source:CompiledbytheHumanResourcePlanningDivisionoftheNationalEconomicandSocialDevelopment r Board(NESDB)onthebasisofdatafromThailandIndustrialAssociation,ThailandChamberofCommerce,ThailandConstructionIndustryandothers.8., G    8A2?&&??&&&?&f 33  yNvv9vvi zvv<ai z9   ` ////v  3333?&&&?&&&&?&   9vvi  ] vvi z9?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.9.0  Layoffsbysectorandsexasrevealedbyestablishmentinspectionandlabour + courtrecords(January1997February1998)$0/   ?&& f  %" %"     AT&&?Tf 33  *o udd; //#R#//#U//#^ 4//#v/#uv%"v%", ,p#,#,p#,N#,pR,R,pR,R+  7 &  G7Sector C  P ?0u>O  P P ?0C3?O  PNumberofestablishmentsinspected K >0 a3  K ? .C  ?Layoffs B 1"C  BЈ P ?0CU   PЈ XN;CU  G    GX         (    ( ; *R3  ;ЀMale ; *R3  ; ; *R3  ;Female /%R3  /Ј    Ј 0&  G   /0                 $   $ 3) 3 3 3) 3 3 3) " 3 7-# " / G7Garments  3!  5+ 3!  8@248@524 5+)3!  8@24 8@ 5 6, 3! @@648@@6648 E;*3! @@648 @@ E 3)3!3 32120 3)3!3 3 3)3!" 3 2(3!" G G2Textile  F"  5+ F"  A@34A@534 ;1)F"  A@34 A@ ; !F" !1025 * F" * 3)F"3 33032 3)F"3 3 3)F"" 3 2(F"" G G2Shoesandleatherproducts  Y#  5+ Y#  2@182@518 5+)Y#  2@18 2@ 5 6, Y# H@521H@6521 E;*Y# H@521 H@ E 3)Y#3 31533 3)Y#3 3 3)Y#" 3 2(Y#" G G2Toys  l$  5+ l$  *@13*@513 5+)l$  *@13 *@ 5 5+ l$  U@86U@586 D:)l$  U@86 U@ D TJl$3 @514@T514 TJ9l$3 @514 @ T 3)l$" 3 2(l$" G G2Foodprocessing  %   5+ %   7@237@523 5+)%   7@23 7@ 5 6, %   @836 @6836 E;*%   @836  @ E 3)% 3 31803 3)% 3 3 3)% " 3 2(% " G G2Ornaments  &!  5+ &!  2@182@518 5+)&!  2@18 2@ 5 6, &! pt@327pt@6327 E;*&! pt@327 pt@ E TJ&!3 u@344u@T344 TJ9&!3 u@344 u@ T 3)&!" 3 2(&!" G G2Financial  '#  6, '# \@115\@6115 <2*'# \@115 \@ < !'# !2622 * '# * 3)'#3 33337 3)'#3 3 3)'#" 3 2('#" G G2Furnitureandwood  ($  5+ ($  G@46G@546 ;1)($  G@46 G@ ; !($ !2052 * ($ * TJ($3  @580 @T580 TJ9($3  @580  @ T 3)($" 3 2(($" G G2Electricalandelectronic  )(%  5+ )(%  E@42E@542 D:))(%  E@42 E@ D 3))(%3 31854 3))(%3 3 3))(%3 33025 3))(%3 3 3))(%" 3 2()(%" G G2Autosandautoparts  *;&  6, *;& Y@103Y@6103 <2**;& Y@103 Y@ < !*;& !3472 * *;& * 3)*;&3 31172 3)*;&3 3 3)*;&" 3 2(*;&" G G2Ironandsteel  +N'  5+ +N'  ?@31?@531 ;1)+N'  ?@31 ?@ ; !+N' !1074 * +N' * TJ+N'3 `j@211`j@T211 TJ9+N'3 `j@211 `j@ T 3)+N'" 3 2(+N'" G G2Services  -a(  6, -a(  [@111[@6111 6,*-a(  [@111 [@ 6 6, -a(  ؎@987؎@6987 E;*-a(  ؎@987 ؎@ E TJ-a( 3 Ј@794Ј@T794 TJ9-a(3 Ј@794 Ј@ T 3)-a(" 3 2(-a(" G G2Printingandadvertising  .t)  5+ .t)  3@193@519 D:).t)  3@19 3@ D TJ.t)3 @509@T509 TJ9.t)3 @509 @ T TJ.t)3  @498 @T498 TJ9.t)3  @498  @ T 3).t)" 3 2(.t)" G G2Construction  */*  6, */* @d@162@d@6162 <2**/* @d@162 @d@ < !*/* !3383 * */* * 3)*/*3 31270 3)*/* 3 3 3)*/*!" 3 2(*/*"" G G2Departmentstores/minimarts  =0+#  5+ =0+$  ?@31?@531 5+)=0+%  ?@31 ?@ 5 6, =0+& @560@6560 E;*=0+' @560 @ E 3)=0+(3 31340 3)=0+)3 3 3)=0+*" 3 6,"=0++" G  G6Transportation  7G  5+ 7G  2@182@518 5+)7G  2@18 2@ 5 5+ 7G  X@99X@599 D:)7G  X@99 X@ D SI7G3  >@30>@S30 SI87G3  >@30 >@ S 3)7G" 3 2(7G " G G2Concrete  JZ   5+ JZ   L@56L@556 ;1)JZ   L@56 L@ ; !JZ  !1598 * JZ * TJJZ3 P@682P@T682 TJ9JZ3 P@682 P@ T 3)JZ" 3 2(JZ" G G2Retail/wholesale  ] m  6, ] m `@134`@6134 6,*] m `@134 `@ 6 6, ] m Ќ@922Ќ@6922 E;*] m Ќ@922 Ќ@ E TJ] m3 @884@T884 TJ9] m3 @884 @ T 3)] m" 3 2(] m" G G2Plastics  p   5+ p   6@226@522 5+)p   6@22 6@ 5 6, p  X@907X@6907 E;*p   X@907 X@ E TJp !3 @659@T659 TJ9p "3 @659 @ T 3)p #" 3 2(p $" G G2Other   %  6,  & e@174e@6174 <2* ' e@174 e@ < ! ( !3248 *  ) * 3) *3 33338 3) +3 3 3) ," 3 5+ -" G G5 Total 4* . 4 C9% /3 C1189 C9% 03 C C9% 13 C26730 C9% 23 C C9% 33 C27166 C9% 43 C C9% 5" C53896 S B+ 6" G  G SSource:MinistryofLabourandSocialWelfare.8., 7 G     8Aing?&&?&&&?&f 33  9vvi ] vvi  z9?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.10.0 Unemployedandruralreturneesduringtheeconomicdownturn 9 (as 9 of 9 15January1998)*Z/    ?&& f : %" %"     AT&&?Tf 33  *m!ud ud p##p#N#pRRpRRo v%"v%", , , , +  .   ; G.Region ; * <  ;Unemployedinagriculture ; * >3  ;Unemployedinindustry ; * @3  ;Joblessworkers  A returningtoruralareas 9/% B3 G   ^9North   C 238103 ' D3 '43852 ' E3 '47075 ," F3 ^ G,Northeast   G 517099 ' H3 '57157 ' I3 '101413 ," J3 G G,Central  K 33221 'L3 '41598 'M3 '25493 ,"N3 G G,South  O 25090 'P3 '12273 'Q3 '14283 5+R3 G G5Total 'S '813513 'T3 '154880 'U3 '188264 @ /V3 G G@Source:MinistryoftheInterior.8.,W G    8A-ing?&&?&&&?&f 33  yNvv6vvi zvvi 6   ` ////v  3333&&&&&&&&     Itcanbenotedthatofthe54,000workerslaidoffbetweenJanuary1997andFebruary1998 X (table2.9)theconsumergoodsanddurablesmanufacturingsubsectorsaccountedforsome49percent,intermediategoodsandconstructionsome8percenteach,andfinancialservicessome11percent.  AsevidencedbytherisingpresenceofmigrantworkersinThailandinthe1990s,thecountryhadvirtuallyattainedfullemploymentpriortotheonsetoftheeconomicdifficulties.Byend1997,however,unemploymentmayhavereached1.15millionorapproximately3.5percentofthelabourforce.TheGovernmentnowforecastsariseinunemploymenttojustunder2millionbytheendof1998andanunemploymentrateof5.6percent(table2.11).Thisforecast,however,assumesazeropercentgrowthrate.Atthetimeofwriting(midMarch1998),theThaiauthoritieswererevisingtheirunemploymentforecastsonthebasisofanassumedgrowthratefor1998of3.5percent. I$Yc   BothunemploymentandunderemploymenthavecustomarilybeenverylowinThailand.Unemploymentwasrecordedas2.1percentintheFebruary1996labourforcesurveyand1.1percentinAugust.Thosewhoworkedlessthan35hoursperweekandwantedmoreworkaccountedfor2.5percentofthelabourforce,orsome750,000personsin1996.ThecustomarilylowrecordedlevelsofunemploymentsuggestgreatresilienceandflexibilityintheThailabourforce,sothatjoblossesaremostlikelytoshowupasincreasedunderemployment,andlowearnings.Ifcompetitionforworktakestheformofasharingofworkinghoursinselfemploymentthroughinvoluntaryunderemployment,then750,000laidoffworkers,forexample,couldquadrupletherecordedrateofunderemployment.  #-3&m & [    33?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.11.Estimatedlabourforce,employmentandunemployment,199798  i i i  (thousands) I>Z/V  ?&& f       332>AT&&?Tf 33  *b"dud    m!v%"v%",J ,#,#,#,#,#+  .  M G. ; *  ;1996*  averagefigure ; *#3  ; ] L3  4@19974@]1997 ] LA3 4@1997 4@  ] ] L3  8@19988@]1998 [QG 3 8@1998 G 8@  G[?v v i  ] vvi z?1.  Economicgrowth(%) 9/ "  @5.5@95.5 C97"  @5.5 @ C 6, "  333333?0.6333333?60.6 6,*"  333333?0.6 333333? 6 ) " # )0.0 7-#" # G  G72.  Totalpopulation  5  60003  5    5  60602  5    5  61201 #5  G G#3.  Aged13yearsandover  H  45837  H    H  46543  H    H  47240 #H  G G#4.  Totallabourforce  [  32381  [    [  32553  [    [   32745 #[ ! G G#5.  Newentrants 6, n " ~@488~@6488 6,*n # ~@488 ~@ 6 6, n $ 0}@4670}@6467 6,*n % 0}@467 0}@ 6 6, n & ~@489~@6489 D:0n ' ~@489 G ~@ GD6.  Employed   ( 31220   )    * 30822   +    , 30159 # - G G#7.  Unemployed 6,  . 0@4990@6499 6,* / 0@499 0@ 6   0 1153   1    2 1836 # 3 G G#  Openunemployment 6,  4 \@115\@6115 6,* 5 \@115 \@ 6 6,  6 Pv@357Pv@6357 6,* 7 Pv@357 Pv@ 6 6,  8 8@6798@6679 D:0 9 8@679 G 8@ GD  Notlookingforworkbutavailable 6,  : x@384x@6384 6,* ; x@384 x@ 6 6,  < @796@6796 6,* = @796 @ 6   > 1157 # ? G G#8.  Seasonallyinactive 6, * @ @662@6662 6,** A @662 @ 6 6, * B @578@6578 6,** C @578 @ 6 6, * D p@750p@6750 D:0* E p@750 G p@ GDЀ  Offseason(February)  =F 1160  =G   =H 1036  =I   =J 1350 #=K G G#  Inseason(August) 6, PL d@164d@6164 6,*PM d@164 d@ 6 6, PN ^@120^@6120 6,*PO ^@120 ^@ 6 6, PP b@150b@6150 D:0PQ b@150 G b@ GD9.  Notinlabourforce  cR 13456  cS   cT 113990  cU   cV 14495 #cW G G#10.  Agedunder13years  vX 14166  vY   vZ 14059  v[   v\ 13961 #v] G G#11.  Totalunemploymentrate(%) 7- ,^ p= ף?1.54p= ף?71.54 7-+,_ p= ף?1.54 p= ף? 7 7- ,` RQ @3.54RQ @73.54 7-+,a RQ @3.54 RQ @ 7 6, ,b ffffff@5.6ffffff@65.6 D:0,c ffffff@5.6 G ffffff@ GD  Openunemploymentrate(%) 7- ?d  ףp= ?0.36 ףp= ?70.36 7-+?e  ףp= ?0.36  ףp= ? 7 7- ?f ?1.10?71.10 7-+?g ?1.10 ? 7 7- ?h (\@2.07(\@72.07 E;1?i (\@2.07 G (\@ GE  Notlookingforworkbutavailable(%) 7- Rj  ףp= ?1.19 ףp= ?71.19 7-+Rk  ףp= ?1.19  ףp= ? 7 7- Rl Q@2.44Q@72.44 7-+Rm Q@2.44 Q@ 7 7- Rn = ףp= @3.53= ףp= @73.53 E;1Ro = ףp= @3.53 G = ףp= @ GE12.  Labourforceparticipationrate(%) 8. ep )\Q@70.64)\Q@870.64 8.,eq )\Q@70.64 )\Q@ 8 8. er \(|Q@69.94\(|Q@869.94 8.,es \(|Q@69.94 \(|Q@ 8 8. et GzTQ@69.32GzTQ@869.32 Z I2eu GzTQ@69.32 G GzTQ@ GZ*Averageoflabourforcesurveyfigures"1stRound,Feb.and3rdRound,Aug.1996.NationalStatistics xv Office(NSO)dataadjustedbytheHumanResourceDevelopmentdivisionoftheNESDB.Source:SubcommitteeonLabourForce,EmploymentandUnemploymentestimation(NSO,MinistryofLabour :y andThailandDevelopmentResearchInstitute(TDRI),Jan.1998).8.,lz G    8A/@ G?&&?&&&?&f 33  '[ >  Likemanycountriesintheregion,Thailandhasrecordedarelativelyhighunemploymentrateforthosewithuppersecondaryeducation,andaverylowrateforthosewithsomeorcompletedelementaryeducation.Thisshedslightontheemploymentprospectsofcurrentschoolleavers.Everyyearover500,000youngpeopleleaveschoolwithsomeorcompletedelementaryeducation.Fewofthesewouldnormallyexperienceatimewhentheycouldberecordedasunemployed.Datasuggestthatamongthenewentrantsinthelabourmarket,femaleunemploymentwillbehigherthanamongthemales.ThiscorrespondsverycloselywiththeunemploymentsituationamongyouthintheLabourForceSurvey,1996.Womenpredominateinthecategoriesthathavebeensingledoutforhighunemployment,suchasvocationallevelgraduates,upperandsecondaryschoolstudents(agebracket1324years).Femalestudentswithtechnical/vocationaltraininghadthehighestemploymentrate,4.2percentascomparedto3.3percentformales(LabourForceSurvey,1996).Afurther130,000orsoleaveafterlowersecondary,andperhapsnearly200,000eitheraftersecondaryorafterfailingtocompletetertiaryeducation(universitydropouts).Thisgroupisprobablymostatriskoffailingtofindworkandofaddingtothenumberofrecordedunemployed.Inadditionupto100,000tertiarygraduatesleavetheeducationsystemannually.Theytoowillinevitablyexperiencelongerspellsofunemployment,eveniftheyshouldbeinabetterpositionthandropouts.Theseschoolleaversintheirlateteensandearly20swillnotstayintheunemploymentpoolforaslongaseconomicstagnationlasts;theywillnodoubtfindandacceptotherwork.Butwhereasin1996some2percentofall15to19yearoldsand3percentofall20to24yearoldswereunemployed,theseratescoulddoubleandtriple,respectively,in1998. 10+ ЇJ    &&&&Hf &&f 33    2.3.RealwagesJ&dason d 1 1   j  Hf&& jf 33  {l &&@  l  f 33    RepublicofKorea{eason 'f^+  @&& @&&&@&  f 33    IntheRepublicofKorearealwageshadbeenrisingatarecordpaceoverthepastthree r decades,exceptduringthesecondoilcrisisperiod.Since1997,however,therateofgrowthofrealwagesdeceleratedsignificantly,from6.6percentinthefirstquarterto5.5percentinthesecondquarterto2.7percentinthethirdquarter.Thechangeinrealwagesrecordedinthefourthquarterof1997immediatelyafterthefinancialcrisiswas2.3percent(table2.12).  7 &  ?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.12.Wagetrends(nonagriculturalindustries)9i4ye/ p A  ?&& f  p     AT&&?Tf 33  *n#ddJ #####b"v%"v%",h ,> , ,> , ,  , , , , , , +  2 ! _  G2 r a0I ߀kV  ,@1995,@r1995 r aRI 3߀lV ,@1995 ,@  r r a0I 3߀mV  0@19960@r1996 m `RI 3߀ 0@1996 0@  m a PI   4@19974@a1997 bXJI  4@1997 G 4@  Gb  ^    ^    ^   (  ^  ( ; *H 3  ;Firstquarter ; *4 3  ; ; *H 3  ;Secondquarter ; *4 3  ; ; *H 3  ;Thirdquarter ; *4 3  ; ; *H 3  ;Fourthquarter B8%4 3 G   ^B' -iTotalwage(000won/month) '  '1222 'J 3 ' 'J 3 '1368 'J 3 ' 'J !3 '1430 'J "3 ' 'J #3 '1401 'J $3 ' 'J %3 '1543 'J &3 ' 'J '3 '! 5+J (3 ^ G5Nominalwage(000won/month) I?B* ffffff&@11.2ffffff&@I11.2 I?4 +3 ffffff&@11.2 ffffff&@ I I? ,3 '@11.9'@I11.9 I?4 -3 '@11.9 '@ I I? .3 333333'@11.6333333'@I11.6 I?4 /3 333333'@11.6 333333'@ I H> 03 ffffff#@9.7ffffff#@H9.7 H>3 13 ffffff#@9.7 ffffff#@ H H> 23 333333@6.8333333@H6.8 H>3 33 333333@6.8 333333@ H H> 43 ?0.9?H0.9 VL9 53 ?0.9 G ? GVConsumerpriceindex(%change) H>S7 @4.5@H4.5 H>3U83 @4.5 @ H H>U93 @5.0@H5.0 H>3U:3 @5.0 @ H H>U;3 @4.7@H4.7 H>3U<3 @4.7 @ H H>U=3 @4.0@H4.0 H>3U>3 @4.0 @ H H>U?3 @4.0@H4.0 H>3U@3 @4.0 @ H H>UA3  @3.2 @H3.2 VL9UB3  @3.2 G  @ GVRealwage(%change) H> fC @6.4@H6.4 H>3 fD3 @6.4 @ H H> fE3 ffffff@6.6ffffff@H6.6 H>3 fF3 ffffff@6.6 ffffff@ H H> fG3 ffffff@6.6ffffff@H6.6 H>3 fH3 ffffff@6.6 ffffff@ H H> fI3 @5.5@H5.5 H>3 fJ3 @5.5 @ H H> fK3 @2.7@H2.7 H>3 fL3 @2.7 @ H ' fM3 '2.3 @ / fN3 G G @Sources:QuarterlyLabourReview,Vol.10,No.4(KoreanLabourInstitute,1997),andunpublisheddatafrom yO theKoreanLabourInstitute(KLI).8., P G     8Aj5.0?&&?&&&?&f 33    ThetotalwageintheRepublicofKoreagenerallyconsistsofthreeelements:thebasicwage,overtimepremiumandbonus.Thebonuselement,whichnormallyaccountsforabout23percentofthetotalwage,registereda14.6percentdecreaseinthefourthquarterof1997,whilethebasicwageandtheovertimewageshowednominalchangesof+7.2percentand3.1percent, UT respectively(table2.13). 33?&&&&?&?&f    Table2.13.Trendsofwagecomponents(nonagriculturalindustries) 9W  i i i (000won/month) ǂt/  ?&& f X      33AT&&?Tf 33  *t$d dh >  >