BackgroundThe objective of inclusive and sustainable job-rich growth in Indonesia is outlined in the Indonesian Government's commitment to "pro-jobs" and "pro-poor" growth within its development agenda. To support the realization of job rich growth, it is important that medium term development strategies plan for job creation. Using models to establish employment projections are an important part of planning for employment. In support of mid-term planning, the ILO has prepared employment projections from three models, namely:
- The ILO's Global employment trends model (GET Model) produces estimates for unemployment, employment growth, status in employment and employment by sector, disaggregated by age and sex for 178 countries.
- The exponential smoothing with damped trends (ESWDT) model based on historical trends for industry and occupations (1996-2013). It is based on the methods from the Department of Employment, Australia and projections are provided for 2014-2019.
- The ILO Employment Trends Unit's country specific employment projections model, which is used to analyze policy simulations and is based on an input-output table and detailed information on employment by sector.
In addition, the information from employment projection models can be used by labour market institutions that have a role in providing career counselling and labour market information for facilitating the matching between supply and demand. Furthermore, employment projections models can be used to project long-term sectoral and occupational employment, and thus can be used to address skills mismatch and inform educational and training reforms that may be required. Therefore, in order to optimize the utility and accuracy of employment projections, it is important to work in coordination with units and agencies that are responsible for labour market information systems.
- The Ministry of Manpower and Transmigration engages in a technical review and validation of employment projections produced for the context of medium term planning.
- The Ministry of Manpower and Transmigration identifies strategies for using employment projections to strengthen labour market information systems.