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Labour Market Security Index
Definition Labour market security arises from an environment in which there are ample opportunities for adequate income-earning activities, or where "supply" approximates "demand". As such, it is about the structure of opportunities as much as about the overall level. It is also about expectations, in that security arises from expecting that opportunities will improve, or if already good will stay that way.
A Labour Market security index To monitor patterns and international differences, we have constructed a Labour Market Security Index (LMSI), intended to take account of policy commitments, instruments for providing opportunities for labour market security, and outcomes.

 

Input indicators The input indicators are primarily selected on the basis of an institutional embedding of a commitment towards provision of labour market security. These are:
  • Whether or not the country has ratified ILO Convention No.122 on full employment;
  • Whether or not the government or constitution of the country has a formal commitment to "full employment"; and
  • The existence of an unemployment social security scheme and of legislation banning gender discrimination in recruitment.
Process indicators The process indicators are selected to determine the commitment of governments, in practice. The identification of such indicators is problematic, but the idea here is to capture "commitment" through some measures such as:
  • The existence or otherwise of a public employment service to help labour demand meet supply of jobs, both quantitatively through information dissemination and qualitatively through retraining and other skills-based initiatives;
  • The public consumption per head of the working age population as a proxy for the importance of the public sector as an employer;
  • As a measure of economic opportunity, the average annual growth rate of GDP during the previous decade and the coefficient of variation of annual GDP growth, to indicate how potentially favourable the market is for additional employment opportunities. It is assumed here that the more intensive the economic activity, the higher the probability of getting a job and securing an income; and
  • Gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP. Investment is an important engine for growth and the component of final demand that is most likely to generate new jobs. The indicator has therefore been included to separate countries that devote a larger share of their income to the expansion of their productive capacity, from those whose commitment is low.
Outcome indicators The outcome indicators were selected to capture the results of national economic policy and performance with respect to the labour market. Attempts have been made in spite of data limitations to include measures of success and failure of the different labour markets, notably in the formal and informal economies.
The basic outcome indicator of labour market security is the unemployment rate, but this is relatively unsatisfactory in "transition" economies and in agrarian countries with extensive "informal" activities. Accordingly, the unemployment rate is coupled with a set of indicators that together portray a pattern of opportunities, taking special account of gender inequalities.

  • The variables include
  • the unemployment rate,
  • the ratio of male to female unemployment,
  • employment as a percent of the working-age population,
  • the ratio of female to male employment,
  • the wage employment share of all those in income-earning activities,
  • the female share of wage employment,
  • the average annual growth of employment between 1990 and 1999.
  • Finally, a "dummy" variable is added, with a value of 0 if the country is known to have a high level of unpaid or partially paid "administrative leave", a value of 1 if that is not the case. A value of 1 is given to "transition" countries of eastern Europe and to China, where millions of workers appear to have labour market and employment security but are actually on extended lay-off.
Coverage Labour Market Security Index covers 94 countries.
Clusters

The developed countries of western Europe, along with Canada and Japan, dominate the list of Pacesetters. These are countries that have a strong constitutional and policy commitment to social welfare, even though the welfare state has been under strain.

Among the Pragmatists are some developed countries such as the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Luxembourg and Switzerland, which one might have expected to qualify as Pacesetters. Being Pragmatist indicates a lack of policy commitment to labour market security. Admittedly, the reasonably high scores on outcome may indicate that all is well, but under the circumstance this is puzzling, and may require further investigation. In the case of some of the transition countries, such as the Republic of Moldova, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, there is reason to believe that further investigation would reveal a large amount of hoarded labour and extensive underemployment. Another notable country among the Pragmatists is Brazil, which has lost a large number of manufacturing jobs in recent years.

As expected, the poorer developing economies of Asia and Africa head the list of countries with low levels of labour market security. The sheer scale of numbers or the lack of capacity militate against better outcomes. However, any policy aimed at promoting labour market security must endeavour to develop an institutional infrastructure.

The Conventionals are true to form, although the inclusion of southern European countries seems confusing as they are economies where unemployment levels have fallen significantly, notably in Spain. The transition economies of eastern Europe and China owe a lot to the past where a commitment to full employment was enshrined in the constitution. Although many seem to have kept that commitment, transformational problems have multiplied. The positions occupied by countries of eastern Europe and central Asia might be unexpected, but reflect realities. For example, some qualify as Conventionals because many laws from the Soviet period, although not strictly applied, are still in effect. But in practice most laws and codes on employment have been dismantled, reflecting the drift to a market economy.

Additional outputs Factsheets:

Security dimensions
Labour Market Insecurity: Lost in global statistics
Employment Insecurity: Why neither formal nor informal my be best for workers
Skills Insecurity: Why "human capital" will not do
Work Insecurity: Work-related ill health
Income Insecurity: Neglected aspects of poverty and inequality
Weak Collective Voice leaves Workers Insecure: New forms of voice still limited

Regional perspective
Africa: Insecurities compound poverty
South and South-East Asia: Economic security exceedss income share
Eastern Europe and CIS: Unpaid wages, lost benefits and concealed unemployment
Latin America and the Caribbean: Lower and most unstable growth intensify insecurities - Huge majorities favour redistribution and basic security
Economic Insecurities in Rich countries: Western Europe still sets lead, but slipping

Transversal issues
"Targeting" the Poor is Poor Policy: Support for security and equality strong
Women face more Economic Insecurity

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