Understanding how and why communities use migration for risk management
- Responsible Organisations: CARE International (Civil society); United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) (Civil society)
- ILO Regions: Africa; Americas; Asia and the Pacific; Global
- Country(ies): Bangladesh; Ghana; Guatemala; India; Peru; Tanzania, United Republic of; Thailand; Viet Nam
- Thematic areas: Evidence-based policy making
- MLFLM: 3.
There is a lack of evidence, and thus a dearth of policies, looking at the circumstances in which households use migration as a risk management strategy when facing environmental change. The action research project 'Where the Rain Falls: Climate Change, Food and Livelihood Security, and Migration', undertaken in partnership between CARE International and the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), and financially supported by the AXA Group and the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, was devised to develop an analytical framework for understanding how migration is used for risk management. The research across eight very diverse research sites (Bangladesh, Ghana, Guatemala, India, Peru, Tanzania, Thailand and Vietnam) was carried out through 1,300 household surveys and participatory community research involving 2,000 individuals in villages vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The field research was used to develop a Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model that offers insights into potential future household migration decisions under different rainfall variability scenarios, and presents preliminary results for the research site in Tanzania. Using the Rainfalls Agent-Based Migration Model the researchers were able to forecast possible migration patterns under different rainfall scenarios from 2014-2040 and could provide global and national level policy and practice recommendations to enable poor populations to make informed, resilience-enhancing decisions about migration, adaptation, and food security. The Project represents a key next step in research to understand in greater detail how climatic stressors interact with society today, and how households adjust behaviour to manage these challenges and survive.