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Tourism and Aviation in crisis
Faced with the devastating impacts of the attacks of September 11, and the tourism and aviation industries were centre stage at two unprecedented back-to-back crisis meetings held at the ILO recently. While predicting dire consequences, participants also acknowledge that recovery might take years and there were no "quick fix" solutions. The ILO will continue its efforts to analyse and respond to the needs of these and other sectors in 2002
GENEVA - Things were already getting bad when they got worse - much worse - for tourism and aviation in September - both sectors were already feeling the pinch of economic downturn when September 11 occurred. Since then, tourism and aviation have faced sudden and massive downturns which translate into job losses, current and potential.
In this atmosphere, the ILO called two crisis meetings in October to assess the impact of the attacks and make recommendations for future action. What was clear, though from the start, was that there would neither be a quick fix nor a "one-size-fits-all" solution. Clearly, the sectors were heading for troubled times.
"They have had a unique, unprecedented, devastating and immediate impact," said Jean Jacques Elmiger, a top official at Switzerland's State Secretariat for Economic Affairs who chaired both meetings.
Tourism and Aviation Economy Sees Major Jobs Loss
A report prepared for the meeting estimated that some 9 million workers in the global hotel and tourism economy, already reeling from the recession, may lose their jobs in the wake of the September 11 attacks. The report said an estimated 10 per cent reduction in tourism would mean 8.8 million jobs lost worldwide, including 1.1 million in the United States and 1.2 million in the European Union.
The survey suggested US job losses could reach up to 3.8 million, depending on how travellers reacted in the coming months. Some 207 million people worldwide work in the travel and tourism sector, equivalent to about 8 per cent of global employment estimated at about 2.5 billion.
Jobs affected immediately, in both developed and poorer countries, include marginal, part-time or shift labour in hotels, ground tour and excursion companies, the catering trade, travel agents, tour operators, cruise ship operators and service industries such as specialized retailing, ancillary airport employment and taxi services. While the short-impact will be severe, the report said the long-term impact would depend on further events and whether the industry can recover quickly from the unprecedented fallout and worldwide impact of September 11.
Prior to September 11, economic recession was weakening travel demand, the report said. After growth of 7.4 per cent in 2000, the World Tourism Organization had predicted growth of 2.5 to 3 per cent in 2001, but had since reduced this estimate to 1.5 to 2 per cent. Added the report, the impact had worsened since September 11 because travel and tourism is "by common consent, the most vulnerable of all sectors to the threat of insecurity."
"To this economic environment has been added uncertainty; travellers' instinct is now to stay close to home," the report said.
In the aviation sector, the news was equally grim. The air transport industry employs some four million people worldwide, of which more than 200,000 have lost their jobs or will in the immediate future. The ILO also said the post-September 11 crisis is expected to have a disruptive impact on all segments of the industry, from employment to incomes, technology to investment as well as restructuring including partnerships and global alliances.
What to do?
In response, the ILO meetings urged a series of measures.
In the hotel and tourism sector, government, employer and worker experts called for operational measures that included underlining the need for cooperation, not confrontation; the need to recognize the importance of tourism for national and global economies; and to undertake additional measures to complement existing social safety nets.
They also called for action by employers and workers organizations including commitments by the social partners to seek mutually agreed ways to extend employment, avoid and limit employment losses and, wherever possible, to give priority to reintegrating workers facing short-term job losses as a result of the crisis.
The meeting called on the ILO to review and evaluate training programmes in view of present day needs and the crisis situation, specifically those aimed at the hotel and tourism sector, with particular regard for such activities within smaller and medium-sized enterprises.
In the aviation sector, the "think tank" group of independent and industry experts , as well as representatives of airlines and unions, called for measures including a review of the economic and regulatory framework for all segments of the industry; a new focus on safety and security to restore confidence; action by governments, employers and workers to mitigate the job and income losses and retain skills; and closer collaboration between international organizations to deal with the mid-and long-term effects of the crisis, respecting the mandates of the various organizations.
How long for a recovery? In the aviation sector, at least, officials said "years." In this light, the ILO planned to discuss the aviation sector further at a Tripartite Meeting on Civil Aviation: Social and Safety Consequences of the Crisis Subsequent to the 11 September Events, to be held in Geneva from 21-25 January 2002.