| Document ID (ISN) | 101776 |
| CIS number |
03-858 |
| ISSN - Serial title |
0095-6562 - Aviation, Space, and Environmental Medicine |
| Year |
2003 |
| Convention or series no. |
|
| Author(s) |
Wissler E.H. |
| Title |
Probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water |
| Bibliographic information |
Jan. 2003, Vol.74, No.1, p.47-55. Illus. 33 ref. |
| Abstract |
This paper describes a theoretical approach to estimating the probability of survival during accidental immersion in cold water. The human thermal model is used to compute the central temperature during immersion in cold water. Simultaneously, a survival probability function is computed by solving a differential equation that defines how the probability of survival decreases with increasing time. The survival equation assumes that the probability of occurrence of a fatal event increases as the victim's central temperature decreases. Generally accepted views of the medical consequences of hypothermia and published reports of various accidents provide information useful for defining a "fatality function" that increases exponentially with decreasing central temperature. The particular function suggested in this paper yields a relationship between immersion time for 10% probability of survival and water temperature that agrees very well with empirical observations based on World War II data. |
| Descriptors (primary) |
drowning; cold water; survival |
| Descriptors (secondary) |
probability analysis; body-core temperature; mathematical models; fatalities; regulation of body temperature |
| Document type |
D - Periodical articles |
| Country / State or Province | USA |
| Subject(s) |
Heating, ventilation and climate
|
| Broad subject area(s) |
Physical hazards
|
| Browse category(ies) |
Heat and cold
|
